Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

2007 AL:   -1.5 RL on all plays= 133-23

                  ML plays = 151-5

Game 1 wins = 105    (105-51, 67.3%)

Game 2 wins = 34     (34-17, 66.7%)

Game 3 wins = 12     (12-5, 70.6%) 

Losses for AL 2007

Team (record for year)        Opp         Line            Date

LAA (20-1)                           KC           -260              6/27

NYY (27-2)                          @COL       -170              6/21

                                          LAA           -145             5/27

BAL (2-2)                           WAS           -172             6/14

                                         TB               -163             8/30

---ok guys I don't want to try to dismiss these losses, but I think we SHOULD NOT play interleague games.  Also, the -145 line is borderline but I tried to include these type of games in the analysis because I could see that being a play depending on where the line started.  The thing that concerns me is BAL, obviously a team of little value in that they only met criteria 4 times for the season, losing twice...  When we feel a play like this is posted we have to try to skip it if at all possible.  I would advise using extreme caution in playing these as a straight chase even though we will follow it that way and consider labby lines as the game by game plays consistently are showing good percentages.  I will get the NL for 2007 up as soon as I can and will run it for the sweep chase system also this week.  Two of our plays overlap with that system starting tomorrow.

Plays for 4/11, play at your own risk:

System record 1-0-0

Series #1 (game 1) 1:05          kc @ DET -195

Series #2 (game 1) 2:25         mil @ CHC -155

Series #3 (game 1) 3:05         was @ PHI -270, -1.5 RL -130

**Series #4 (game 1) 4:15         BOS -132*** @ minn

Series #5 (game 1) 4:15         hou @ STL -220, -1.5 RL (even)

****Series #6 (game 1) 6:35         ATL -115*** @ sd

Series #7 (game 1) 7:05         TB -143 @ bal

******Series #8 (game 1) 7:15         cin @ FLA -138****

Series #9 (game 1) 10:15       pit @ SF -160

****Proceed with caution.  This system was tested using the closing lines.  Three of these games are dropping below the appropriate range.  I would love to test this system against opening lines if someone knows where we can get those numbers for the past two or three seasons it would be very helpful and could allow us to play more games with reduced juice.  If these games go off less than -145 or so, I will not consider them system plays.

NL 2007

101-8, playing all games -190 or higher on -1.5 L = 101-9

Game 1 wins = 67         (67-42, 61.5%)

Game 2 wins = 24         (24-18, 57.1%)

Game 3 wins = 10         (10-8,  55.5%)     101-68, 59.8%

Jonny,

Sorry for the delay in response I got called in tonight.  As I was backtesting I saw that the odds were fairly variable and it was not uncommon to be playing for a win on a team that was even or an underdog.  I did not look at playing the favorite each game to get a win but it might work.  I can think of at least a couple instances were a team was heavily favored in game 1 and were then underdogs in game 2/3 and it resulted in a system loss.  The majority of the losses come with the team favored in all three.  We could test it???  I bought a database today that goes back to 2003 with opening and closing lines and scores.  I can forward it to anyone who is interested. 

Plays for 4/13, play at your own risk:

System record 5-0-0

Series #1 (game 2) 1:05          kc @ DET -123

****Series #4 (game 2 pend)        BOS  @ minn, next 4/14 

****Series #6 (game 2 pend)         ATL*** @ sd, next 4/14

****Series #8 (game 2) 7:10        cin @ FLA -119

Series #10 (game 1) 1:05           laa @ NYY -200, -105 (-1.5)

Series #11 (game 1) 4:10           ariz @ LAD -163

Series #12 (game 1) 8:40           nym @ COL -148

Game 1 wins = 5

Game 2 wins = 0

Game 3 wins = 0

****Proceed with caution.  These plays fall outside of the original system.  I need to backtest against the opening lines to determine if plays like these should be included.  They are listed here in case anyone played these series.  I did not and actually bet on Minn today.  We need to watch the COL line closely also as it may drop out of being a system play.

Okay guys want to put a summary up of what we know so far, so people can make an educated decision as to whether to follow any of these plays in a chase or any other manner.

2009 Combined Record 246-7  (3 losses from interleague play)

51 sweeps by favorite = 20.1 %

-playing any favorites >-190 on -1.5 line adds 2 losses

AL (116-3)

109-10 if play ALL games on -1.5 line reg. of line

Game 1 = 78-41, 65.5%

Game 2 = 25-16, 61%

Game 3 = 13-3, 81%

NL (130-4)

-114-20 if play ALL games on -1.5 line

Game 1 = 100-34, 74.6%

Game 2 = 23-11, 67.6%

Game 3 = 7-4, 63.6%

Combined

Game 1 = 178-75, 70.4%

Game 2 = 48-27, 64%

Game 3 = 20-7, 74.1%

2008 Combined Record 258-10 

-playing any favorites >-190 on -1.5 line adds 3 losses

AL (117-4)

108-13 if play ALL games on -1.5 line reg. of line

Game 1 = 77-44, 63.6%

Game 2 = 26-18, 59.1%

Game 3 = 14-4, 77.7%

NL (141-6)

-130-17 if play ALL games on -1.5 line

Game 1 = 98-49, 66.7%

Game 2 = 34-15, 69.4%

Game 3 = 9-6, 60%

Combined

Game 1 = 175-93, 65.3%

Game 2 = 60-33, 64.5%

Game 3 = 23-10, 69.7%

2007 Combined Record 252-13 

-playing any favorites >-190 on -1.5 line adds 2 losses

AL (151-5)

133-23 if play ALL games on -1.5 line reg. of line

Game 1 = 105-51, 67.3%

Game 2 = 34-17, 66.7%

Game 3 = 12-5, 70.6%

NL (101-8)

Game 1 = 67-42, 61.5%

Game 2 = 23-11, 57.1%

Game 3 = 10-8, 55.5%

Combined

Game 1 = 172-93, 64.9%

Game 2 = 58-35, 62.4%

Game 3 = 22-13, 62.9%

Last three seasons:

756-30 (96.1%)

Game 1 = 525-261, 66.8%

Game 2 = 166-95, 63.6%

Game 3 = 65-30, 68.4%        756-386, 66.2%