Saber Stunner

2011 Season

Money Line:  8 - 1 ;  4.39 Units
Run Line:    1 - 2 ; -1.47 Units
Over/Under:  2 - 0 ;  1.04 Units

Total:       12 - 6 ; 1.83 Units

Last Plays

Money Line:  1 - 2 ; -1.13 Units
Run Line:    0 - 1 ; -1.00 Units
Over/Under:  0 - 0 ;  0.00 Units

Total:       1 - 3 ; -2.13 Units

Hi Guys,

I realized an (unwelcome) pattern so far, the games I like the most (1 Unit plays) have gone all wrong, that costs some performance I have to admit. Today I will only have 0.5 Unit plays, but with the start of next week I will get into the regular mode - being 1 Unit plays as the minimum.

Todays plays:

COL@PIT; COL+105 for 0.5 Units - I have a line of -123 for them

NYM@PHI; NYM +189 for 0.5 Units - numbers say, this should be a close one...

WAS@FLA ; FLA RL +130 for 0.5 Units - numbers show me a score in the 5-2 or 5-3 area....

BOS@CLE; BOS RL +101 for 0.5 Units - situational pick, not only counting on the numbers...Carmona sucks (I am Cleveland fan, sorry for that), BOS is overdue and the numbers have BOS at -180...dont want to overpay here...

OAK@TOR; OAK +114 - I have OAK at -109

Thats it Gentlemen, lets get some money back...

Ok, forgot two picks:

TB@CWS; CWS-109; BE AWARE: This one would be my pick of the day, I have a line of -155 in here...would usually play 1 Unit here...BE AWARE, these picks sucked so far :-) I will make it a 0.5 Unit play, then it should work

OAK/TOR Under 8 @-107; I see around 6 runs in here...

GL everyone

Updated record as of Thursday:

2011 Season

Money Line:  9 - 3 ;  3.26 Units
Run Line:    1 - 3 ; -2.47 Units
Over/Under:  2 - 0 ;  1.04 Units

Total:       12 - 6 ; 1.83 Units

Last Plays

Money Line:  1 - 2 ; -1.13 Units
Run Line:    0 - 1 ; -1.00 Units
Over/Under:  0 - 0 ;  0.00 Units

Total:       1 - 3 ; -2.13 Units

2011 Season

Money Line:  12 - 4 ; 4.355 Units
Run Line:    1 - 5 ; -3.47 Units
Over/Under:  3 - 0 ;  1.54 Units

Total:       12 - 6 ; 2.425 Units

Yesterdays Plays

Money Line:  3 - 1 ;  1.095 Units
Run Line:    0 - 2 ; -1.00 Units
Over/Under:  1 - 0 ;  0.50 Units

Total:       4 - 3 ;  0.595 Units

Yesterday was ok in total, we had our next day in the black (thats 3/4 winning days now) and I am happy with the results...

Todays plays will follow later!

@Keano: no worries, I didnt tell anyone to follow my picks, I am just posting here to document my learning process and to discuss my picks with other people interested in this matter....

2011 Season

Money Line:  12 - 4 ; 4.355 Units
Run Line:    1 - 5 ; -3.47 Units
Over/Under:  3 - 0 ;  1.54 Units

Total:       16 - 9 ; 2.425 Units

Yesterdays Plays

Money Line:  3 - 1 ;  1.095 Units
Run Line:    0 - 2 ; -1.00 Units
Over/Under:  1 - 0 ;  0.50 Units

Total:       4 - 3 ;  0.595 Units

My total of the season was wrong again, I will learn this as well (I hope)...

Damn, covers is a B.I.T.C.H. today, third time I try to post my plays now...all picks for 0.5 Units and @ Matchbook

NYY +120; I have a line of -117 for the Stankees, taking the Home Opener into account, I think a +100 coinflip seems to be fair...

OAK +105...I have -118, Pitching works well so far...

COL -120...same missmatch as yesterday, I come up with a -178

HOU +109...again, a slight favorite with +money...I have -113...

PHI -102...Cliff Lee at almost even money...do I have to say more? No matter who you play, ITS a play...fyi, I have -127 here

SF (RL) +144...Sanchez in the Home Opener versus a STL team that sucks AND with Westbrook (ex, Cleveland, I know what I am talking about) on the mound...

NYM -138...highest juice so far in the season, but I am just too afraid to take the RL here...I have -186 for this matchup...

Good luck everyone

2011 Season

Money Line:  12 - 10 ; 1.255 Units
Run Line:    1 - 6 ; -3.97 Units
Over/Under:  3 - 0 ;  1.54 Units

Total:       16 - 16 ; -1.175 Units

Last Plays

Money Line:  0 - 6 ; -3.10 Units
Run Line:    0 - 1 ; -0.50 Units
Over/Under:  0 - 0 ;  0.00 Units

Total:       0 - 7 ; -3.6 Units

Tough day last friday...

Unfortunately, I dont find the ime right now to analyse and post plays on a regular basis...but I try my best to turn things around now...here are the picks for today:

COL +113

FLO@ATL U7 -108

OAK +107

TEX +124

TOR -105

Good Luck everybody

2011 Season

Money Line:  15 - 11 ; 2.355 Units
Run Line:    1 - 6 ; -3.97 Units
Over/Under:  4 - 0 ;  2.04 Units

Total:       20 - 17 ;  0.425 Units

Yesterdays Plays

Money Line:  3 - 1 ;  1.10 Units
Run Line:    0 - 0 ;  0.00 Units
Over/Under:  1 - 0 ;  0.50 Units

Total:       4 - 1 ;  1.6 Units

I hope I am back on track after that bad friday last week, now with a solid 4-1 and a little luck with OAK in the 9th and 10th inning...

Todays plays will follow later!

Today I dont have that many picks as a) some games dont have enough data and b) some games are just too close to the line...so here we go:

MIL@PIT I go with PIT and +104 at Matchbook for 0.5 Units...numbers give me a score of 4.77(PIT) to 3.96(MIL) which translates into a line of ~139

PHI@WAS Here I will take PHI for the first 5 Innings and/or Team Total over, both lines are not available yet, so I will post this play later, numbers just show me that PHI should score around 5.7 runs in the first 5 Innings...pick will depend on the lines though

BAL@NYY This should actually be a close game, I have it around 5.5(NYY) to 4.8(BAL) which gives NYY a 56,13% chance to win this game...this win% translates into a line of -128 for NYY...real line is much higher, so I take BAL with +182 at matchbook.

MIN/TB Over 9, neither line nor actual number is out yet, I have a final score of ~ 5.7-4.4 in this one, so I will go with the over up to 9.5...again, this pick will be final later on as the lines are available...

Good Luck everyone

PS: Next week my testing phase will be over, I will then settle up with my original Unit plays which is scaled from 1-4...

Here are the detailed plays outstanding:

PHI@WAS First 5 Innings PHI-0.5 -105 0.5 Units as well as

PHI Team Total Over 4 -110 for 0.5 Units and

MIN@TB Over 8.5 +104 at Matchbook

Good Luck Everyone

Hey Guys,

will update my record later, here are my picks for today really quick:

ATL -123

COL +119

TOR +122

CWS +128

KC +109

LAA +142

All for 0.5 Units and @ Matchbook

GL everyone