Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

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System running hot today

Plays for 4/14, play at your own risk:

System record 9-0-0

****Series #4 (game 2)   1:10          BOS -135  @ minn 

****Series #6 (game 2)   10:10        ATL-145 @ sd

****Series #8 (game 3)  7:10           cin@ FLA -125

Technically no system plays for today but three remnant series that opened as qualifying but dropped well below closing standard.

Game 1 wins =8

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0

****Proceed with caution.  These plays fall outside of the original system.  I need to backtest against the opening lines to determine if plays like these should be included.  They are listed here in case anyone played these series.  I did not and actually bet on Minn today.  We need to watch the COL line closely also as it may drop out of being a system play.  Wins or losses not included in system record.

Avenue,

Yes that is the basis of the system.  We are basically betting that the line makers know more than us and trying to use it against them.  Originally tested this playing all of the games on -1.5 line regardless of the odds but playing ML really dropped the number of losses.  Most series the odds fluctuated quite a bit but some had high odds in all three games.  A loss in that situation would cost us a lot of units... People can play however they want but I am using a 3 line labby system, -1.5 plays on odds > -190 and a lot of the others where I split money on money line and -1.5 where a 1 run win will essentially result in a push.

This was backtested using closing lines.  We had a few games that started in criteria but the lines fell below it.  I got a database with opening lines and am backtesting that currently.  2009 results would have been very similar, working on 2008 tonight.  Interleague games would have caused 3 of the seven losses last year and two of the losses for 2008 so I wouldn't recommend playing those games but it is up to everyone how they want to do it.  Thanks for taking a look.  BOL

One thing I wrote a note to look at, but it had slipped my mind:

2009

AL           17 road series = 1 loss,      2 interleague losses

NL           17 road series = 1 loss,      1 interleague loss

2008

AL          13 road series = 0 losses,  0 interleague losses

NL          21 road series = 1 loss,     1 interleague loss

2007

AL          25 road series = 1 loss, 2 interleague losses

NL          8 road series = 0 losses,  0 interleague losses

** would recommend not playing IL games as add little value considering added losses.  There have been a consistent number of road series plays last three years with some added risk but likely still profitable overall.  Just wanted to point this out as these plays may increase risk some.

---2008 record based on opening lines (at pinnacle) to see if they are similar to the closing lines used in initially testing this should be up by the end of the night.

Results for 4/14:

System record 9-0-0

Additional series 3-0-0

****Series #4 (game 2 wins)  BOS -135 

****Series #6 (game 2 wins) ATL-145

****Series #8 (game 3 wins)   FLA -125

Technically no system plays for today but three remnant series that opened as qualifying but dropped well below closing standard.

Game 1 wins =8

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0

I actually took advantage of ATL and FLA today.  My research in opening lines looks to be inline with closing lines and we should probably include them.  I will mark these plays but will include them from now on (see next post)

2008 Assessed by Opening Lines (from Pinnacle)

ML Record = 240-9

Playing -1.5 line for higher than -190 = 238-11

Did not see any real correlation between wins/losses and line moves.  In series that lost line moved from a range of -50 (in our favor) to +28 (in houses favor)

Record by Game:

Game 1 = 175-74,  70.3%

Game 2 = 44-30,  59.5%

Game 3 = 21-9, 70%

I Originally tested this system by playing ALL games on the -1.5 RL regardless of odds.  Wanted to make sure this was posted for those interested.

AL 2009 (all plays on the -1.5 runline regardless of odds)= 109-10

Game 1 wins= 66 (66-53, 55.4%)

Game 2 wins = 22 (22-31, 41%)

Game 3 wins = 21 (21-10, 67.7%)          109-94, 53.7%

NL 2009 = 114-19

Game 1 wins = 74    (74-59, 55.6%)

Game 2 wins = 29    (29-30, 49.1%)

Game 3 wins = 11    (11-19, 36.6%)        114-108, 51.4%

AL 2008 (all plays on the -1.5 runline regardless of odds)= 108-13

Game 1 wins= 65 (65-56, 53.7%)

Game 2 wins = 26 (26-30, 46.4%)

Game 3 wins = 17 (17-13, 56.7%)          108-99, 52.2%

NL 2009 = 130-17

Game 1 wins = 73    (73-74, 49.7%)

Game 2 wins = 38    (38-36, 51.4%)

Game 3 wins = 11    (19-17, 36.6%)        130-127, 50.6%

AL 2007 (all plays on the -1.5 runline regardless of odds)= 133-23

Game 1 wins= 76 (76-80, 48.7%)

Game 2 wins = 38 (38-42, 47.5%)

Game 3 wins = 19 (19-23, 45.2%)          133-145, 47.8%

NL 2007 = 89-20

Game 1 wins = 46    (46-63, 42.2%)

Game 2 wins = 29    (27-36, 42.9%)

Game 3 wins = 16    (16-20, 44.4%)        89-119, 42.8%

There are different ways to play it but I play it more aggressively.  You start with three line

20-20-20-20

20-20-20-20

20-20-20-20

Play the outside numbers on game 1 ( be to win 40),  If it wins cross those numbers off until you clear the line two times, then increase your plays by ten percent to start a new line 22-22-22-22.

How aggressive you are depends on the losses.  I take half of my loss and put it on line 1 and half on line 2.  So if I bet 60 to win 40.

20-20-20-20-30

20-20-20-20-30

So my game 2 bet would be to win 50.  If it wins I cross out the 30 and 20.  If you want to be very aggressive with it, instead of adding a new number at the end of the chain you can just add the number to the end.

20-20-20-50

20-20-20-50

20-20-20-20

If you play it this way you would only add a new number if a series lost.  Just continuing with above if game 2 and 3 lost

20-20-20-50

20-20-20-85

20-20-20-55             after game 2, so bet 75 on game 3, if loses

20-20-20-50-37.5

20-20-20-85

20-20-20-55

A couple of losses this way can have you making very aggressive bets but they are spread out between the three games.  I run an nba qtr system that hits about 96-97% and I was running an aggressive 4 line labby and in one night I had one game go the 4th qtr for my win and another series lost.  Staying steady and playing my aggressive lines I was able to recoup my losses and be a little ahead by the end of the next night (was playing 6 series a night).  I have never run this with the juice as heavy as some of these games so I am not sure if I am going to play the aggressive or standard.  I will probably play aggressive but as I said in previous posts I am playing a very small amounts to start.

Milkman,

It will be a little bit hard to keep track of the units because they will very dependent on how you play it.  I can keep track of it as if you played it straight up to win one unit.  The juice will only kill us when we lose if playing it straight up.  Overall record would be 9-1, +9U or 12-5, +12U if you played the three additional series.  I didn't keep track of the additional three series but if you were playing them on a 3 line labby you would have some remnant on line 1, depending you aggressively you were playing it.  If a lot of people are playing the labby lines we can try to include those at the end of the day also.