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Systems for NHL & NBA 2008-09 season

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Cool. That makes it easier to follow. Thx.
 
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Posted: #27
I am not betting on any games this weekend, as they are a coin flip being overseas and all.  Besides the home chase system I am also looking at
 
1) Home dogs ATS last year hit 67%
 
2) The 2 best home favs ML parlay
 
3) A end of regualtion no OT bet.  Depends on the lines but since only 19% of NHL games went to OT last year, and European is about 18% this year....This should hit over 80% but you have to bet small...
 
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Posted: #28
This is great.  Are you planning on using the 5-5 in their last 10 filter?  If a team enters the home stand at 4-6 it's a no play for that series? 
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by SRTZEE:

I am not betting on any games this weekend, as they are a coin flip being overseas and all.  Besides the home chase system I am also looking at
 
1) Home dogs ATS last year hit 67%
 
2) The 2 best home favs ML parlay
 
3) A end of regualtion no OT bet.  Depends on the lines but since only 19% of NHL games went to OT last year, and European is about 18% this year....This should hit over 80% but you have to bet small...


Hey, does ATS in hockey just mean -1.5 for fave and +1.5 for dog?
If so, does that mean home dogs lose by 1 or win SU  67% of the time?  And if that's true, a lot of times the line for +1.5 means a ton of juice. Does 67% cut it ?
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:

This is great.  Are you planning on using the 5-5 in their last 10 filter?  If a team enters the home stand at 4-6 it's a no play for that series? 
 
Still deciding on this.  If the team won the first 5 but lost the last 5 would you still bet on them?  It makes it through the filter... I would use my baccarat rules and never bet against a streak.  We got a week to figure it out, even longer since I'm betting small till we see how the season is unfolding...
 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by ethancraft50:



Hey, does ATS in hockey just mean -1.5 for fave and +1.5 for dog?
If so, does that mean home dogs lose by 1 or win SU  67% of the time?  And if that's true, a lot of times the line for +1.5 means a ton of juice. Does 67% cut it ?

Yes your right about ATS.  Yes it was 67% of the time according to covers for last season, (NHL then click league trends, the only problem is they switched league trends to this season today and I can't find how to get back to last years stats.  I just emailed them about it.) I don't think it does cut it, tomorrows games for +1.5 are -262 and -275 at my book.  But since 2 out of 3 cover I was thinking of betting smaller and chasing on a loss.  Also I would only bet on the home dogs +1.5 if they had a ML of +100 to +170

 
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Posted: #32
Ok trying this, no OT bet.  You place 2 bets on the same game, 1 ATS the other ML.  Look for games with both sides +  As long as it doesn't go to OT you win.  And since less then 20% go to OT, we'll see what happens.  I bet small and on every game that has + on both bets.  There are 24 games tomorrow that meet the criteria, NHL and international hockey.  So 24(games) X 2(bets per game) X 1.50(amount I put on each bet) =$72
 
The NHL bet looks like this

Straight Bet
Selection  1:

NHL Regulation Time (see rules), Hockey
Tampa Bay Lightning 5-October-2008 9:00 AM PST
Money Line for Game +108
Risking 1.50 to Win 1.62 CAD

Selection  2:
NHL Regulation Time (see rules), Hockey
New York Rangers 5-October-2008 9:00 AM PST
Spread -0.5 for Game +142
Risking 1.50 to Win 2.13 CAD

2 Selections
Risking 3.00 to Win 3.75 CAD
 
So you can see if you bet say $100 on each bet in the above example you would win either $8 or $42 profit.  But if the game went to OT you would lose $200.  To win that $200 back would take a while, so you have to bet small.... I'll post results tomorrow...
 
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Posted: #33
SRTZEE, you have the same line as me so Im going to assume you use the same book.
For the Tampa Bay bet, why not play them on the ML with OT included, that way if it goes to OT, you still have a chance of winning. The line for that is +106 so your only losing 2 cents with an added chance of winning.
 
