Systems for NHL & NBA 2008-09 season

Think about this one.  You pick a 5 game sequence then choose a team and bet on it.  The sequence can be anything win=W  lose=L  so it could be W,W,L,W,L   or  L,W,L,L,W  Just chase till you win.....  In W,W,L,W,L  you would bet to win, if you lose then next game bet to win, if they lose, next game take the other team to win and so on.... 

If you have a pre-determined Win/Lose betting sequence of 5 steps (say W, L, L, W, W) what are the chances that you will be right on all 5 bets. The answer is 50% (or 1/2) multiplied 5 times by itself, or 1 in 32.

That means that if you tell yourself that for the next 5 bets you will be betting W, L, L, W, W regardless of the outcomes of the games, there is 1/32 probability that you will be hitting all your bets right. This is a very low probability.

However, the opposite is also true, that the probability of hitting all your 5 bets wrong is also 1 in 32. That means, that if you use a pre-determined sequence of W, L, L, W, W, by using a 5 step Martingale betting method, you have a 31/32 or 97% chance that one of the 5 bets will hit right. Now this is a very high probability.

One important thing that you should know is that it is not unlikely to get the exact opposite pattern: L, W, W, L, L even if it will happen 3% of the time. The fact is, if you bet your pattern (W, L, L, W, W) continuously, statistically you should hit the opposite pattern within the next 32 bets. The result would be the lost of all your winnings. We don’t want this to happen.

So, the strategy will be to change the pattern after every winning sequence. This way you will be attacking the next 5 bets, with an equal probability of 97% winning chances from session to session.

Everyone talks about chasing a home team on a homestand. How about fading a roadtrip? Last year in the NBA teams went on a roadtrip of 4 games or more 77 times They covered every game on the roadtrip twice. Chasing this, your record was 75-2. Here is the breakdown:

 

#of games    series    won on gm 1    gm2   gm3  gm 4 gm 5  

    

     4              37            17               11      6        2

     5              25            13                6       3        1      1

     6               6              6                 2       1

     7              4              3                 0       1

     9               2              1                  0      0         0     1

 

the 2 series that were lost were both early in the year...both times it was an undervalued Orlando team that went undefeated on the roadtrips...once on a 4 game trip, and once on a 5. Might try this one. 40 out of 77 times, the series was over after game 1.