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Testing new system in NBA

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Posted: #1
What you do is the take the average points per game since the beginning of the season of the two teams and add them up for the two teams and check the total and if the number is low or higher then the total play it, yesterday on December 7 the following games 4-0 just testing it longer
average points this season

Detroit   95.7   Total=199 so go under
New York 104    O/U is 207

Final
Detroit       92
New York 104          WIN
average points this season
Portland   97.7 total 194.8 so go over
Toronto    97.1  O/U is 191

Final
Portland 98 total=195
Toronto   97     over 191    WIN
average points this season

Boston 100.2 over 198.5 so go over
Indiana 100  O/U is 198.5

Final O.T.
Boston 122  Regulation went over 198.5
Indiana 117 over 198.5 WIN

average points this season
Milwaukee 95.2 total points 203 so go under
LA Lakers  108.4 O/U 210
Final
Milwaukee 92
LA Lakers 105  under 210             Win
 
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Posted: #2
Tracking my NBA system average points just testing 4-0 so far
Charlotte 89.6         Over
Miami 99.1         O/U      186.5

Houston 96.6        Under
Memphis 93.2   O/U 192

Golden State  105.4
Oklahoma City 92       No O/U

Orlando    99.6     Under
LA Clippers 92    O/U 193.5
Will update on December  8 with O/U
Just tracking this
 
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Posted: #3
Where is the best place to find historical scores?? I'd like to work this system too but want to know where I can find out the scores of previous games. Any help would be appreciated. Also is there a site where I can go back and see what the spreads were on a game that has already taken place?? For example lets say I wanted to see what the spread was on a game that took place last week is there such a site?
 
thanks a million$$ guys.
 
Mike
 
 
 
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Posted: #4
Mike - Are you referring to NBA scores and spreads? If so, check out THIS site  ( url is = > https://www.wagertracker.com/Odds.aspx?date=12/7/2008&sport=NBA ) .

It has all the information you need. The score of each game, the spread, and even the total at which the game was set (with the odds for the under and over). ML odds are also shown for each game.

The link I put in this post goes directly to yesterday's games in the NBA. But, when you are interested in previous games, all you need to do is either go back to the previous date by clicking on the link on the page or even better, go directly in the address bar of your browser and change the date (highlighted above in the link) to whatever date you are interested in. It even has all sports.

Hope this helps.
 
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Posted: #5
are you continuing the system in this thread, i am curious to see your next few days . . .
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by mwgriffin:

are you continuing the system in this thread, i am curious to see your next few days . . .

yes mwgrfffin I will
 
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Posted: #7
Tracking my NBA system average points just testing 4-0 so farl Update on December  8 with O/U
Charlotte 89.6         Over
Miami 99.1         O/U      186.5

Houston 96.6        Under
Memphis 93.2   O/U 192

Golden State  105.4  Under
Oklahoma City 92      217  O/U

Orlando    99.6     Under
LA Clippers 92    O/U 193.5

Just tracking this see how it turns out, also watch for line changes on the O/U
 
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Posted: #8
The line just crept down to 190 on Houston/ Memphis and GS/OKC went up to 219 big factors here still be under for Houston/Memphis still under for GS/OKC but we need to factor in the line changes. Once again just testing this approach.
 
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Posted: #9
When you say ppg are you meaning offensive?
 
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Posted: #10
C'mon dude. Obviously vegas already has this situation in mind when they make the lines. If you do happen to be successful for now, more power to you. At the end of the day I'm sure would want to win long term and a system like will even out. It will not be profitable over the long term because the oddsmakers will adjust in do time.

With all do respect man but becareful using a system with just those parameters. Hey if you backtested it several years back and its proven to be successful, then I stand corrected. My bad, but in general there's more to capping then just a simple evaluation like that. Good idea though. For me personally simple strategies like this work good in baseball in the long term because of the
law of averages.