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Posted: #34
Thank you Tomspeople for pointing that out, I didn't even notice that.  I compare lines between 2 books pinny and 365.  I only used pinny for all these bets as my trial.  You see this is what I'm talking about, a good group of guys sharing info, ideas, pointing things out.  We will all benefit....
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by SRTZEE:

So you can see if you bet say $100 on each bet in the above example you would win either $8 or $42 profit.  But if the game went to OT you would lose $200.  To win that $200 back would take a while, so you have to bet small.... I'll post results tomorrow...

I'm confused.  A $100 bet on the +108 line would give you $108 profit, not $8.  And $100 on the +142 line would give you $142  profit instead of $42.  I apologize if I misread, I am severely hungover. 

 
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Posted: #36
Seahawks you would be placing 2 bets on the same game, so you could only win 1 and lose the other.
 
$100 bet at +108
$100 bet at +142
 
Say you win the +108 you would have $108 profit minus the $100 for the +142 bet, that leaves you with $8 profit.  So obvioulsy you would want the +142 bet to come in, we'll win the big ones sometimes and sometimes we'll win the small ones... I'll post my trial results when all the games are done today....
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by SRTZEE:

Seahawks you would be placing 2 bets on the same game, so you could only win 1 and lose the other.
 
$100 bet at +108
$100 bet at +142
 
Say you win the +108 you would have $108 profit minus the $100 for the +142 bet, that leaves you with $8 profit.  So obvioulsy you would want the +142 bet to come in, we'll win the big ones sometimes and sometimes we'll win the small ones... I'll post my trial results when all the games are done today....

I'm an idiot, thanks SRTZEE.  Obviously I misread your bets.  Thanks again, I'm ready for a winning hockey system, this looks great.

 
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Posted: #38
Trial results.  So I had $72 in bets, for 24 games  $1.50 each bet.  I had 6 bets cancelled which gave me back $9, so I had $63 out on the table.  I took in $69.54 in winning bets, so a profit of $6.54.  I wasn't expecting anything huge since it was only $1.50 a bet, so that is good.
 
The cancelled bets were ML bets on games that went to OT, then went to penalty shots.  Fuchse Duisburg won with the penalty shots, but I guess they don't consider it a win and just cancel the bet and refund it.
Wager Type: Moneyline
Wager Status: Cancelled
Risk/To Win Amount: 1.50 / 2.43 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 4-October-2008
Time Accepted: 8:43:40 PM (Pacific)
Amount Refunded: 1.50
Sport/Period: Germany - DEL Hockey / Game
Teams: Füchse Duisburg vs Frankfurt Lions
Game Date 5-October-2008
Wager Line:  Füchse Duisburg +162

There are some games tomorrow, so I'll do another trial and bet a little bigger and see what happens...

 

 
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Posted: #39
Hi, I'm new to the board, but I like this home chase system.  I have a list of teams I want to play, any advise? Here is the list, should I take a few out, add a couple more?  Thanks in advance....

Pit, Ott, Cal, NYr, Mon, Ana, Chi, NJ, Bos, Van, SJ, Was, Car, Det, Dal, Phi, Edm

 

 
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Posted: #40
SR

Your bringing a wealth of knowledge to this thread. Good work and Thanks for posting the home stands.

Personally, I'm not really interested in playing NO o.t game system, the return isn't great enough for me.

I wrote this weekend off in europe as well, however mind you the under system would have been 1-0 thus far.

I will post my final systems in a few days as I am still tinkering with the filters.

I think it's important to be selective and choose teams that you feel will do well under certain systems. Ex. Wilson in toronto will be a very defensive oriented coach. I like the leafs to play unders after an O.T. game. You know this from understanding hockey and just simply watching it so often. Wilson will emphasize defence in the game after the o.t. For whichever case, it's either they gave up a late goal to push it to o.t. or scored late and battled back to push o.t. Either way Defense will be of an issue for that system. Filtering which teams you will use is vital. I said this above... I'm going to stay away from teams that attract the 5 O/U.

Adding to you O.T. system, If you have the time, let us know what the results are for matchup in non divionsal games. Divisional games tend to be tighter and have a greater probability of going to the 4th peroid.

Let us know...


