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Systems for NHL & NBA 2008-09 season

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Posted: #1
Hey guys,

I have realized something very important and something that has killed me for the years. Juice and betting without a system. Certainly I have had streaks but overall this type of sports betting has cost me.

I have found a couple systems I will implement this upcoming season for the NHL and NBA.

System
1)NHL - 3 or more game homestand chase. Bet one game one, if lost, double up on game 2, etc.
Filter: Must be top 16 teams in my mind that I have selected that will make the playoffs.
Must be at least 5-5 in last 10 games.

System
2) NHL - After two consecutive over games bet under, if push, don't chase.
Filter: Top 16 Defensive teams in my mind, (Ex. I don't expect NJD to make the playoffs this season, but they are still a great team for this system with marty in net)

System
3) NBA - Bet on road teams going on east coast or west coast road trips, buy 3 pts and chase up to 3 games.
*Some NBA teams can be really bad when going on a stretch of games and some teams are just bad in general.
Filter: Bet on top 16 teams (Playoff teams in your mind) only.
Must be at least 5-5 in last ten games.

System
4) NHL - Bet on home dogs 100-150, do not chase.
Filter: Home dog must be at least 5-5 in last ten.
Must have beaten opponent at least once in last 5 meetings.

I'm looking into another system with foxsheets however I haven't established a winning formula yet. These systems above have posted winning records for years.

I haven't played a system before and this is all new to me, but I am going to run these systems and will see a profit based on previous years. Can someone who has used similiar systems before give me some advice ?

I am imagining these systems will be boring, But it's better then losing money =).

Opinions on filters or adjusting the systems is encouraged.



 
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Posted: #2
Good info Locksmith and thanks for sharing!
I have played my fair share of systems and that's pretty much the only thing i bet. Mainly cuz i am not as knowledgeable as others in certain sports, i rely on systems to grind out small profits...plus, it helps to take away the emotions and any biases i may have.

Have you backtested these systems yet? and if so, what are the results???
I played an under system and it did not do too well...the two seasons prior were excellent. then last year, unders didn't do too well....mainly because the totals were set lower. Games that would've been set at 5.5 were set at 5 last season...so you have to decide when you push, do you still continue with your chase? or does it stop?

I thing to do, is if you have the stat sheets, for the systems you are planning to chase, find out what is the biggest drawdown and longest losing streak. this helps to give you an idea of a worst case scenario so you can prepare and prevent your bankroll from taking a big hit.
Just my own opinion, but for your systems, do you think it may be better to have set teams that you are chasing than to use your own judgment on the top 16 teams??
The problem with that is, teams can go on a hot streak and they maybe a bottom tier team, but after a winning streak, you may 'think' they are a top 16 team....but it is not definite...and your judgment may be clouded by your own bias.
Maybe try looking at last season's top 16 defensive/top home teams and chase those ?

Also, beware of high juice when betting on top teams playing on homestand....its is not uncommon to see teams like detroit at -240,-300 a lot. 
You should also think of stop losses...at what point in the chase will you decide to cut your losses???




 
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Posted: #3
Thanks for the reply. You bring up some very good points.

For Detroit, I would play -1 or reg time win, this would minimize the juice. For the home chase its a 3 game chase on 3 game or more homestands.

I totally agree with about streaks and the bottom team going on streaks. I'm trying to study and see if teams will lose all three games if they enter the homestand at at least 5-5 in the last ten. So far from quickly glancing I've found teams being swept 3 games when they have a below .500 record going into a homestand.

This is my first time using systems but I think the profits can be large contrary to your experience. One fellow on the covers went 69 units on this system last year. I believe losing 7 times. I think a few of those loses were teams entering a homestand with a .500 record in the last 10.

Another filter is top 16 teams, 8 teams that I believe will be in the playoffs this year, I would decide this this week. However the problem with that is, I think im missing out on profits from middle tier teams.

I really like your idea of top home teams from last season. Thats a good idea.


 
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Posted: #4
I thing to do, is if you have the stat sheets, for the systems you are planning to chase, find out what is the biggest drawdown and longest losing streak. this helps to give you an idea of a worst case scenario so you can prepare and prevent your bankroll from taking a big hit.

What do you mean by this?
 
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Posted: #5
sorry, i must've zoned out...cuz i had to reread it myself a few times..lol

I guess what i was trying to say is over the past few seasons, what is the longest losing streak, and if it is a chase, what is the largest amount you had for a single wager...just to give yourself an idea of the worse case scenario..

This is more of a guideline to set an appropriate unit size...if the largest amount you had to wager for the chase was say, 10 units, IF it loses, how much of your bankroll do you still want to have? 75%? 60%? 50%? Because no chase/system is perfect...and money management is vital to keeping bankroll and cutting losses.
Remember, these chases are no good if you can't keep yourself in the game.

Another thing is, for your 1st system with the homestand, a quick look at the schedule, you can already determine the number of home chases you will have. this is predetermined....so if you have a loss, another option is to take your loss on that chase and divide it by the number of remaining homestands you have and spread the loss evenly.

