Fla/Tex is not a play because we only play teams that meet the o/u filter for IL games. COL/MIN is a play.
The LAA suck again apparently. The brewers are kicking the crap out of them like they did to pit earlier this year when I was on them. One problem, I screwed up. When I tested for the IL plays with the filter, it should have been based on closing lines above -150, which LAA dropped well below. Now I feel like a dumbass because people have lost money. Maybe they will turn it around tonight or tomorrow. Of course, this will all be included in the lines and record. If the series loses we should be able to pick it back up with our labby lines.
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Guys,
Fla/Tex is not a play because we only play teams that meet the o/u filter for IL games. COL/MIN is a play.
The LAA suck again apparently. The brewers are kicking the crap out of them like they did to pit earlier this year when I was on them. One problem, I screwed up. When I tested for the IL plays with the filter, it should have been based on closing lines above -150, which LAA dropped well below. Now I feel like a dumbass because people have lost money. Maybe they will turn it around tonight or tomorrow. Of course, this will all be included in the lines and record. If the series loses we should be able to pick it back up with our labby lines.
Rizz excellent work man! Hey curious have you kept track of the system record betting runlines instead of moneylines?
This is how I originally intended to play this system but in backetesting the ML had a significantly better record. This is true to a more significant extent this year. I see 9 more losses by playing all the series we have listed (including 2 game series) by playing EVERY game on the RL.
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Quote Originally Posted by stickbit:
Rizz excellent work man! Hey curious have you kept track of the system record betting runlines instead of moneylines?
This is how I originally intended to play this system but in backetesting the ML had a significantly better record. This is true to a more significant extent this year. I see 9 more losses by playing all the series we have listed (including 2 game series) by playing EVERY game on the RL.
Please be careful with playing teams that do not pass the o/u filter for interleague. There would have been 3 losses last year without the filter. That being said, I hope FLA gets it done tonight for anyone chasing them
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Quote Originally Posted by SKiLLsSoLoN:
Well I got Fla Bet-C tommorrow
Guys,
Please be careful with playing teams that do not pass the o/u filter for interleague. There would have been 3 losses last year without the filter. That being said, I hope FLA gets it done tonight for anyone chasing them
The numbers in parantheses are numbers I am going to start tracking. It is the ratio of home team home wins + away teams away losses/ home losses+ away team road wins
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Other IL Games (Non system do not pass filter)
laa @ CHC -147 ?? (34/36)
cws @ WAS -170 7.5 (34/27)
oak @ STL -240 8 (43/23)
bal @ SD -150 7 (48/22)
cin @ SEA -143 6.5 (28/31)
The numbers in parantheses are numbers I am going to start tracking. It is the ratio of home team home wins + away teams away losses/ home losses+ away team road wins
This is how I originally intended to play this system but in backetesting the ML had a significantly better record. This is true to a more significant extent this year. I see 9 more losses by playing all the series we have listed (including 2 game series) by playing EVERY game on the RL.
What about if you ended the series chase if you were taking the RL and lose the FIRST game by the 1/2 run? Example: You have STL -1.5 and they beat Mil 8-7...series is over. I wonder if that would help?
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Quote Originally Posted by therizz:
This is how I originally intended to play this system but in backetesting the ML had a significantly better record. This is true to a more significant extent this year. I see 9 more losses by playing all the series we have listed (including 2 game series) by playing EVERY game on the RL.
What about if you ended the series chase if you were taking the RL and lose the FIRST game by the 1/2 run? Example: You have STL -1.5 and they beat Mil 8-7...series is over. I wonder if that would help?
The numbers in parantheses are numbers I am going to start tracking. It is the ratio of home team home wins + away teams away losses/ home losses+ away team road wins
Rizz - I do something similar to find the strength of the plays. I take the team that is a potential play and find their winning % in that spot. Then I take the team I plan to fade and find their winning %. I subtract the % of the team to fade from the potential play and that gives me kind of a power rating number. Example:
Detroit home 23-10 = 69% Ariz visitor 9 - 25 = 26% 69 - 26 = 43
Based on that formula today I am on:
Det = 43 NYY = 28 SD = 38 Stl = 30 Atl = 31
Stayed off of TB = 21 Col = 14 Wash = 10
I haven't backtested, just a filter I look at. Keep up the good work. I have been tailing you from the start.