Cheers
 
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Posted: #41
Everyone talks about chasing a home team on a homestand. How about fading a roadtrip? Last year in the NBA teams went on a roadtrip of 4 games or more 77 times They covered every game on the roadtrip twice. Chasing this, your record was 75-2. Here is the breakdown:
 
#of games    series    won on gm 1    gm2   gm3  gm 4 gm 5  
    
     4              37            17               11      6        2
     5              25            13                6       3        1      1
     6               6              6                 2       1
     7              4              3                 0       1
     9               2              1                  0      0         0     1
 
the 2 series that were lost were both early in the year...both times it was an undervalued Orlando team that went undefeated on the roadtrips...once on a 4 game trip, and once on a 5. Might try this one. 40 out of 77 times, the series was over after game 1.
 
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Posted: #42
Jeff, are those statistics ATS or SU?
 
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Posted: #43

Alright I just checked since you already said the team :P

So since they are ATS, on the 4 game loss, you lost 18.45units and on the 5 game loss, you lost 39.84units.

Since you had 75 wins: 75 - 39.84-  18.45 = 16.71u

So a season profit of 16.71units

 
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Posted: #44
Yeah Tom, talkin ATS. Thinking of going back a couple more seasons and/or other money managing systems. I don't like chasing more than 4 games when doubling up...and thanks for finishing my research (year end totals) !
 
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Posted: #45
Ok only 3 games today, $3 on each team, so $18 total.  One bet went to penalty shots again and got cancelled so got $3 back.  So $15 on the table, I took in $14.25 so lost .75 for the day.  Lots of games tomorrow, so will try again....
 
Locksmith, I agree with you about the return not being that big.  Just trying it out see what happens.  No research needed so if I'm up for the week all for fun....
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by jeff3420:

Everyone talks about chasing a home team on a homestand. How about fading a roadtrip? Last year in the NBA teams went on a roadtrip of 4 games or more 77 times They covered every game on the roadtrip twice. Chasing this, your record was 75-2. Here is the breakdown:
 
#of games    series    won on gm 1    gm2   gm3  gm 4 gm 5  
    
     4              37            17               11      6        2
     5              25            13                6       3        1      1
     6               6              6                 2       1
     7              4              3                 0       1
     9               2              1                  0      0         0     1
 
the 2 series that were lost were both early in the year...both times it was an undervalued Orlando team that went undefeated on the roadtrips...once on a 4 game trip, and once on a 5. Might try this one. 40 out of 77 times, the series was over after game 1.

Alright well look at a couple of chase options. Remember that this is assuming a -110 line.

1 game chase: 40 - 37 (-0.70u)
2 game chase: 59 - 18 (-2.56u)
3 game chase: 70 - 7 (+12.18u)
4 game chase: 73 - 4 (-0.80u)
5 game chase: 75 - 2 (-4.68u)

You might want to check older seasons too.

 
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Posted: #47
SRTZEE    still confused on how u pick your teams and how u bet them?  could u bet 2 teams on the same bet or just 1?
 
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Posted: #48
Desertfx, just look for games that have a +, -.5 spread and then the other team has a + 1?? for the moneyline.
 
Tue 10/7 9873 MVD Moscow Region -0.5 +111 -157 OVER 4.5 -124 
08:30 AM 9874 Lada Togliatti +0.5 -121  +147 

 

So I'd bet $2 on MVD -.5 +111 and then I'd put $2 on Lada +147 ML.  Today there are 20 games so I have $80 in bets, post results later.  I think it's going to do well when NHL starts up..

 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by SRTZEE:

Desertfx, just look for games that have a +, -.5 spread and then the other team has a + 1?? for the moneyline.
 
Tue 10/7 9873 MVD Moscow Region -0.5 +111 -157 OVER 4.5 -124 
08:30 AM 9874 Lada Togliatti +0.5 -121  +147 

 

So I'd bet $2 on MVD -.5 +111 and then I'd put $2 on Lada +147 ML.  Today there are 20 games so I have $80 in bets, post results later.  I think it's going to do well when NHL starts up..

what sport is this?

 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by nghia1973:

what sport is this?

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