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ppg system

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Captain
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Posted: #1
This system encompasses the averaging of the points with a blending of offensive and defensive points. This is pure number crunching that takes into account overall, away/home and L3 games. I like that this system actually weighs the away/home and L3 game #'s more so than the overall #. I don't start using this system until most of the league has got at least a couple of games home and away to get a good data set. I should have started this 2 weeks ago. This system also takes into account strength of opp as provided by statfox. All stats rounded.

Here's what i got for week 9. I'll use ECU/MEM game to illustrate what #'s I'm using and format. Basic formula takes the offensive #'s PLUS the defensive #'s of the opponent for the same categories. I add them all and divide by 6. I do the same for the other team and I account for the avg power rating of opponents at the end. Sorry for how it looks.

overall O + away/home O + L3 O + overall opp D + opp a/h + opp D L3
ecu 25+20+30+29+27+29 = 160/6 = 26.6 = 27
mem 21+27+22+23+28+19 = 140/6 = 23.3 + 3 = 26 (opp power rating adjustment) ecu = 26, mem = 29 which means i'll give 3 to memphis for playing better opponents.

So by my #'s, I have ecu winning by one. the spread is ecu by 4 = no play. Only a 3 point difference, not enough for a play. I'm looking for differentials of 7 or more.





 
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Posted: #2
unc 18
vt 25 + 15 (power rating adjustment) = 40. Actual spread is -16.5 = PLAY ON VT (diff of 23.5)

Also like that they're off a bye and had extra time to prepare after losing to GT the week before.

wva 26
sfl 26 - 4 (power rating adj) = 22. Actual line is exactly sfl +4 = NO PLAY

rutgers 25
uconn 30 Actual line is Uconn by 8 = no play

NCST 28
FSU 44 Actual line is FSU by 8 = PLAY ON FSU

Cin 33
Cuse 22 Actual line is Cinci by 15 = no play

NMST 13
OSU 43 Actual line is OSU by 38.5 = PLAY ON NM ST

Purdue 26
Wisc 23 Actual line is Wisconsin by 7 = PLAY ON PURDUE

OH 26
BSU 17 Actual line OH by 8 = no play

i'll work on the rest of the card this week. but i wanted to track this separately from my plays. I may not play all plays, since injuries are not accurately accounted for.


 
 
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Posted: #3

The rest of the early games;


UL LAF 29

FL INT 38             -3.5/-9 = NO PLAY

 

IND 21           

IOWA 31             -17.5/-10 = PLAY ON INDIANA +17.5+

 

AKR 22

N.ILL 29            -10/-7 = NO PLAY

 

MISS 28

AUB 30            +3.5/-1 = NO PLAY

 

NEB 24          

BAY 18            +13/+6 = PLAY ON BAYLOR +13+

 

S.MISS 25

HOU 35            -6.5/-10 = NO PLAY

 

MIZZU 23

COL 23            +4/+6 = NO PLAY

 

SMU 25

TUL 32            -17/-7 = PLAY ON SMU +17+

 

WMICH 25

KSU 27            -2.5/-2 = NO PLAY

thoughts, leans are welcomed with any of these selections. I'm noticing line movements already from my first post with VT going to -17 at several spots and Purdue down to +6.5 most spots. NM St up to +39.5 and FSU down to -7.5. FYI - I'll be pounding NM St at 40+


 
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Posted: #4
 I will be doing the no.'s on a  system, on Tuesday..........I'll post sometime Tues. about the picks after I'm done.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Good stuff man..........

If I may ask - to have an idea of the system's strength are you able to provide any prior results?

Thanks 
 
Captain
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Posted: #6
montana - i tinkered with this last year in both football and coll basketball. no records but it did better than 50% in both. i remembered thinking it was good enough to keep track.

the 3:00 to 6:00 games should be up sometime tomorrow. In the meantime, I'm locked in with SMU +17 and FSU -7. Christian Ponder should have a field day vs that secondary of the wolfpack. Giving 2 TD's+ to a team that can pass like SMU could be trouble. Mustangs are 24th passing offense, that's including 15 total points in last week's game at houston. QB Mitchell is questionable with a shoulder. Kyle Pardon in relief put up 141 yds, 1 td and 0 pics, so not much of a drop off there.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
..................Sergio
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
I posted what is in essence the same formula for the NFL on 10/23 in the thread entitled NFL Def vs. Off as predictor of score.  I have posted all but 2 of this weeks upcoming NFL games.  I will post the final two games later this evening--if anyone is interested.
 
