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Pythagorean Plays of the Day

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Posted: #76
It's great what your doing here but after all this work and 224 plays the system as only made $83.50.  Is there anything you can do to make yourself some more profits.  Profits are profits but at this rate it will take forever to make any real money. I understand its a marathon not a sprint and I respect your diligent dedicated form!

keep it going, evolve with it and see what you can do to increase the bottom line!  

Nice work here MrE
 
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Posted: #77
I hear you Oil!  Next phase in the project has been to build a database of games w/ stats, etc for backtesting.  I just found Degen's spreadsheet for baseball (awesome) and downloaded a bunch of years worth of data.  Biggest problem is lack of time to run simulations as both work and social calendars read FULL for me w no letup in sight so my improvements will be gradual and incremental.

That said, this strategy has returned 8.3% in less than 1/2 a season so if I keep that pace and end the year up 15-20%, I'll consider the whole experiment a success, albeit one that always needs improving.  As the game evolves, so must the player. 
 
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Posted: #78
6/18/14

Record: 118-109
Bankroll: 1137.59

Baltimore (125) Bet 22.75 to win 28.44 
Minnesota (153) Bet 22.75 to win 34.81 
Oakland (-164) Bet 22.75 to win 13.87 
San Francisco (121) Bet 22.75 to win 27.53 
Seattle (-128) Bet 22.75 to win 17.77 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
3:35 PM ET Texas [N. Tepesch] (151) at Oakland [S. Gray] (-164) 7.5 

TEX Pythag: 23.18 | Implied: 39.84 | Diff: -16.66 
OAK Pythag: 76.82 | Implied: 62.12 | Diff: 14.70 

TEX PitchP: 23.20 | Implied: 39.84 | Diff: -16.64 
OAK PitchP: 76.80 | Implied: 62.12 | Diff: 14.68 

Oakland (-164) Bet 22.75 to win 13.87 

------------------------ 
You know I'm coming back to Sonny after loss.  A's still not getting the credit they deserve at the betting window.  This is another big mispricing, -300 is fair value.
 
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Posted: #79
Nice work yesterday!

 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:

I hear you Oil!  Next phase in the project has been to build a database of games w/ stats, etc for backtesting.  I just found Degen's spreadsheet for baseball (awesome) and downloaded a bunch of years worth of data.  Biggest problem is lack of time to run simulations as both work and social calendars read FULL for me w no letup in sight so my improvements will be gradual and incremental.

That said, this strategy has returned 8.3% in less than 1/2 a season so if I keep that pace and end the year up 15-20%, I'll consider the whole experiment a success, albeit one that always needs improving.  As the game evolves, so must the player. 

8.3 percent on anything is GREAT!!!!!!  hedgefunds would kill for 8.3 percent on any return.. Keep up the great work , one of the few systems I have seen on here that could last the long hall... gl

 
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Posted: #81
6/19/14

Record: 120-112
Bankroll: 1111.65

Houston (139) Bet 22.23 to win 30.90 
Oakland (-157) Bet 22.23 to win 14.16 
Milwaukee (104) Bet 22.23 to win 23.12 
Washington (-135) Bet 22.23 to win 16.47 
Seattle (112) Bet 22.23 to win 24.90 

Spotlight Play: 
------------------------ 
6:40 PM ET Seattle [E. Ramirez] (112) at San Diego [J. Hahn] (-121) 7 

SEA Pythag: 63.54 | Implied: 47.17 | Diff: 16.37 
SDP Pythag: 36.46 | Implied: 54.75 | Diff: -18.29 

SEA PitchP: 55.70 | Implied: 47.17 | Diff: 8.53 
SDP PitchP: 44.30 | Implied: 54.75 | Diff: -10.45 

Seattle (112) Bet 22.23 to win 24.90 
------------------------ 
M's look like excellent value despite the apparent pitching mismatch.  
 
