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NHL Under Chase System

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Prospect
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Posted: #51
good stuff Rob
 
Prospect
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Posted: #52
Lets do this 
 
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Posted: #53
Please clarify something for me. If you have a team playing their C game of the chase and a team playing their A game in the same game, what would be the total base units played on this game?


Thanks.

Good Luck.
 
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Posted: #54
wow some game is playing double unit!!!
 
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Posted: #55
You'd wager 4 units on the game...


Quote Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Please clarify something for me. If you have a team playing their C game of the chase and a team playing their A game in the same game, what would be the total base units played on this game?


Thanks.

Good Luck.
 
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Posted: #56
^^^^ Correction, you'd wager 5 units on the game...
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by robwalton:

System is 23-0                 +79.25

Teams we are chasing

Rangers [B], Colorado [A], Columbus [B], NJ [A] [A], Montreal [A], LA [A], Philly [A], TB [B], Florida [B], Detroit [A], Minny [A], Boston [A], Chicago [A], Toronto [A]

Games tonight

Dallas / Columbus [B] Under 5.5  -135 10 to win 7.40

Florida [B] / Washington Under 5.5 -120 10 to win 8.30

Carolina / Boston [A] Under 5.5 -130       5 to win 3.85

Pittsburgh / Minny [A] Under 5.5 -143      5 to win 3.50

Philly [A] / Ottawa Under 5.5 -110           5 to win 4.55

Buffalo / Montreal [A] Under 5.5 -130       5 to win 3.85

Chicago [A] / Phoenix Under 5.5 -118      5 to win 4.25

Rangers [B] / Vancouver Under 5.5 -147   10 to win 6.80

St. Louis / LA [A]             Under 5.5 -143  5 to win 3.50

 
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Posted: #58
System is 29-0                 +97.95

Teams we are chasing

Colorado [A], NJ [A] [A], Philly [B], TB [B], Detroit [A], Minny [B], Chicago [B], Toronto [A]

Games tonight

Winnipeg / Toronto [A] -110 5 to win 4.55

 
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Posted: #59
Well done last night. Thanks for posting.

Good Luck.
 
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Posted: #60
winnipeg and toronto are under 5.5, forgot to put that
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by robwalton:

winnipeg and toronto are under 5.5, forgot to put that


Is Winn/Tor under an [A] bet?

Thanks
 
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Posted: #62
yes just check post 58 and u will see what teams we are chasing
 
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Posted: #63
Gotcha

Thank you and BOL!
 
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Posted: #64

Quote Originally Posted by k-murder:

I was doing the analysis on how this strategy performed in the past few seasons - I used covers for odds, etc. This differs a little bit (but not materially) from what rob posted:

2011: 33-0
2010: 536-9 (552-8)
2009: 538-5
2008: 508-17
2007: 457-5
2006: 475-11
2005: 484-7

I think the reason for the difference is because if the bet was "Push" I ended the bet - primarily because I did a quick analysis and didn't do that extra step.

Thanks for backtesting this.. this year its 29-0 not 33-0, i just doubled checked myself. so lets say if Toronto is playing a game and its a {B] game for them and the game ends in a push, there next game, it will be a [B] game also.. i will check out 2008 tomorrow see if i can see anything that cause that many loses

 
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Posted: #65
 
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Posted: #66
So for tomorrow do we still chase if the under is 5 for a couple of the games?  I am looking and Minn game and Toronto is at U5. Thanks
 
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Posted: #67
As far as I've understood, if the O/U is 5 as opposed to 5.5 or 6 - it's still a valid play. Rob has done a few bets with the total being 5, so there shouldn't be a filter there, not as of yet anyway.
 
