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Saber Stunner

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Posted: #26

WOW!

Wishing you continued success!

 
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Posted: #27
Chill the fuck out everyone.. we're 2 days into the Season.

That being said.. I just got done endorsing this thread in my own thread. Proper Sabermetrics will guide you to a successful SEASON.

Don't go nuts over 1 day. MLB of all sports is truly the Marathon. Recap what you did today and realize why it was a successful day.. apply those reasons to tomorrow and maybe you'll be so lucky again.

Don't EVER let a couple of good days get inside your head. Do the work, place the bets, don't even worry about the winners and the losers.. you WILL make money in the long run if you follow the rules.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

Chill the fuck out everyone.. we're 2 days into the Season.

That being said.. I just got done endorsing this thread in my own thread. Proper Sabermetrics will guide you to a successful SEASON.

Don't go nuts over 1 day. MLB of all sports is truly the Marathon. Recap what you did today and realize why it was a successful day.. apply those reasons to tomorrow and maybe you'll be so lucky again.

Don't EVER let a couple of good days get inside your head. Do the work, place the bets, don't even worry about the winners and the losers.. you WILL make money in the long run if you follow the rules.
  WHY IS THIS YOUR THREAD
 
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Posted: #29
 WHATS WRONG WITH TELLING CALL82 HE DID A GOOD JOB
 
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Posted: #30

Nice Job

 
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Posted: #31
Jay, I didn't say this was my thread.. I said I mentioned this thread in my Playbook thread and was recommending people to check it out here. It should do very well this Season. Good Luck today.
 
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Posted: #32
Guys, most important thing first: My Indians just got their first win

It was JUST a good day, trust me, I am happy about it too! Thx for all the well wishes and everything, but kreatture ist right, it was just the second day of the season...I am kind of suprised that SaberStunner works that well, lets see how we continue from here...As I stated before, the first two weeks will be with 1/2 Units to get comfortable....feel free to bet more but I will stick to that...MLB really is a marathon....I will be back tomorrow with mondays picks...

cheers everybody....

PS: Is anyone from SF? I will be there during the whole month of may, would be cool id some peps could tell me about nice places to go.. have two little girls (4 and 1 years old), so any playgrounds recommended?
 
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Posted: #33
Wow, did I just stumble across a potential goldmine?! Lol. Looks like a lot of excitement going on in here, so definitely will keep watch on this thread. Thanks so much for sharing, Call82. I'm guessing you're in the military out there in Germany? Forgive me if I'm wrong. Best of luck!!
 
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Posted: #34
what is it oktoberfest out there?  why aren't you playing any games this weekend?
 
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Posted: #35

2011 Season

Money Line:  8 - 1 ;  4.39 Units
Run Line:    1 - 2 ; -1.47 Units
Over/Under:  2 - 0 ;  1.04 Units

Total:       11 - 3 ; 3.96 Units


Friday

Money Line:  5 - 0 ;  3.39 Units
Run Line:    1 - 1 ; -0.47 Units
Over/Under:  1 - 0 ;  0.54 Units

Total:       7 - 1 ; 3.46 Units

 
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Posted: #36

@ Keano: I am from Germany and I am German, this just shows you how statistic driven baseball is. I know hardly a third of the players, but (I think) I know the math behind the game and can (again I think so) seperate a good line from a bad one. Hope the good luck will continue.

@Clubdirt: Have to be honest, I have never been to the Oktoberfest, I live in the north of Germany and Munich is not a city I like alot...I dont play on the weekend because my weekends are completely dedicated to my family. As you can imagin, capping with a sabermetrican approach takes quite some time and I just dont want to spent that time on the weekend.

 
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Posted: #37
Due to an important meeting at work and the fact that there are no lineups out yet, I wont be able to post any plays for today. Sorry guys, should be back by tomorrow!
 
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Posted: #38

Quote Originally Posted by Call82:

Due to an important meeting at work and the fact that there are no lineups out yet, I wont be able to post any plays for today. Sorry guys, should be back by tomorrow!


No problems. Will look forward to your postings when you get the chance! Good luck.

 
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Posted: #39
thats right dude.  family is first.  job second.  us degeneratives comes third..  

 
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Posted: #40

OK Folks,

the first bets are in the bag, being:

ATL +103, 0.5 Units...Pure value play, the pitcher matchup gets me a line of -127 for Milwaukee, BUT Atlanta is hitting Milwaukee´s Pen pretty well and the hitting matchup gives me ATL heavily so my total line is @ ATL-113, thats why I go with the +103 from Matchbook.

NYY Runline +105, 1 Unit...Sabathia is heavily overprized on the ML, as my data tells me the line for the first 5 innings should be around -112 (without taking the hitters into account)...I guess that what they mean with public team? LOL  In this matchup I have a score of 8.4 (NYY) to 5.2(MIN), so risk/reward tells me to go with the runline.

 

More plays to follow later on.

 
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Posted: #41

Next one:

KC +112, 0.5 Units...I have a final score of 4.1 (KC) to 3.7(CWS) which translates into a line of -123 for KC...I take the +112 from Matchbook

 
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Posted: #42
SF -119, 0.5 Units...here I go with 4.4(SF) to 2.9(SD) for a line of -196...big mismatch, but both bets have been cool so far, thats why I play only 0.5 Units.
 
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Posted: #43

Thats it for today Gentlemen, I hope we will be able to collect some coins later on!

 

GL everyone

 
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Posted: #44
 
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Posted: #45

Love the Giants tonight 

Can you explain the Braves play a lil more? I have a similar line on the Brewers (-125) but the real line is actually lower (-114, Pinnacle) which would show me Value on Milwaukee. I feel the Braves should be a slightly bigger Dog than the +107 (Pinnacle) currently offered.

That's a big enough difference for me to warrant a play on the Brewers.

Great work Call, love this thread.

Cheers 

 
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Posted: #46

Ah, nevermind. The end of the lines are cut off on this page for me.

So I tried to copy/paste your post into word and then I was able

to read the rest of that line. I thought you were basing the play

purely off the pitching matchup which didn't make sense to me

cuz I couldn't read the hitting comment.

Good Luck 

 
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Posted: #47
Nice looking picks today, Call82! Best of luck for today!
 
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Posted: #48
Late Add-in: I double up on the Giants since the line got even better, another 0.5 Units @-118 on the Giants
 
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Posted: #49
Aww 1-3. What happened, man?! BOL on next plays.
 
 
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Posted: #50
any plays today
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