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Quote Originally Posted by therizz:
Other IL Games (Non system do not pass filter)
laa @ CHC -147 ?? (34/36)
cws @ WAS -170 7.5 (34/27)
oak @ STL -240 8 (43/23)
bal @ SD -150 7 (48/22)
cin @ SEA -143 6.5 (28/31)
The numbers in parantheses are numbers I am going to start tracking. It is the ratio of home team home wins + away teams away losses/ home losses+ away team road wins
Rizz - I do something similar to find the strength of the plays. I take the team that is a potential play and find their winning % in that spot. Then I take the team I plan to fade and find their winning %. I subtract the % of the team to fade from the potential play and that gives me kind of a power rating number. Example:
Detroit home 23-10 = 69% Ariz visitor 9 - 25 = 26% 69 - 26 = 43
Based on that formula today I am on:
Det = 43 NYY = 28 SD = 38 Stl = 30 Atl = 31
Stayed off of TB = 21 Col = 14 Wash = 10
I haven't backtested, just a filter I look at. Keep up the good work. I have been tailing you from the start.
Rizz - I do something similar to find the strength of the plays. I take the team that is a potential play and find their winning % in that spot. Then I take the team I plan to fade and find their winning %. I subtract the % of the team to fade from the potential play and that gives me kind of a power rating number. Example:
Detroit home 23-10 = 69% Ariz visitor 9 - 25 = 26% 69 - 26 = 43
Based on that formula today I am on:
Det = 43 NYY = 28 SD = 38 Stl = 30 Atl = 31
Stayed off of TB = 21 Col = 14 Wash = 10
I haven't backtested, just a filter I look at. Keep up the good work. I have been tailing you from the start.
Thanks trakker, I think it is a similar way of approaching it. Really would like to have tracked this over the entire season as it may be a good way to pick good series to play with low odds as opposed to what we are doing now. What I really like about this system is the high winning percentages at the different levels that allow us to pick up our labby losses over time. Good luck on your plays tonight.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAKKER:
Rizz - I do something similar to find the strength of the plays. I take the team that is a potential play and find their winning % in that spot. Then I take the team I plan to fade and find their winning %. I subtract the % of the team to fade from the potential play and that gives me kind of a power rating number. Example:
Detroit home 23-10 = 69% Ariz visitor 9 - 25 = 26% 69 - 26 = 43
Based on that formula today I am on:
Det = 43 NYY = 28 SD = 38 Stl = 30 Atl = 31
Stayed off of TB = 21 Col = 14 Wash = 10
I haven't backtested, just a filter I look at. Keep up the good work. I have been tailing you from the start.
Thanks trakker, I think it is a similar way of approaching it. Really would like to have tracked this over the entire season as it may be a good way to pick good series to play with low odds as opposed to what we are doing now. What I really like about this system is the high winning percentages at the different levels that allow us to pick up our labby losses over time. Good luck on your plays tonight.
What about if you ended the series chase if you were taking the RL and lose the FIRST game by the 1/2 run? Example: You have STL -1.5 and they beat Mil 8-7...series is over. I wonder if that would help?
could be, but this is not something I have looked at directly. May want to keep track of it as we go??
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Quote Originally Posted by stickbit:
What about if you ended the series chase if you were taking the RL and lose the FIRST game by the 1/2 run? Example: You have STL -1.5 and they beat Mil 8-7...series is over. I wonder if that would help?
could be, but this is not something I have looked at directly. May want to keep track of it as we go??
For the interleague games we only play teams closing -150 or higher with an over/under for game 1 set at 9 or higher. There are a few things I am tracking to try to develop more filters for next year. Best advice I would give is to stick to the labby lines and not martingale for money management. For those interested in playing fewer games, I would recommend just playing on HOME teams that pass the o/u filter. Good luck to everyone tonight.
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Quote Originally Posted by longstah:
RIZZ, may i ask how do you filter those play?
For the interleague games we only play teams closing -150 or higher with an over/under for game 1 set at 9 or higher. There are a few things I am tracking to try to develop more filters for next year. Best advice I would give is to stick to the labby lines and not martingale for money management. For those interested in playing fewer games, I would recommend just playing on HOME teams that pass the o/u filter. Good luck to everyone tonight.
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