Saber Stunner

Hi Folks,

its been a long wait but its finally over...I have finetuned my excel-sheet as much as possible (at least from my perspective) and will post the plays for opening day later on...stay tuned, I am looking forward to the new season

You even have a cool name for it! HaHa, awesome.

It's gonna be a great summer and Sabermetrics will guide the way! MLB is the one sport where a pure numbers guy can actually consistently make a good return, unlike the other sports.

Will your thread here be open to discussion on Sabermetrics, like posting different formulas which people use and such, or would you prefer to just keep this thread for the picks?

Can't believe tomorrow is Opening Day.. I'm SO EXCITED!!   

Good luck Call82,

Glad to see you're back

@ jay: I liked it too, but the fluctuations got pretty heavy sometimes and I have to say, I feel more comfortable with actually capping the games than just following the old chase :-)

@ kreatture: I would eb more than happy to discuss Sabermetrics in here, one thing I have discussed with a couple of people before (and it seems I am the only one with my optinion) is that GDP should be counted as two outs since I also foce someone else into an out which is not counted in his stats...happy to discuss

@therizz: Glad to be back, hope we will have a fun and profitable year together...

Picks will follow within the next hours...YEEEEEAHA, the day is finally there....PLAY  !!!!!!!!!!!

Hey Call! Welcome back!

Here we go for today:

ATL@WAS; Due to my numbers this game should be in the -150s so I go with 0.5 Units on ATL (@-134)

MIL@CIN; With the posted lineups, CIN owns Gallardo, I have a line up in the -180s so I go with 0.5 Units on CIN here (@-112)

SD@STL: Biggest game for me today, RL on STL @+127 with 1 Unit; see a score of 7-3...

Good luck everyone!

LAA ML? .5 units? 

OK Folks,

during the last couple of years I have learned that recapping your picks is an important part of the learning process, so lets take a look at what we had:

ATL: Looks like a solid win, they have never really been in a sot where I thought the game could change negatively.

CIN: Lucky win, although the stats showed that the CIN bats should have scored 5-6 runs in the first 6 innings...they had the hits for it but didnt score that much, the over pick was solid though.

LAA: Solid pick as well, the controlled the game, at least the time that I have watched.

STL: I still think this was a solid pick. In the first 7 innings, they "outhitted (is that a real word? I hope you know what I am talking about anyway) SD by 10-2 but didnt get the runs in, I think we had loaded bases twice...I would pick it again anytime.

SF: Pure valueplay, didnt see how you can (despite opening day home advantage) give us SF with Timmy for +money...I had them at -112....was a close game.

Here are the stats for the young season:

2011 Season

Money Line:  3 - 1 ;  1,0 Units
Run Line:      0 - 1 ; -1,0 Units
Over/Under:   1 - 0 ;  0,5 Units

Total:       4 - 2 ; 0,5 Units

Todays picks will follow later...

2011 Season

Money Line:  3 - 1 ;  1,0 Units
Run Line:      0 - 1 ; -1,0 Units
Over/Under:   1 - 0 ;  0,5 Units

Total:       4 - 2 ; 0,5 Units

Picks for today:

HOU@PHI; HOU +1.5 @+107 Matchbook 0.5 Units

HOU@PHI Over 7 @+108 Matchbook 0.5 Units

PIT@CHC PIT @+163 Matchbook 0.5 Units

ARI@COL COL RL @+117 Matchbook 1 Unit

CWS@CLE CWS @-101 Matchbook 0.5 Units

BOS@TEX TEX @+112 Matchbook 0.5 Units

BAL@TB BAL @+175 Matchbook 0.5 Units

LAA@KC KC @+127 Matchbook 0.5 Units

GL everyone

Call

Nice Start - the word is "outhit"  And yep, I was on St. Louis and thought the same thing with all those hits in the early innings.