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Posted: #82
6/20/14

Record: 122-115
Bankroll: 1082.29

Houston (178) Bet 21.65 to win 38.54 
Oakland (-134) Bet 21.65 to win 16.16 
San Francisco (106) Bet 21.65 to win 22.95 
LA Dodgers (-101) Bet 21.65 to win 21.44 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:10 PM ET Houston [J. Cosart] (178) at Tampa Bay [D. Price] (-194) 7 

HOU Pythag: 46.80 | Implied: 35.97 | Diff: 10.83 
TBR Pythag: 53.20 | Implied: 65.99 | Diff: -12.79 

HOU PitchP: 46.11 | Implied: 35.97 | Diff: 10.14 
TBR PitchP: 53.89 | Implied: 65.99 | Diff: -12.10 

Houston (178) Bet 21.65 to win 38.54 

------------------------ 
The machine sees both the team matchup and the pitching matchup to be about even, w/ the rays getting a slight nod at home.  But +178 is way off  and an nice old school value play.
 
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Posted: #83

6/21/14 - Summer Solstice

Record: 124-117

Bankroll: 1093.69

 

Seattle (151) Bet 21.87 to win 33.02
Oakland (-143) Bet 21.87 to win 15.29
Houston (151) Bet 21.87 to win 33.02
San Francisco (103) Bet 21.87 to win 22.53
LA Dodgers (-109) Bet 21.87 to win 20.06

Spotlight Play:

------------------------
10:10 PM ET   LA Dodgers [J. Beckett] (-109) at San Diego [T. Ross] (101)   6.5

LAD Pythag: 62.08 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 9.93
SDP Pythag: 37.92 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -11.83

LAD PitchP: 65.43 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 13.28
SDP PitchP: 34.57 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -15.18

LA Dodgers (-109) Bet 21.87 to win 20.06

------------------------

 
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Posted: #84
Stro's (like white sox) sure to suck today;
otherwise you swept the board Mr. E
 

 
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Posted: #85
6/23/14

Record: 128-118
Bankroll: 1162.72

San Francisco (-155) Bet 23.25 to win 15.00 
Pittsburgh (141) Bet 23.25 to win 32.78 

Spotlight Play:
10:15 PM ET San Diego [O. Despaigne] (143) at San Francisco [M. Cain] (-155) 7 

SDP Pythag: 27.90 | Implied: 41.15 | Diff: -13.25 
SFG Pythag: 72.10 | Implied: 60.78 | Diff: 11.32 

SDP PitchP: 33.48 | Implied: 41.15 | Diff: -7.67 
SFG PitchP: 66.52 | Implied: 60.78 | Diff: 5.74 

San Francisco (-155) Bet 23.25 to win 15.00 

------------------------
Giants getting exellent pricing at home in one of the late games.
 
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Posted: #86
Thanks Pendo. Account at new highs but as you know, another day another struggle another set of games to juggle.
 
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Posted: #87
6/24/14

Record: 129-119
Bankroll: 1172.25

Toronto (-137) Bet 23.45 to win 17.12 
Seattle (-109) Bet 23.45 to win 21.51 
San Francisco (-150) Bet 23.45 to win 15.63 
Pittsburgh (123) Bet 23.45 to win 28.84 
Oakland (-139) Bet 23.45 to win 16.87 
Kansas City (140) Bet 23.45 to win 32.83 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
10:10 PM ET Boston [J. Peavy] (101) at Seattle [E. Ramirez] (-109) 7.5 

BOS Pythag: 35.03 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -14.72 
SEA Pythag: 64.97 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 12.82 

BOS PitchP: 39.82 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -9.93 
SEA PitchP: 60.18 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 8.03 

Seattle (-109) Bet 23.45 to win 21.51 

------------------------ 
Seattle getting almost even money odds despite a 60% chance of winning.  Book that edge.  Total of 7.5 also looks very low, considering the starters.
 
