So I would say that there were a couple of times where things got a little bit scary, but being up 16 units in a month off of the system isn't bad at all. Let's win more in July.
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So I would say that there were a couple of times where things got a little bit scary, but being up 16 units in a month off of the system isn't bad at all. Let's win more in July.
PLayed NYY -1.5 and they're down 6-2 which is unfreakingbelievable in my opinion. Seattle is a below average team hitting lefties and the Yanks crush lefties. CC is completely off right now and I'm shocked how he's messing up vs. basically a AAAA lineup vs. lefties. With Branyan and Griffey helpless vs. lefties, this should not be anything of an issue. Looks like we'll go on to Game C tomorrow, kids.
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PLayed NYY -1.5 and they're down 6-2 which is unfreakingbelievable in my opinion. Seattle is a below average team hitting lefties and the Yanks crush lefties. CC is completely off right now and I'm shocked how he's messing up vs. basically a AAAA lineup vs. lefties. With Branyan and Griffey helpless vs. lefties, this should not be anything of an issue. Looks like we'll go on to Game C tomorrow, kids.
Looks like BOS, COL, or SF tomorrow. Love Timmy's matchup but those bats still worry me. Cook has been money lately but a Coors game is always a ? Probably gonna be either Boston or Colorado. Will post tomorrow.
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Looks like BOS, COL, or SF tomorrow. Love Timmy's matchup but those bats still worry me. Cook has been money lately but a Coors game is always a ? Probably gonna be either Boston or Colorado. Will post tomorrow.
07/04: Happy 4th everyone. Have a fun and safe night. Please take a step back and thank our troops for all they have done to keep us safe and also how far we have come in these past 200+ years.
Today's play: Series 18 Game A BOS RL -1.5 @ -102 System YTD: 17-0
Overall YTD: 17-15-4
Comments: Juice too big to play the RL -1. Boston crushes lefties although Olson has been passable lately. Penny is starting to pitch a little better after a .300+ BAA his first two months. Hopefully Seattle's AL East swing starts to take a bit of a toll on them.
I will almost certainly be playing COL RL tonight (haven't decided if it is -1 or -1.5) against Petit and ARZ. Petit is just coming off the DL right now, pitched mediocre in his rehab start, and ARZ as a team is flat out tanking at this point. COL has been hot and Cook has been money this past month. Especially away, but I will take this matchup at Coors anyway.
Again, happy 4th, y'all.
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07/04: Happy 4th everyone. Have a fun and safe night. Please take a step back and thank our troops for all they have done to keep us safe and also how far we have come in these past 200+ years.
Today's play: Series 18 Game A BOS RL -1.5 @ -102 System YTD: 17-0
Overall YTD: 17-15-4
Comments: Juice too big to play the RL -1. Boston crushes lefties although Olson has been passable lately. Penny is starting to pitch a little better after a .300+ BAA his first two months. Hopefully Seattle's AL East swing starts to take a bit of a toll on them.
I will almost certainly be playing COL RL tonight (haven't decided if it is -1 or -1.5) against Petit and ARZ. Petit is just coming off the DL right now, pitched mediocre in his rehab start, and ARZ as a team is flat out tanking at this point. COL has been hot and Cook has been money this past month. Especially away, but I will take this matchup at Coors anyway.
Good idea, kreatture. Vegas is just trying to bait so hard with SF. They tried it last time with Lincecum's start @STL with a very short line and lost $ on that. I'm not gonna touch SF, but BOS looks like shit right now...I think it's gonna end up being COL as the 2nd play for me.
Would be very surprising for all 3 large favorites to lose in a day though. Good luck, man.
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Good idea, kreatture. Vegas is just trying to bait so hard with SF. They tried it last time with Lincecum's start @STL with a very short line and lost $ on that. I'm not gonna touch SF, but BOS looks like shit right now...I think it's gonna end up being COL as the 2nd play for me.
Would be very surprising for all 3 large favorites to lose in a day though. Good luck, man.