Will you be posting your picks/results in this thread??
I am looking forward to seeing how these will perform this upcoming season!
 
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Posted: #6
I'll try to post them.

There definitely is a disaster scenario. For ex. SJS loses at home twice at -200. The loses are already 400. Now for game three they are -200 again and you bet to win one unit which is 100 for me.I would have to risk 1000 to win 500, hence 1 unit after covering my loses. Now if it loses, I'm out 14 units, which is chase winners. My problem is I haven't selected enough teams to make a good profit on the system. After analyzing this I have decided to eliminate a few teams that I will not use for the homestand chase system.



These are teams I don't trust this year for many reasons. Either they have contract issues with there best players or they are just too soft to compete against the best teams even at home.


With statsheets, I'm looking to play only 5 star trends for one unit all season long, only ats or low juice in nhl. I've been tracking it and it's also profitable. I'm going to miss the emotional aspect of betting but fck that style of betting can cost a chap a lot of money, I rather winning and be boring then bet on emotion.

 
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Posted: #7
LA
STL
NASH
MINN
COLB
ATL
FLO
NYI

are the teams I will not be playing.
 
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Posted: #8
Will you be willing to post the results of these NHL systems on the NHL section of the forum?


 
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Posted: #9
I will try to post when I can.
 
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Posted: #10
hey locksmith, do you have any records and units won for each system??
 
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Posted: #11
I haven't played these systems in previous years. I know for the 2 game chase, its actually an error above.

The system works like this:

After an ot game, chase a team on the under for 2 games, if pushed continue to chase. End when under hits.

Last year the system hit 59 units on selected teams.

For the 3 game homestand, I don't have a records but here is the 3 game homestand from the mlb.


 
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Posted: #12
Single games (units for single is approx)

 
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Posted: #13
Its not coming up for some reason. I was going to post the mlb records,

I'll just some it up.

First game of the series in the mlb was 37.25 units

series chase was 77 units this season.
 
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Posted: #14
Solid numbers for a system . Looking forward to seeing how it does with hockey. Will be following your posts.
 
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Posted: #15
It's actually tomspeople system, Im going to run it with some filters. GIVE HIM THE CREDIT!

I found his record from last season.




 
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Posted: #16
NHL 3 game homestand chase - First game of series was 93-61

Last Season this was 154-7 (+69.01u)

I'm not able to copy and paste out of excel for some reason.....
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Locksmith20:

It's actually tomspeople system, Im going to run it with some filters. GIVE HIM THE CREDIT!

I found his record from last season.

 
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Posted: #18
nice work tomspeople
 
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Posted: #19
locksmith, just wanted to clarify....
for the under system....u are saying, after an OT game, so you would chase both teams involved in the OT game right?
And if you chase, do you chase until the under hits?
or if you chase for 2 games, and they are both overs, you stop?
 
 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Locksmith20:

I'll try to post them.

There definitely is a disaster scenario. For ex. SJS loses at home twice at -200. The loses are already 400. Now for game three they are -200 again and you bet to win one unit which is 100 for me.I would have to risk 1000 to win 500, hence 1 unit after covering my loses. Now if it loses, I'm out 14 units, which is chase winners. My problem is I haven't selected enough teams to make a good profit on the system. After analyzing this I have decided to eliminate a few teams that I will not use for the homestand chase system.



These are teams I don't trust this year for many reasons. Either they have contract issues with there best players or they are just too soft to compete against the best teams even at home.


With statsheets, I'm looking to play only 5 star trends for one unit all season long, only ats or low juice in nhl. I've been tracking it and it's also profitable. I'm going to miss the emotional aspect of betting but fck that style of betting can cost a chap a lot of money, I rather winning and be boring then bet on emotion.

I'm going to be fine tuning my systems tonight, but definately thinking of using a smaller unit for the 1st month to see how teams are playing. Especially while doing the chase system.  Off the top of my head I believe it was Dallas and NY Islanders who both went 0-3 in their first 3 game home series last year.  I am just being cautious, as some teams get off to a slow start, can you say Detroit Tigers.... If we get a good group of guys on here, who share ideas and strategies, we should all do well....

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by STEVEPERRY:

I'm going to be fine tuning my systems tonight, but definately thinking of using a smaller unit for the 1st month to see how teams are playing. Especially while doing the chase system.  Off the top of my head I believe it was Dallas and NY Islanders who both went 0-3 in their first 3 game home series last year.  I am just being cautious, as some teams get off to a slow start, can you say Detroit Tigers.... If we get a good group of guys on here, who share ideas and strategies, we should all do well....

I agree Steve, i really hope we get all come up with somethinh we can all profit from. did you do the home chase last season as well?

 
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Posted: #22
I am excited to see how this goes. 
 
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Posted: #23
I totally agree with taking it easy in the first month. Be selective, it's truely a personal choice which games you decide to play and which you don't. One of my filters on the home game chase is the team has to be at least 4-6 in the last ten games.