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Posted: #9

 picks look

 
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Posted: #10
 
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Posted: #11
Jeff - I think this works better for college than for pro's. College teams tend to be streakier and have a better home field advantages than pro teams. i don't even run this system for nfl since i value situations and matchups higher than recent play & home/away performance. But yea, looks a lot like what i'm doing here other than the power rating adjustment

in the interest of time, i'll only post games with differentials greater than 6 points.

here are the 3:00 to 6:00 games;

sj st 15
boise 42            -27/-35 = PLAY ON SJST +35+

uga  28
fl 28                  pk/-15 = PLAY ON UGA +15+

mich 28
ill 27                 +1/+7.5 = PLAY ON ILL +7.5+

tem 23
navy 37             -14/-6.5 = PLAY ON NAVY -6.5 OR LESS

ucla 28            
ore 29              -1/-10 = PLAY ON UCLA +10+

ut st 23
fresno 34          -11/-17 = PLAY ON UT ST +17+

i'll have the night games posted later tonight or tomorrow. I already got Navy -6.5. It's possible people are buying a suddenly hot Temple team. Navy's power rating of opponents makes up the difference here...

 
Captain
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Posted: #12
the rest of the games with numbers;

tul 15+12+11+14+9+12 = 12
lsu 24+22+18+37+30+39 = 28 + 9 = 37 -25/-35 = PLAY ON TULANE +35+

mist 27+28+20+25+25+26 = 25
minn 21+26+14+21+28+14 = 21 + 7 =28  -3/+3.5 = PLAY ON MIN +3.5+

wyo 19+10+22+18+16+16 = 17
ut 28+29+27+24+21+17 = 24 + 3 =27 -10/-17 = PLAY ON WYO +17+

usc 31+24+35+17+17+12 = 23
ore 34+41+40+15+15+22 = 28 + 2 = 30 -7/+3.5 = PLAY ON ORE +3.5+
 
Captain
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Posted: #13
two more i missed;

e mich 21
ark 47         -26/-38 = PLAY ON E MICH +38+

wash st 20
nd 35          -15/-28 = PLAY ON WASH ST +28+
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
notes, thoughts, tweaks and official selections:
16 dogs, 3 faves Still contemplating VT. I may pull the trigger on that one. Afterall, the Hokies have not dropped the cash in back-to-back games since last November. Not sure about UGA's ability to hang with FL. The Gators are more banged-up coming into this one.

A good tweak to this system would be to eliminate teams that have a less ats wins than their opponent. With this simple tweak, I've eliminated the bad teams that aren't covering spreads, which leaves me with;

VT-16.5
Purdue+7
Indiana+17.5
Wyo17+
Ore+3.5
Utah St+17.5
Navy-6.5

I like this list. I'm already in play with VT, Purdue x2, Oregon and Navy. I'll hold off on the remaining heavy dogs on the chance of getting a better # later.

That's all folks. 7 official plays. I'll see how this tweak works against the original list.
 
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Posted: #15

VT-16.5
Purdue+7
Indiana+17.5
Wyo17+
Ore+3.5
Utah St+17.5
Navy-6.5

unfiltered plays went 9-10. an additional tweak includes playing home teams if they initially qualifed as a play on team. that would add ill, minn and baylor. adding these would bring us to 6-4 with the 2 separate tweaks.


 
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Posted: #16
bg 24+24+26+25+23+17=23
buf 23+25+31+28+24+25=26 -6 (power rating adj)= 20  -3.5/+3 = PLAY ON BG +3.5 or more. this would not qualify after the first ats tweak and most likely will be a pass for me as this is also an away team.
 
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Posted: #17

Good work keep it going bro. 

 
Captain
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Posted: #18
the rest of the weekday and early Saturday games

em 18
n ill 26 = -8/-21 = PLAY ON E MICH +21+

mia oh 17
temple 20 = -3/-13  = PLAY ON MIA OH +13+

bsu 31
la tech 20 = +11/+21 = PLAY ON LA TECH +21+ (ats = or better than opp tweak)

cuse 16
pit 27 = -11/-20.5 = PLAY ON CUSE +20.5+

lou 20
wvu 24 = -4/-19.5 = PLAY ON LOUISVILLE +19.5+ (ats)

wisc 24
ind 20 = +4/+11.5 = PLAY ON INDIANA +11.5 (home and ats)

ka 23
k st 37 = -14/+2.5 = PLAY ON K STATE +2.5 (home and ats)

pur 22
mich 39 = -17/-4 = PLAY ON MICHIGAN -4 (home and ats)

tx a&m 30
col 32 = -2/+5 = PLAY ON COL +5 (home and ats)

bay 20.5
mizzu 25 = -4.5/-16 = PLAY ON BAYLOR +16+ (ats)

LATE LINES;

NAVY 26
ND 32 = -6/-11.5 = PLAY ON NAVY +13+ (ats)

UCF 20
TX 44 = -24/-36 = PLAY ON UCF +36+ (ats)

UCONN 20
CINCY 29 = -9/-17 = PLAY ON UCONN +17+ (home)

