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ppg system

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Prospect
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Posted: #51
thanks again, sergio could you please explain and or give an example of the power rating math...what to and who to add and or subtract from what team???  thanks in advanced...
 
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Posted: #52
for Friday

Id State 59
USC 67

avg power rating of opp played is 70 for Id St and 66 for USC. Since Id St has had the stronger schedule to date by 4, I'm deducting 4 from usc = 63. So my line says usc -4, Vegas says -11.5 = play on Id State with a 7.5 difference. no ats (2wins each) or home court advantage, so this one play barely qualifies.

Fade W. Ky (on the road with a worse ats record)
 
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Posted: #53
also gonna post the widest total differences. For Friday i have

MDTSU/TENN 141/vegas has 147.5 (6.5 difference) = play UNDER 147.5.
 
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Posted: #54
2-0

0-1 fade play


SAT


Here are the widest spreads w/ats or home edge. the ats edge i'm using is either more ats wins than opponent or equal to opponent.

Loy Mary 72
ND 79 = -7/-20.5 = PLAY LOY MARYMOUNT

byu 72
fresno 58 = +14/+6 = PLAY ON BYU -6

west car 67
lou 74 = -7/-13.5 = PLAY ON W.CAR +13.5

mem 70
ark-l 63 = +7/+14.5 = PLAY ON ARK LR +14.5

ms st 72
ucla 59 = +13/+5.5 = PLAY ON MS ST -5.5


will check on the best total plays manana...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #55
Nice work! 4-0 today so far. I took Loy Mar and Ark LR. Keep up the good work and thanks!
 
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Posted: #56
thx NCTTC nice rack she looks like jessica biel

4-1 yesterday, with fresno covering by a bucket.

no totals or fades yesterday, just never got around to it. spreads of 6 or greater went 4-2 for totals. best fade play was a push with gonzaga.

SUNDAY SYSTEM PLAYS

det 66.5
mich 68 = -1.5/-13 = PLAY DET +13

Nia 69
ill st 66 = +3/-6 = PLAY NIAGARA +6

Total play

RI/BC 142.5/150.5 = PLAY UNDER 150.5

Best Fade

Fordham
 
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Posted: #57
one more fade play

nm st 65
utep 72 = -7/-16.5 = PLAY AGAINST NM ST (on the road w/less ats wins)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #58
Another good day, 3-0 not counting your fade plays. Not a big fan of fading picks, unless you chase. Do you handicap every college game? If so, kudus to you. That takes time. Looking forward to mondays picks!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #59
Requested you as a friend
 
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Posted: #60
fade plays emerged when i noticed in cfb all the system plays were spitting out mostly heavy underdogs. The fade plays are a justification to go the other direction from the system. I'll limit them to one a day. Yes crunching numbers for saturdays and wednesdays are a grind. but it's worth it...

MONDAY

only 3 games on the card. i do have houston -8/-13.5, so troy would be worth a play at +13.5+
 
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Posted: #61
sunday wrap up

2-0 sides
1-0 total
0-2 fades
 
Prospect
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Posted: #62
I saw your pick too late to bet.   Good luck
 
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Posted: #63

Monday Recap

 

1-0

 

Strange card today as I found some underdogs that are all on the road and with less ats success than their opponents.

 

Tweaking the treaks.


Since it seems like I should be making a better argument for these plays, I'm loosening up the standard to include qualifying teams that either have, 1) overall winning ats records or SU records or, 2) have winning ats records in either L5 overall or Road/Home category whatever the situation may be. I'll explain the qualifier in (parentheses)

 

TUESDAY

 

Sides

 

N Ill 59

Min 75 = -16/-26 = PLAY N ILL +26 (2-1 Road ATS, 3-2 L5)

 

La Laf 67

S Miss 68.5 = -1.5/-8.5 = PLAY LA LAFAYETTE +8.5 (1-0 Road ATS)

 

Port St 74

St Mary’s 83 = -9/-15 = PLAY PORTLAND ST (5-4 overall)

 

Totals

 

Murray St 73

La Tech 73.5 = 146.5/139 = PLAY ON UNDER 139**

 

I usually don’t calculate the adjusted games, those include games where there is a difference greater that 3 in “power rating of opponents played” between the two teams. I skip these teams mainly because I’m not sure how to calculate the power rating on a total, since I can adjust the total higher or lower. I just happen to run this one. Being that as it may, the range of play would be 150.5-142.5.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #64
Going with your first 3 picks, leaving the total alone.
 