On the under chase. You chase both teams on the under after an ot game. If it pushes in game 2 chase to game 3 but don't chase anymore. Try to stay away from teams that post totals of 5. It's not a good # for this system, 5.5 is good, 6 is obviously great.


 
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Posted: #24
New season, new name, formerly STEVEPERRY, to many journey comments..lol  I did a total of all home series with 3 or more games.  I got 167 series.  What stood out to me was Colorado, Ottawa and Pittsburgh all have 8 game home series.  Anaheim, Ottawa, Florida and Phoenix all have at least one, 3 game home series in each month of the season Oct-Mar  I'm sure the players notice that, as there is nothing like sleeping in your own bed....
 
 
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Posted: #25

Ok here's the list of 167 series with at least 3 home games.  I did not include the games on Oct 4 or 5 since they are overseas and can't count as a teams home game.  It's pretty simple the first one is Pit 11 4g  So Pittsburgh on the 11th of October starts a 4 game home series... They are in order by date.  If you only want to play 4 game series or more, then just look for those... I'm not sure how this will post will turn out, it's pretty long....

October

Team - Date - #Games

Pit 11 4g

Ott 11 4g

Flo 11 3g

TB 11 3g

Cal 11 3g

LA 12 4g

NYr 13 3g

Atl 14 3g

Mon 15 5g

Ana 15 5g

StL 16 7g

Nas 18 3g

Chi 19 3g

NYi 23 3g

Min 23 3g

Pho 23 3g

Buf 27 3g

LA 27 7g

NJ 29 4g

Ana 29 3g

November

Team - Date - #Games

Bos 1 3g

Van 2 6g

Chi 3 5g

SJ 4 3g

Ana 5 6g

Col 5 4g

Was 6 3g

Car 7 3g

Pit 13 3g

NYr 15 3g

NJ 15 3g

Car 16 4g

Tor 17 3g

TB 18 4g

Ott 20 3g

Min 20 5g

Buf 21 4g

Flo 24 3g

Pho 28 4g

Mon 29 7g

Car 30 4g

December

Team - Date - #Games

Det 1 4g

Min 1 4g

SJ 2 5g

Ott 3 3g

StL 5 3g

Dal 5 3g

Col 7 3g

Phi 9 4g

NJ 10 3g

Edm 11 3g

LA 11 4g

Bos 13 3g

Van 14 4g

Det 15 4g

Mon 18 3g

Atl 18 3g

Cal 19 5g

NJ 19 4g

Flo 21 3g

NYr 23 3g

Col 23 3g

Van 26 3g

Car 27 3g

StL 27 3g

Dal 27 3g

Pho 27 3g

Tor 30 4g

Ana 31 4g

January

Team - Date - #Games

Bos 1 6g

Was 1 4g

Nas 1 5g

Edm 3 5g

Det 6 3g

Cal 6 3g

Pho 6 3g

Phi 8 3g

Flo 8 3g

LA 8 4g

Van 9 5g

Ana 9 3g

Col 10 3g

Chi 11 3g

Dal 12 3g

NYi 13 5g

Min 13 3g

SJ 13 3g

Pit 14 5g

TB 15 5g

Col 16 8g

Ott 17 3g

Edm 18 6g

Flo 19 4g

Cal 21 3g

Bos 27 3g

Col 27 4g

Van 28 4g

SJ 29 3g

Mon 31 3g

February

Team - Date - #Games

Det 2 3g

Ott 3 3g

Pit 4 4g

Min 4 4g

StL 5 3g

Cal 5 3g

Dal 6 4g

NJ 7 5g

TB 7 6g

Col 7 3g

Nas 10 4g

Buf 11 3g

Ana 11 3g

LA 12 3g

Pho 12 4g

Flo 13 5g

Tor 14 4g

Min 14 3g

Det 15 3g

SJ 17 3g

Was 18 5g

Dal 19 6g

Edm 21 4g

Bos 24 6g

Ott 24 8g

Nas 24 5g

Cal 24 3g

NJ 26 3g

NYi 26 6g

Chi 27 3g

Van 27 3g

Atl 28 4g

March

Team - Date - #Games

Was 1 4g

TB 3 3g

Phi 5 5g

LA 5 3g

Ana 6 5g

Det 7 3g

Chi 8 4g

Mon 10 4g

Tor 10 3g

StL 10 4g

Edm 12 3g

Van 13 4g

Pit 14 8g

Pho 14 4g

Flo 14 5g

Ott 17 3g

TB 17 4g

Cal 18 3g

Car 18 3g

SJ 19 3g

Chi 20 5g

NYr 21 3g

Mon 21 5g

Nas 24 3g

StL 24 3g

Dal 24 3g

Atl 26 3g

Was 27 4g

Det 27 4g

Edm 29 6g

Bos 31 3g

Flo 31 3g

April

Team - Date - #Games

Car 2 4g

Van 5 3g

Atl 7 3g

Col 9 3g

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