Opening Game Favorite Chase 246-7 for 2009

tough to say jake.... depends on your bankroll and what percentage of it you have in your lines.  I would run a worst case scenario where you had 3 teams lose all 3 games and make sure you still had adequate funds to make another round of plays for 3 or 4 teams.... don't know that is all that helpful....

Plays for 5/8:

System record 54-3-1

Additional series 3-0-0

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff          

*Series #59 (G2,3) 1:10, 8:10       bal @ MIN  

Series #60 (G3/4) 7:05              tor @ CWS          

OPTIONAL SERIES (Non System)   5-0

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins =38

Game 2 wins = 11

Game 3 wins = 5

*Losses = 3 , -42.6U

*units lost reflects playing all games on the ML martingale for 3 games, not recommended*

Always good to clear the board before the last day of the series! Lets get this thing back on track.

Yes it is 

is it fair to say that there has been a total of 57 series bet to this point?

Game 1 wins =66%  correct?

Game 2 win = 57.8% correct?

Game 3 wins = 62.5% correct

now this is playing the system as original format, no rl to reduce juice and playing big favs. 

NM,

I am guessing +30U or so but could be more if I stayed true to the aggressive labby.  I have been playing about 4 different systems and it is hard to keep straight.  I am going to go back through all the plays tonight and redo everything using aggressive 3 line labby to see where we are at.

Jake,

those numbers are correct.

Plays for 5/10:

System record 54-3-1

Additional series 3-0-0

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff          

*Series #61 (G1) 7:10               tor @ BOS -180  

Series #62 (G1) 7:05                was @ NYM  -150

Series #63 (G1) 8:05                fla @ CHC -151        

OPTIONAL SERIES (Non System)   5-0

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins =38

Game 2 wins = 11

Game 3 wins = 5

*Losses = 3 , -42.6U

*units lost reflects playing all games on the ML martingale for 3 games, not recommended*

see page 11.  In backtesting the system, for whatever reason a runline of 9 or higher yielded a record of 151-2 last year.

The pick is always the capitalized team.  I generally play ML up to 170, then -1 to about 190 or so, then RL anything higher.  This adds some risk, and you may push the series.  Generally the RL for every game in a series adds 2 or 3 losses per year.

The 50.6U does not include increasing the numbers in your lines after crossing them off either.  I think everyone understands the aggressive labby by now due to previous posts.  basically what I do is cross off all my wins for the day, then add half of the total lost that day (not the sum of the day but the amount I lost that day) and add half to the last number in my line and drop half to the next line.  For example say we take today's series and start with the following lines

5-5-5-5  play all games tonight to win 10

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

say BOS and CHC win, NYM lose so we won 10+10, lost 15, we cross off 4 of our 5's and bring in a new set of 5's.  Now add half of 15 lost on line 1 and half on line 2.  New lines now

5-5-5-12.5

5-5-5-12.5

5-5-5-5

so for the game 2's I would play to win 17.5, when the next round of game 1's start I would also play these to win 17.50.  The only time I add a number at the end of my lines is if it gets over 5U and/or a series loses.

what are you talking about not using the system?  If you ran aggressive labby on all the plays posted in this thread you would be up 50.6U.  Whether I stuck to it and played it that way is irrelevant.  If you were playing straight martingale you would have 57U in the + and 42.6 in the negative = +14.4

Posted this earlier, realized it didn't stick or I didn't hit submit when I looked back to put it in my spreadsheet.

Teamrankings,        Series Prices

tor (2, 105.0) @ BOS (13, 100.7) = -11, +4.3         SP = -220

was (11, 100.6) @ NYM (7, 101.9) = +4, +1.3       SP = ???

fla (12, 100.4)    @ chc (23, 98.4) -11, -2.0            SP = -150

Guys, just want to stress caution with the cubs.  They have cost us a loss already.  Surprised they are a heavy favorite again.  Of the filters we were tossing around they are -11 in the rankings differential and in the bottom 1/3rd of teams at home.  Not going to play the series mostly because I am still pissed at them and just think it is a higher risk.  This is the first season doing this so I am going to post the plays so we can have as much info as possible to develop more effective filters.  I am keeping track of everything in a spreadsheet so we can have as much info as possible

DJ- I understand what you are saying.  I was doubtful myself at first, as progressive/chase systems can be big time trouble...no matter what the game.  That being said- I think limiting your chase to a 3-game series limits your exposure much more than say....betting 50 bucks a spin on Black Roulette because red has come up 10 times in a row.  

I've spent the better part of the last 24 hours (nearly consecutive) on this post.  24 hours ago I was doubtful, and was looking to find a hole in the system.  But after crunching the numbers myself, and fact-checking Rizz (without his knowledge), the system seems to be positive.  There will be sub-par nights like tonight, where you drop 2 of 3 and your forced to double-back your efforts tomorrow....but it seems that very rarely a better team actually gets swept (especially at home).  [IE- if you could get odds on both the cubs and mets losing their next 2 games...so that those 2 teams going oh-and-6 over the series....how long do you think those odds would be?]  

Lastly- while you might think that Rizz has 'cooked the books' to make the numbers look good...I've actually found some games/series that were winners that he DID NOT include.  A couple of series that according to my book, were going into Game One favored to the tune of -150 or greater....won Game One....(but that he HAS NOT included in his numbers). 

If he wanted to make something look good- he'd be doing whatever he could to inflate a 'system'.

Good work Rizz.

RIZZ:  you may want to look at the following series that fit your system, but i don't believe were included in your stats or previous posts:   CHW on 4/23.  Started a series against the Mariners at -152 (according to covers.com closing line...which is good enough resource for me)...and they won Game 1 of the series.

Also the Cubs on 4/26.  THey kicked off a series vs. Wash at -149 on the first game.  (I think it opened at -160....you missed it on an initial post...someone else told you to wake up...you acknowledged them....but then it was never shown in any stats, from what i can tell.)  They won Game One that night.    

If I'm you...I'm counting these two as Series Wins, with the 'W' coming in Game One.