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Posted: #88
6/25/14

Record: 132-122
Bankroll: 1169.37

Toronto (-105) Bet 23.39 to win 22.28 
Seattle (-133) Bet 23.39 to win 17.59 
San Francisco (-120) Bet 23.39 to win 19.49 
Pittsburgh (155) Bet 23.39 to win 36.25 
LA Dodgers (130) Bet 23.39 to win 30.41 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
12:10 PM ET Pittsburgh [C. Morton] (155) at Tampa Bay [D. Price] (-168) 7 

PIT Pythag: 51.43 | Implied: 39.22 | Diff: 12.21 
TBR Pythag: 48.57 | Implied: 62.69 | Diff: -14.12 

PIT PitchP: 54.40 | Implied: 39.22 | Diff: 15.18 
TBR PitchP: 45.60 | Implied: 62.69 | Diff: -17.09 

Pittsburgh (155) Bet 23.39 to win 36.25 

------------------------ 
Pirates looking for the sweep must go through Price, who has been improving as the year goes on but has been handicapped in the win dept by poor Rays hitting.  That may be just the tonic for a struggling Morton.
 
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Posted: #89
Really would like to know what parameters you use in calculating both the Pythag and PitchP. I think we all can figure out the implied %s. Just like to know what criteria you use and how much weight is applied to each.

I get the entire premise about how you spider and obtain your data. Just like to know how you use it. If this does not want to be know publicly, I get that. PM if you would like.

BTW I love this. 
 
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Posted: #90
6/26/14

Record: 134-125
Bankroll: 1149.10

For the first time this year, no games qualified.  

Regarding the parameters, I don't like to get into the details of my secret sauce, but I can tell you that the pitchers are graded based on ERA, FIP and ERA plus.   
 
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Posted: #91
6/27/14

Record: 134-125
Bankroll: 1149.10

Baltimore (-103) Bet 22.98 to win 22.31 
Seattle (106) Bet 22.98 to win 24.36 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
10:10 PM ET Cleveland [T. Bauer] (-115) at Seattle [C. Young] (106) 8 

CLE Pythag: 35.56 | Implied: 53.49 | Diff: -17.93 
SEA Pythag: 64.44 | Implied: 48.54 | Diff: 15.90 

CLE PitchP: 38.55 | Implied: 53.49 | Diff: -14.94 
SEA PitchP: 61.45 | Implied: 48.54 | Diff: 12.91 

Seattle (106) Bet 22.98 to win 24.36 

------------------------ 
The M's have proven to be feisty about collecting dog money at home.
 
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Posted: #92
6/28/14: Dog Day Afternoon

Record: 136-125
Bankroll: 1195.77

Minnesota (148) Bet 23.92 to win 35.40
Seattle (-119) Bet 23.92 to win 20.10
Chi. Cubs (141) Bet 23.92 to win 33.73
Philadelphia (115) Bet 23.92 to win 27.51

Spotlight Play:
------------------------
10:10 PM ET      Cleveland [J. Tomlin] (110) at Seattle [R. Elias] (-119)      7.5

CLE Pythag: 35.37 | Implied: 47.62 | Diff: -12.25
SEA Pythag: 64.63 | Implied: 54.34 | Diff: 10.29

CLE PitchP: 40.58 | Implied: 47.62 | Diff: -7.04
SEA PitchP: 59.42 | Implied: 54.34 | Diff: 5.08

Seattle (-119) Bet 23.92 to win 20.10

------------------------
Will ride the M's train again as the mispricing in Seattle continues.
 
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Posted: #93
6/29/14

Record: 136-129
Bankroll: 1100.09

Toronto (-129) Bet 22.00 to win 17.05
Baltimore (104) Bet 22.00 to win 22.88
Oakland (-118) Bet 22.00 to win 18.64

Spotlight Play:
------------------------
1:35 PM ET      Tampa Bay [A. Cobb] (-113) at Baltimore [M. Gonzalez] (104)      8.5

TBR Pythag: 38.92 | Implied: 53.05 | Diff: -14.13
BAL Pythag: 61.08 | Implied: 49.02 | Diff: 12.06

TBR PitchP: 40.11 | Implied: 53.05 | Diff: -12.94
BAL PitchP: 59.89 | Implied: 49.02 | Diff: 10.87

Baltimore (104) Bet 22.00 to win 22.88

------------------------
Rays get a slight nod on the pitching matchup but not enough to counter the overwhelming value presented by the O's.
 
