I didn't look into it to deep and to be honest I only came up with that
because I was bored, but what I am looking for is something like a „formula“
for outcomes of baseball game in which at least one team lost exactly the last
two games straight. Not 3 or 4 games straight, only 2 games straight. In every
season at least the bad team wins about one out of three and the good teams
lose about one out of three. This was my base.
I only covered the stats for the Giants regular seasons from 2011 to 2013,
each after the first 15 games. Reason was that I wanted to have at least three
starts for every starter so that their ERA is more (or less) safer than after
one or two games. I don’t want to bore you with a ton of numbers. Here are my
implications in a roundup.
Assuming that the statistics from the last 3 seasons would be valid seasons
we could say:
- in general the Giants win more games after losing 2 than they lose after
losing 2 (33-25)
- this is especially true when the game after losing 2 is on the road
(20-11) and not so much when the next game is a home game (13-14)
- the Giants are good on the road after 2 losses in a row no matter if the
last game before was a road game (17-10) or at home (3-1)
- the Giants did worse after 2 losses when the next game was at home no
matter if the game before was a home game (11-11) or a road game (2-3)
- the Giants did well after losing 2 when their starters ERA was much
better than their opponents ERA (10-6) and when it was more or less similar
(17-12)
- the Giants did bad after losing 2 when their starters ERA was much worse
than their opponents ERA (6-7)
- the difference between the Giants win pct and the opponents win pct seems
not to matter (13-10/13-10/7-5), which is especially interesting because of the
bad run of the Giants in 2013
Conclusion:
- bet on the Giants when they lost exactly 2 in a row and they play away,
especially when their starters ERA is not worse than 1.00 than the opponents
starters ERA
- stay away from the Giants when they lost 2 in a row and they play at
home, no matter what
I looked into the ML odds on the Giants when they played on the road and
had lost exactly 2 in a row and the opponents starters ERA was better 1.00 at
the most from 2011 to 213. Assuming we would have bet 1 unit everytime on the
Giants in every match that falls into this category:
- we would have found 31 bets (2011: 11, 2012: 8, 2013: 12) in which the
Giants would have been favorites in 9 games (3 times in each season) and
underdog in 22 games (2011: 8, 2012: 5, 2013: 9)
- we would have won 20 bets (2011: 7, 2012: 7, 2013: 6) and lost 11 (2011:
4, 2012: 1, 2013: 6)
- we would have made a profit of +8.36 units (2011: +3.32, 2012: +4.87,
2013: +0.17)
We would have even made a small profit in 2013 when the Giants finished
with a losing record.
Of course there is a lack for certain stats (home/road record, offense) of the Giants and their opponents and the sample size is too smal. But maybe there is a chance to find similar patterns for other teams – preferably good teams - as well. This could bring us some nice profits. What do you think?
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