Captain
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Posted: #65

CORRECTION


Murray St 73

La Tech 73.5 = 146.5/139 = PLAY OVER 139**

 
Prospect
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Posted: #66
Ouch!
 
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Posted: #67

tuesday recap

0-3 sides

1-0 total

 

yup, trying to force these projections into plays did backfire. With larger cards, these would not have been plays. I'll think stick to playing teams that don't have losing ats records, unless their home/road record AND L5 record tell me otherwise...

 

WEDNESDAY

 

best plays

Clemson 73.5

ECU 69 = +4.5/+14 = 9.5 pts PLAY ON ECU +14 (at home, 4-2 ats, 4-0 L5)

WF 73

UNC-W 71 = +2/+8 = 6pts PLAY ON UNC-W +8 (at home, 4-3 ats, 2-1 ats L5)

other plays

LA Monroe 66

N Col 68.5 = -2.5/-11 = 8.5 pts PLAY ON LA Monroe +11 (3-3 ats)

Loy Ill 66.5

Bradley 72 = -5.5/-12 = 6.5 pts PLAY LOY ILL +6.5 (3-3 ats)

Best Fade

N Az 66

NM 81 = -15/-22 = 7pts = PLAY AGAINST N AZ (on the road w/losing SU and ATS records)

should have the best totals posted later...
 
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Posted: #68

Clemson 73.5

ECU 69 = 142.5/152 = 9.5 pts = PLAY UNDER 152

 
Prospect
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Posted: #69
Sounds like a winer Sergio! I am gonna tail your picks for a while. I am gonna take your 4 plays tonight, leaving the fade and total alone. Keep up the good work. I like the way you separated your best plays. I may put more on them.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #70
Loy Chi is + 11 1/2 vs Bradley. Bought 1/2 and took the 12.
 
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Posted: #71
Wed recap:

1-2-1 sides
1-0 fades
1-0 total
3-2-1 overall

Totals on a 4-0 run to start the season...both tough losses came within 3 points of covering/pushing last night.

Ran the #'s and should have 2 sides, a total and a fade posted later today...
 
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Posted: #72
ytd

14-11-3 sides
2-4 fades
4-0 totals

20-15-3 overall
 
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Posted: #73

THURSDAY

 

FL Int 66

Den 74 = -8/-16 = PLAY ON FL INT +16+ (4-1 road ats, 3-0 L5 ats)

 

Total

CAL D 66

FRESNO 71 = 137/144.5 = 7.5 pts = PLAY UNDER 144.5

Cal D would qualify as a side pick, but upon further review, injuries to several players and starters appear to be the cause of the line adjustment. NO PLAY

 

Fade

Aub 65

FSU 68 -3/-10 = 7 pts = FADE AUBURN (on the road, losing ats records) Auburn has a starter that is injured is ? for tonight. This fade is not a strong opinion as FSU also has losing ats records, so player beware...

 
Captain
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Posted: #74

FRIDAY

NMST 74.5

Pep 70 = +4.5/-3 = 7.5 pts = PLAY NM ST +3

 

Total

UC SB 71

MON ST 74 = 145/135 = PLAY OVER 135

 

Only 2 plays. the fade play would have been against unc-g, but akron offered no ats reasons to back them.

 
 
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Posted: #75
Thursday recap;

1-0 sides
1-0 totals
0-1 fades

2-1 overall. I will be further scutinizing all plays, including fades to qualify as a play.


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