Okay guys, while I was working on the sweep chase system (see other thread) noticed some trends for 2009 I thought we could take advantage of. Here is what I looked at and the results thus far:
I looked at all series of 3 or more games and targeted series where one team had a line of -150 or more for the first game of the series only. This would initiate a three game chase where you would bet on the favored team to win a game. Once this occurred the series would be a win.
Record for 2009 would have been: 116-3 for AL, 130-4 for NL
Total Record for 2009: 246-7
Potentially a very good profit margin is obtainable if this holds true through this season! I know what everyone is going to say, THE JUICE MAN... okay couple of things: This is only the line for the first game of the series and alot of the series were initiated in the -150-170 range, and the juice was highly variable in the games through the individual series where game 1 may be -170 but game two that team may be even or +. I am going to look at this using the -1.5 RL for any game with juice >-200 to see how many losses it would add.
The other thing that was interesting is that out of these 253 series there were 51 (18AL, 33NL) sweeps by the team favored in the first game and playing the team favored by above criteria for all three game hit around 65% (for AL, still have to run it for NL)
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