Congrats kreatture on having the stones to play SF. I couldn't pull the trigger (play was so heavily hit by the public...despite a horrid WHIP, Russ Ortiz's ERA has actually been very good before tonight) and watch it bite me in the ass tonight. Numbers were 82/18 ML for SF and 98/2 for the RL with a small amount of line movement. Scary, scary, scary.
Anyway, on to tonight.
Series 18 Game B COL RL -1.5 @ +107 System YTD: 17-0
Overall YTD: 17-16-4
Love Boston against Seattle coming back tomorrow with a hot Jon Lester on the mound. Also love Cleveland going against a team that cannot hit lefties for their lives in Oakland...I think Cliff will make a comeback off his last terrible start vs. CWS.
Both games are at the same time so we'll see. I am really toying with the idea of playing both. If Colorado loses tonight...to split up the chase between Boston and Cleveland. Decent risk management, I suppose.
If Colorado wins, I might play both to win a unit. If both win, awesome. If one wins and one loses...call it a win on one series and move on to Game B in the other Series for Monday. If both lose, start a chase with Game B for 1 unit PLUS perhaps a quarter of the amount lost on one of the games. Then continue to chase the rest of the amount lost in Game A of each subsequent series. Simply $ management I am trying there.
GL all.
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Congrats kreatture on having the stones to play SF. I couldn't pull the trigger (play was so heavily hit by the public...despite a horrid WHIP, Russ Ortiz's ERA has actually been very good before tonight) and watch it bite me in the ass tonight. Numbers were 82/18 ML for SF and 98/2 for the RL with a small amount of line movement. Scary, scary, scary.
Anyway, on to tonight.
Series 18 Game B COL RL -1.5 @ +107 System YTD: 17-0
Overall YTD: 17-16-4
Love Boston against Seattle coming back tomorrow with a hot Jon Lester on the mound. Also love Cleveland going against a team that cannot hit lefties for their lives in Oakland...I think Cliff will make a comeback off his last terrible start vs. CWS.
Both games are at the same time so we'll see. I am really toying with the idea of playing both. If Colorado loses tonight...to split up the chase between Boston and Cleveland. Decent risk management, I suppose.
If Colorado wins, I might play both to win a unit. If both win, awesome. If one wins and one loses...call it a win on one series and move on to Game B in the other Series for Monday. If both lose, start a chase with Game B for 1 unit PLUS perhaps a quarter of the amount lost on one of the games. Then continue to chase the rest of the amount lost in Game A of each subsequent series. Simply $ management I am trying there.
I've been looking at the Colorado game and I think I am going to play on them. The rain showers scare me with the RL so I'll also make a play on the ML and parley it with the Angels ML. Petit is just horrible and I don't see him faring well tonight, and if there is a rain delay early on, the Arizona bullpen will be forced into action which is just as good for Colorado.
Cook's dad is on hand tonight to see his son pitch, always a good thing. The Colorado bullpen is very well rested so if they are forced into action due to a delay, there should be plenty of arms out there to get the job done.
BOL
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I've been looking at the Colorado game and I think I am going to play on them. The rain showers scare me with the RL so I'll also make a play on the ML and parley it with the Angels ML. Petit is just horrible and I don't see him faring well tonight, and if there is a rain delay early on, the Arizona bullpen will be forced into action which is just as good for Colorado.
Cook's dad is on hand tonight to see his son pitch, always a good thing. The Colorado bullpen is very well rested so if they are forced into action due to a delay, there should be plenty of arms out there to get the job done.
You're tellin me.. worst day I've had in a few weeks.. wish I hadn't played the Rockies RL and that parley late tonight.. altho I still think it was a good play. Weird game in Colorado there..
Altho those were small losses, combined with the Red Sox Chase I have going this weekend, I feel right depressed tonight.. ugh
Been rollin really amazin this week, was bound to have one semi-bad day I guess.
Still way up for the week, not sure how I'm gonna play tomorrow yet.. see what kind of juice is on the Sex again I guess an go from there.
BOL
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You're tellin me.. worst day I've had in a few weeks.. wish I hadn't played the Rockies RL and that parley late tonight.. altho I still think it was a good play. Weird game in Colorado there..