This system seems to favor playing against overpriced faves. 9 dogs, 1 fave so far not so sure if i can back indiana after that debacle they went threw last saturday where they were leading going into the 4th and they lose the game and the 17.5 cover in the process. i don't think they come back strong after that one. i'm glad i didn't see that game, cuz i probably would have lost it

As with all heavy dogs, hold your plays till later in the week for the best possible #. If the play does not either have a home field or an ats edge, i would not play it. in fact, i would look to play against these teams since we might not know something about the game. These include playing against E Mich, Miami -Oh and the Cuse. Remember Ohio State this past Saturday? Oh yea, they covered that 45 point spread by 1
 
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Posted: #19

correction = uconn holds an ats edge, not at home. I don't think they follow through this week. i'm inclined to pass or play against.

3:00 to 6:00 games

rice 22

smu 26  -4/-17.5 PLAY ON RICE +17.5

 

wash st 19

az 29  -10/-31  PLAY ON WASH  ST +31

 

WASH 25

UCLA 23.5  +1.5/-4.5  PLAY ON WASH +4.5+

 

WF 19

GT 26  -7/-15  PLAY ON WF +15+

 

OSU 20

PSU 17  +3/-4  PLAY ON OSU +4+

 

ARMY 14

AF 25  -11/-17  PLAY ON ARMY +17+

 

TCU 30

SDST 14  +16/+24.5  PLAY ON SD ST +24.5+

 

FL INT 23

MTSU 29  -6/-13  PLAY ON FL INT +13+

 

TROY 38

WKY 23  +15/+24  PLAY ON WKY +24+

 

the widest spread i found was with wash st/az. i see there are injuries on the cougars side, but there must be something else i'm missing. this line looks fishy. 

 
Captain
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Posted: #20
late games

nm 16
ut 31  -15/-27 = PLAY ON NM +27+ (ats)

ut st 31
haw 23 +8/+2 = PLAY UT ST -2 (ats)

nev 31.5
sj st 32 -0.5/+14 = PLAY ON SJ ST +14

the bottom of the schedule really sucks. sj st can't do much of anything, much less stop a good running team like nevada. they have one less ats win than nevada, so i think i'll pass on that one. Hawaii at home is tough. other teams tend to make the trip to the big island as a vacation.


 
Captain
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Posted: #21

13-4 tweaked plays w/sj st pending

4-4 with the remaining plays. i did go against the system for a couple of these games, but advantage overall this week.

eems like i got a goodtw eak's the trick

 
Captain
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Posted: #22

i will no longer

 

oh 25

buf 24  +1/-2.5  no play

 

tol 21

c mich 31  -10/-16 = no play. though the value is with toledo, they are away and has a worse ats record.

 

 

 
Captain
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Posted: #23

what i was about to write before i got distracted was that i will no longer post plays that do not meet one of the tweaks, that is 1) either at home or, 2) worse ats.

** = home and ats advantages.

here are the rest of the weekday and early saturday games

tem 26
akr 27 = -1/+4 = PLAY ON AKR +5+

ind 19
psu 29.5 = -10.5/-22 = PLAY ON IND +22+ (3rd week in a row backing ind. psu upset at home, out of contention for conf title)

tex 32
**bay 16 = +16/+25 = PLAY ON BAYLOR +25+

tn 21
mis 16 = +5/-3 = PLAY ON TN +3+

wm 29.5
**em 29.5 = pk/+10 = PLAY ON E.MICH +10+

 

 
Captain
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Posted: #24
midday games

iowa 16
osu 25.5 = -9/-17 = PLAY ON OSU -17 (faded system play)

ucla 29
wa st +19.5  = +9.5/+18 = PLAY ON WA ST +18+

stan 28
usc 33.5 = -5.5/-11 = PLAY ON STAN +12+

fl 26
sc 16 = +10/+15 = PLAY ON SC +16+

wash 23
ore st 24 = -1/-11 = play on WASH + 11+




 
 
Captain
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Posted: #25
WASH ST and SC are both home and w/ats adv

late games

nd 22
pitt 22 = pk/-7  = PLAY ON PITT -7 (rev)

unlv 18
af -26 = -8/-17  = PLAY ON AF -17 (rev)

al 26
ole miss 19 = +7/+12.5 = PLAY ON OLE MISS +13+

ut 19
tcu 29 = -10/-17 = PLAY ON TCU -17 (rev)

nm st 23
haw 32 = -9/-20 = PLAY ON HAW -20 (rev)

as a reminder, rev/faded system plays are those identified as teams that have are getting the added point value, but fail to qualify either tweak, therefore we fade these and give the benefit of the doubt to the home team with equal or better ats than their opponent.

there you have it. whether u play them all, some or none, BOL
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