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Posted: #94
6/30/14

Record: 137-131
Bankroll: 1074.73

Oakland (122) Bet 21.49 to win 26.22 
LA Dodgers (109) Bet 21.49 to win 23.42 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
10:10 PM ET Cleveland [C. Kluber] (-118) at LA Dodgers [D. Haren] (109) 7 

39-42 Kluber (123) [29] 3.09 [4.09]
47-37 Haren (93) [-19] 3.83 [3.21]

CLE PitchP: 45.05 | Implied: 54.13 | Diff: -9.08 
LAD PitchP: 54.95 | Implied: 47.85 | Diff: 7.10 

LA Dodgers (109) Bet 21.49 to win 23.42 
------------------------ 
The Dojers catch the Tribe deep into a West Coast swing and suffering from the King Felix flu.  
 
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Posted: #95
Good luck Mr. E.

 
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Posted: #96
7/1/14

Record: 138-132
Bankroll: 1076.66

NY Yankees (115) Bet 21.53 to win 24.76 
NY Mets (165) Bet 21.53 to win 35.52 
Cincinnati (-102) Bet 21.53 to win 21.11 
Chi. Cubs (156) Bet 21.53 to win 33.59 
LA Dodgers (-137) Bet 21.53 to win 15.72 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs [E. Jackson] (156) at Boston [C. Buchholz] (-170) 9.5 

CHC Pythag: 49.11 | Implied: 39.06 | Diff: 10.05 
BOS Pythag: 50.89 | Implied: 62.96 | Diff: -12.07 

CHC PitchP: 54.19 | Implied: 39.06 | Diff: 15.13 
BOS PitchP: 45.81 | Implied: 62.96 | Diff: -17.15 

Chi. Cubs (156) Bet 21.53 to win 33.59 

------------------------ 
Cubbies a big dog at the betting window but they're better than a coin toss to win this thing.
 
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Posted: #97
7/2/14

Record: 139-136
Bankroll: 1024.13

Oakland (100) Bet 20.48 to win 20.48 
Seattle (-106) Bet 20.48 to win 19.32 
Miami (113) Bet 20.48 to win 23.14 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
2:10 PM ET Seattle [C. Young] (-106) at Houston [B. Peacock] (-102) 8.5 

SEA Pythag: 63.77 | Implied: 51.46 | Diff: 12.31 
HOU Pythag: 36.23 | Implied: 50.50 | Diff: -14.27 

SEA PitchP: 63.90 | Implied: 51.46 | Diff: 12.44 
HOU PitchP: 36.10 | Implied: 50.50 | Diff: -14.40 

Seattle (-106) Bet 20.48 to win 19.32 

------------------------ 
M's continue to be priced well below their pythagorean value.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #98
Mr. EC,

Was wondering how you decide which game to spotlight out of the, say, 4 or 5 games you post.

Is it the one with the most variance from the implied odds?

Not asking for trade secrets;  just curious.

Also, I sent you a friend request.  Would appreciate it if you'd accept.

Thanks,

Pat


 
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Posted: #99
7/3/14

Record: 141-138
Bankroll: 1046.11

Baltimore (105) Bet 20.92 to win 21.97
Oakland (-151) Bet 20.92 to win 13.85
LA Angels (-168) Bet 20.92 to win 12.45

Spotlight Play:
------------------------
10:05 PM ET      Houston [B. Oberholtzer] (155) at LA Angels [M. Shoemaker] (-168)      8.5

HOU Pythag: 30.41 | Implied: 39.22 | Diff: -8.81
LAA Pythag: 69.59 | Implied: 62.69 | Diff: 6.90

HOU PitchP: 30.53 | Implied: 39.22 | Diff: -8.69
LAA PitchP: 69.47 | Implied: 62.69 | Diff: 6.78

LA Angels (-168) Bet 20.92 to win 12.45

------------------------
Oberholtzer sits at the bottom of the less than inspiring Astros rotation and gets the red hot Angels returning home, where they have been dominant lately.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Buford, I generally spotlight the highest variance game but sometimes will feature games w/ particularly high or low odds to show that value can be obtained at any price level.   

In related notes, I finally completed my backtester and have successfully modeled this system.  With some time free over the holiday weekend, I plan to get busy testing additional strategies that have percolating in my mind recently. 
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