Altho those were small losses, combined with the Red Sox Chase I have going this weekend, I feel right depressed tonight.. ugh
Been rollin really amazin this week, was bound to have one semi-bad day I guess.
Still way up for the week, not sure how I'm gonna play tomorrow yet.. see what kind of juice is on the Sex again I guess an go from there.
Juices flowing a little too much there, kreatture? Good work on SF, though. At least you cleared that part of the chase. Good info on Cook's dad...guess his kid cracked a bit under pressure. Not a terrible start by any means but the pen just faltered.
Sorry for the late post.
Series 18 Game C Split play: CLE RL -1.5 AND BOS RL -1.5 (half the chase on each) System YTD: 17-0
Overall YTD: 17-17-4
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Juices flowing a little too much there, kreatture? Good work on SF, though. At least you cleared that part of the chase. Good info on Cook's dad...guess his kid cracked a bit under pressure. Not a terrible start by any means but the pen just faltered.
Sorry for the late post.
Series 18 Game C Split play: CLE RL -1.5 AND BOS RL -1.5 (half the chase on each) System YTD: 17-0
Overall YTD: 17-17-4
IF both lose, continue the chase for Game D...hope this doesn't happen. Stupid CLE couldn't score with corners 1 out bottom 2nd and are down 1-0, but it's early. Don't want it to get to battle of the pens, though. Gio sucks. Not MLB ready.
IF one wins, one loses, continue the chase (not sure if I'm gonna go to D with half of C lost..or do C again). Will look at some #s for that.
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BTW here's the plan for those wondering:
IF both win, series is completed.
IF both lose, continue the chase for Game D...hope this doesn't happen. Stupid CLE couldn't score with corners 1 out bottom 2nd and are down 1-0, but it's early. Don't want it to get to battle of the pens, though. Gio sucks. Not MLB ready.
IF one wins, one loses, continue the chase (not sure if I'm gonna go to D with half of C lost..or do C again). Will look at some #s for that.
Okay, for accounting purposes, I actually came out on top like .1 of a unit, as the split play was basically a WASH. For comparison's sake, I chased 4.7 units on Sunday and am chasing only 4.4 today. I know...huge difference. So I am not going to count this game in my YTD plays, as I can't really say it was a win or a loss. And it wasn't a technical push, either.
Series 18 Game C BOS RL -1.5 @ +111 to win 4.3 u System YTD: 17-0
Overall YTD: 17-17-4
Notes: Smoltz is not stretched out at all at this point but Boston has the best pen in the league...although the loss of R. Ramirez for a few days hurts. Oakland came in from Cleveland...Boston hits lefties pretty well...I like this matchup.
Also considered LAA vs. Texas. I really like this spot for LA with Texas coming off a pretty late game last night. Millwood's FIP is actually in the 4+ range and he has been amazingly lucky with absurdly high strand rates and a very low BABIP. However, I think the return of Hambone will spark this Texas team a bit and thus I really don't want to pick against them his first game back.
COL has not hit at all lately. This Nats team (my home TV team) has been rejuvenated lately and Stammen has been rather scrappy.
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Okay, for accounting purposes, I actually came out on top like .1 of a unit, as the split play was basically a WASH. For comparison's sake, I chased 4.7 units on Sunday and am chasing only 4.4 today. I know...huge difference. So I am not going to count this game in my YTD plays, as I can't really say it was a win or a loss. And it wasn't a technical push, either.
Series 18 Game C BOS RL -1.5 @ +111 to win 4.3 u System YTD: 17-0
Overall YTD: 17-17-4
Notes: Smoltz is not stretched out at all at this point but Boston has the best pen in the league...although the loss of R. Ramirez for a few days hurts. Oakland came in from Cleveland...Boston hits lefties pretty well...I like this matchup.
Also considered LAA vs. Texas. I really like this spot for LA with Texas coming off a pretty late game last night. Millwood's FIP is actually in the 4+ range and he has been amazingly lucky with absurdly high strand rates and a very low BABIP. However, I think the return of Hambone will spark this Texas team a bit and thus I really don't want to pick against them his first game back.