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Posted: #68
System is 29-0                 +92.95

Teams we are chasing

Colorado [A], NJ [A] [A], Philly [B], TB [B], Detroit [A], Minny [B], Chicago [B], Toronto [B], Winnipeg [A]

Games tonight

Toronto [B] / Boston Under 5  +113   10 to win 11.30

Washington / Philly [B] Under 5.5 -111  10 to win 9

Islanders / Tb [B]   Under 5.5  +105 10 to win 10.50

Winnipeg [A] / Ottawa Under 6 -118 5 to win 4.25

Chicago [B] / Colorado [A] Under 5.5 -106  15 to win 14.10

Minny [B] / Edmonton Under 5 +105  10 to win 10.50

 
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Posted: #69

Quote Originally Posted by lucky001:

So for tomorrow do we still chase if the under is 5 for a couple of the games?  I am looking and Minn game and Toronto is at U5. Thanks

Yeah we still chase if the total is 5. i believe were 2-0 so far on Under 5 games, but if they start to give us a hard time, maybe we can come up with a filter like giantone suggested, but as of now they are plays

 
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Posted: #70

Quote Originally Posted by TheEtrain:

good stuff Rob

thanks Etrain, i like what your doing in your thread, keep up the good work

 
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Posted: #71

Winnipeg should be a B tonight right, since they lost last night?  Thanks

BOL

 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by lucky001:

Winnipeg should be a B tonight right, since they lost last night?  Thanks

BOL

nope Winnipeg is a A play tonight, we werent chasing Winnipeg last night just Toronto

 
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Posted: #73

Quote Originally Posted by k-murder:

You're right, you are 29-0. Wrong equation in excel. Anyways, here's the fixed results from past seasons (sorry for the error):

2011: 29-0
2010: 567-12 (552-8)
2009: 559-8
2008: 528-22
2007: 518-13
2006: 527-17
2005: 524-18
Total: 3,252-90

I have a question how are u counting each year.. are u counting playoffs too. also are counting OT/SO games within the last 5 games of the year for the team, cause if so u shouldnt be since this is a 5 game chase. i just recounted 2010 and i got my previous total 552-8, for 2009 i have a record of 535-5 and for 2008 515-17

 
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Posted: #74
System is 29-0                 +92.95

Teams we are chasing

Colorado [A], NJ [A] [A], Philly [B], TB [B], Detroit [A], Minny [B], Chicago [B], Toronto [A] [B], Winnipeg [A]

Games tonight

Toronto [B] / Boston Under 5  +113   10 to win 11.30

Washington / Philly [B] Under 5.5 -111  10 to win 9

Islanders / Tb [B]   Under 5.5  +105 10 to win 10.50

Winnipeg [A] / Ottawa Under 6 -118 5 to win 4.25

Chicago [B] / Colorado [A] Under 5.5 -106  15 to win 14.10

Minny [B] / Edmonton Under 5 +105  10 to win 10.50

Toronto [A] / Boston Under 5  +127 5 to win 6.35

Forgot to add the Toronto A game

 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by robwalton:

System is 29-0                 +92.95

Teams we are chasing

Colorado [A], NJ [A] [A], Philly [B], TB [B], Detroit [A], Minny [B], Chicago [B], Toronto [A] [B], Winnipeg [A]

Games tonight

Toronto [B] / Boston Under 5  +113   10 to win 11.30

Washington / Philly [B] Under 5.5 -111  10 to win 9

Islanders / Tb [B]   Under 5.5  +105 10 to win 10.50

Winnipeg [A] / Ottawa Under 6 -118 5 to win 4.25

Chicago [B] / Colorado [A] Under 5.5 -106  15 to win 14.10

Minny [B] / Edmonton Under 5 +105  10 to win 10.50

Toronto [A] / Boston Under 5  +127 5 to win 6.35

Forgot to add the Toronto A game

Pulled the trigger last night...    came out on top    NICE JOB.

You know GASMAN has a similar system, he only chases to 3 and filters out totals at 5...taking the over instead of the under...  he ended up winning Tor/Bos and Was/Phi taking the over but lost the Min/EDM game.    

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