Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

That sounds like a great idea...also it sounds like the -150 is based on the opening line or the closing line? 

Sorry if i missed that part, been doing a ton of reading.

2008 data:

AL: 117-4

NL:  141-6

Combined:  258-10

Playing any favorite >-200 on -1.5 RL would add 3 losses = 255-13, a few teams had multiple losses.  Will detail 2009 losses in next post.

2009 losses:

Favored team(record for year)           Oponent         Line        Date

MIN  (9-1)                                       LAA            -154          7/31

TOR (6-2)                                       FLA              -210         6/12

                                                    @ATL            -168         5/24

St L (15-1)                                     COL               -170         6/7

PHI  (16-1)                                     TOR               -182        6/16

FLA (10-1)                                    @WAS            -170         8/6

ATL (12-1)                                      FLA                -158        4/6

---would have been a rough couple of weeks last year at end of may beginning of June...not consistent in prev years.

Think at this point, it becomes a choice that each of us has to make.

Playing the RL with any and all teams that are at the -150 closing line or worse.

If this is the course decided by the individual, then be prepared to play and extra game or lose an extra series.

2007 in the works Cinderella.  Good pickup on the interleague games.  I looked at the 2008 losses and 1 out of 6 losses for the NL were during interleague games SD vs MIN 6/24.  I have to mark the games for AL 2008 still, just ran through the season keeping a running tally in my head instead of taking the time to mark each game.

People can play this as they deem best, I don't have a large bankroll so will probably play a three line labby.  For those that want to play the -1.5RL to decrease juice, I have posted how many losses this would add for last season previously.  When I originally tested this I planned to play -1.5 line regardless of the line (i.e. even if the initially favorite was an underdog in game 2/3, I would still play -1.5), this resulted in 30 losses for last year. 

I am going to post the plays as a three game chase on the ML.  If there is very high juice I will post both and each person can play or not play in the style they would like.  I have worked very hard to crunch these numbers and will be making the plays myself.  I will feel bad enough if I lose money, but would feel horrible if others did because of this so please proceed with caution and cap these plays yourself.  If it goes against what you feel is a good play don't do it.  I am hoping between this and the sweep chase system we can win some money this season.

2008 NL numbers by game (with ML plays)

141-6

Game 1 wins = 98     (98- 49, 66.7%)

Game 2 wins = 34     (34-15, 69.4%)

Game 3 wins = 9       (9-6, 60%)             (141-70, 66.8%)

so if the bank roll was large enough there would be 9 plays tomorrow?

TB

Red Sox

Det

SF

Fla

Atl

Stl

Philly

Cubs

This is correct right?  Since every team is at -150 or worse according to lines out now at the Greek.

Rizz, that 258-10 is with absolutely no runlines, correct?

Rizz:

In case I forgot, thanks for all the hard work in this project.  It is much appreciated.

Plays for 4/11, play at your own risk:

System record 1-0-0

Series #1 (game 1) 1:05          kc @ DET -190

Series #2 (game 1) 2:25         mil @ CHC -155

Series #3 (game 1) 3:05         was @ PHI -270, -1.5 RL ??

Series #4 (game 1) 4:15         BOS @ minn +150

Series #5 (game 1) 4:15         hou @ STL -220, -1.5 RL ??

Series #6 (game 1) 6:35         ATL -155@ sd

Series #7 (game 1) 7:05         TB -155 @ bal

Series #8 (game 1) 7:15         cin @ FLA -155

Series #9 (game 1) 10:15       pit @ SF -180

?? meant odds weren't available at this time.  Watch the odds this system was backtested with the closing line, so if a line drops below -140, I would not play it. 

Does anyone know what books offer -1 RL as I would like to play these games with this line and it isn't available at my book?

If you can get a -1 RL record would be very similar with a few pushes.  If you play -1.5 for odds higher than -190 would have added 3 losses.  I have the game by game data for making all plays on the -1.5 RL regardless of the games odds.  I can calculate that and post it if you would find it of use.  I have avoided posting it because I didn't want to confuse things.

If I understand this correctly, is it possible to give results for playing RL for fav with -150 or worse in both leagues for previous years?

I am not sure how everyone is going to play the system this year, i.e. runline, moneyline, etc.  To be complete. I want to make sure everyone has as much info as I do before they make the plays.  Here are the numbers if you play EVERY game on the -1.5 RL regardless of the odds.

AL 2009 (all plays on the -1.5 runline regardless of odds)= 109-10

Game 1 wins= 66 (66-53, 55.4%)

Game 2 wins = 22 (22-31, 41%)

Game 3 wins = 21 (21-10, 67.7%)          109-94, 53.7%

NL 2009 = 114-19

Game 1 wins = 74    (74-59, 55.6%)

Game 2 wins = 29    (29-30, 49.1%)

Game 3 wins = 11    (11-19, 36.6%)        114-108, 51.4%