COL has not hit at all lately. This Nats team (my home TV team) has been rejuvenated lately and Stammen has been rather scrappy.
Trying to not be pissed about not pulling the trigger on LAA, but it's tough. Knew that line was begging for action on TEX. But hey, it's a system so it's good to have some discipline. Let's just hope it doesn't bite me in the ass tomorrow.
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Trying to not be pissed about not pulling the trigger on LAA, but it's tough. Knew that line was begging for action on TEX. But hey, it's a system so it's good to have some discipline. Let's just hope it doesn't bite me in the ass tomorrow.
Series 18 Game D Splitting again to minimize risk 75% on BOS RL -1.5 -114 with 25% on DET RL -1.5 @ +105
Hope this one works out.
Boston has been hitting ice cold and somehow Oakland has won two in a row..one vs. Cliff Lee and the other @ fenway no less. Beckett has pitched well as of late and should be able to get it going this time. Dana Eveland was just called up and while decent at times, is nothing more than a long man sort. Hopefully Boston, who traditionally hits lefties well and has Dustin Pedroia back in the lineup tonight, can make noise.
A little bit of RLM with the Tigers. It almost seems like VEgas does this every time Bruce Chen pitches for some reason...as if they actually buy into him. I'm on Verlander still and I think they will bounce back with a win tonight after a disappointing job hitting the ball yesterday after a solid outing by Galaraaga.
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Series 18 Game D Splitting again to minimize risk 75% on BOS RL -1.5 -114 with 25% on DET RL -1.5 @ +105
Hope this one works out.
Boston has been hitting ice cold and somehow Oakland has won two in a row..one vs. Cliff Lee and the other @ fenway no less. Beckett has pitched well as of late and should be able to get it going this time. Dana Eveland was just called up and while decent at times, is nothing more than a long man sort. Hopefully Boston, who traditionally hits lefties well and has Dustin Pedroia back in the lineup tonight, can make noise.
A little bit of RLM with the Tigers. It almost seems like VEgas does this every time Bruce Chen pitches for some reason...as if they actually buy into him. I'm on Verlander still and I think they will bounce back with a win tonight after a disappointing job hitting the ball yesterday after a solid outing by Galaraaga.
Series 19 Game B SF RL -1.5 @ -111 vs. SD System YTD: 18-0
Overall YTD: 18-19-4
Loss last night. Sort of surprised that didn't win...Oliver Perez walked like six batters and the Dodgers just could never take advantage. A reeling Mets' team certainly picked up a big W there.
Well, Timmy goes for SF tonight and the juice is massive. Have not played a -1 for a pretty long time now...just huge juice. Didn't last night because road teams have a better chance of covering the 1.5 and I figured the Dodgers could take a decent lead. Worked out for the best, as I lost less juice by losing it completely.
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Series 19 Game B SF RL -1.5 @ -111 vs. SD System YTD: 18-0
Overall YTD: 18-19-4
Loss last night. Sort of surprised that didn't win...Oliver Perez walked like six batters and the Dodgers just could never take advantage. A reeling Mets' team certainly picked up a big W there.
Well, Timmy goes for SF tonight and the juice is massive. Have not played a -1 for a pretty long time now...just huge juice. Didn't last night because road teams have a better chance of covering the 1.5 and I figured the Dodgers could take a decent lead. Worked out for the best, as I lost less juice by losing it completely.
Oops. Forgot to post last night. SF cleared with Lincecum but yesterday's play was the -1.5 on Boston, the clear favorite. That didn't work out too hot. So Game B today. Will take a look at a few numbers but the overwhelming favorite right now looks to be PHI.
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Oops. Forgot to post last night. SF cleared with Lincecum but yesterday's play was the -1.5 on Boston, the clear favorite. That didn't work out too hot. So Game B today. Will take a look at a few numbers but the overwhelming favorite right now looks to be PHI.
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Good work on SF, though. At least you cleared that part of the chase. Good info on Cook's dad...guess his kid cracked a bit under pressure. Not a terrible start by any means but the pen just faltered.
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