Good luck
 
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Posted: #11
MontanaMax - Why is it that everyone assumes every system is a magic formula that's gonna open the vault to the book's bank account. Of course, Vegas takes this into account when the totals comes out. It would be naive to think that any system can work long term. But, if someone picks his spot right like expertcapper is doing right now, this can work out to be pretty nice.
 
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Posted: #12
I think we should keep tracking this system. If it hits better than 60% you could spot 1-2 units nightly and come out smelling like a rose. Looks like it's going to be better than 60% way better
 
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Posted: #13
Day 2           3 wins 1 loss       Season=  7 wins 1 loss not bad actually its pretty good, and yes I am sure it will balance out but right now I am only testing. Its very interesting to me to watch these kinds of trends.
Yes heaven-cent yes its offensive

C'mon dude. Obviously vegas already has this situation in mind when they make the lines. If you do happen to be successful for now, more power to you. At the end of the day I'm sure would want to win long term and a system like will even out. It will not be profitable over the long term because the oddsmakers will adjust in do time.

With all do respect man but becareful using a system with just those parameters. Hey if you backtested it several years back and its proven to be successful, then I stand corrected. My bad, but in general there's more to capping then just a simple evaluation like that. Good idea though. For me personally simple strategies like this work good in baseball in the long term because of the
law of averages.
MY Response
Ok, first why you have to put down a system when all I am doing is testing, I don't see you come in here and test. Second of all its a free country and people can do what they want, third if you don't like it just leave I do not care all I am doing is helping others OK
 
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Posted: #14
I am posting the games tomorrow
SHHHH somebody might adjust the lines OH MY GOD GET A LIFE
 
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Posted: #15
excap,
great job, watched last two days, nice work
played over miami
keep it up 
 
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Posted: #16
Im all for testing, that is what this section is for. Keep it coming we can play them if we want. 
 
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Posted: #17
Testing is ok, it's the only way to ever find something that'll work for you. Excap could be starting the journey to being onto something. It will take a little more in-depth analysis, but he's good to roll w/ it. 

I have to disagree, the best NBA systems out there are the ones many people don't know about. I've used a few and still do and they've made me nice money. I always play them out here in Vegas. Unfortunately, I know you can't post any links in here

GL on this guys
 
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Posted: #18
Thanks r8drlife, its a lot harder thank you think, and yes Saints, like Obama said Share the wealth. What are your best systems in NBA, share it with all us, if they had made you money. Its the NBA East coast to west coast isn't it. I think Saints you can post the links in here so don't be shy.
 
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Posted: #19
ex,
are you going to post today??????lets make some 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by r8drlife:

ex,
are you going to post today??????lets make some 


Here are all plays for today. Wait for Exert to come in here to say if he agrees with all the plays. Could be different considering line movement and a personal feeling about a play.

Toronto  =   97.1                play OVER
Cleveland  =  103.5          O/U 194

Detroit  =  95.7                   play UNDER
Washington  =  98.2         O/U    194.5

New York  =  104                 play UNDER
Chicago  =  98.5                  O/U    215

Atlanta  =  98.6                   play OVER
Houston  =  96.6                  O/U    193

Milwaukee =  95.2                 play UNDER
Phoenix  =  100.2               O/U    204.5

Orlando =  99.4                 play OVER
Portland  =  97.7             O/U    187.5

Still 3 games to add to this card once the total is set.Hopefully, Vegas won't come here and read about this revolutionary system that is gonna wipe them out .
 
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Posted: #21
Yes thanks eli for tat information, I have been sleeping quite late lately, but here are all the games and what should be played according to my system. remember this is a test
All games December 9

Toronto  =   97.1                play OVER
Cleveland  =  103.5          O/U 194

Detroit  =  95.7                   play UNDER
Washington  =  98.2         O/U    194.5

New York  =  104                 play UNDER
Chicago  =  98.5                  O/U    215

Atlanta  =  98.6                   play OVER
Houston  =  96.6                  O/U    193

Milwaukee =  95.2                 play UNDER
Phoenix  =  100.2               O/U    204.5

Orlando =  99.4                 play OVER
Portland  =  97.7             O/U    187.5

LA Lakers 108.4                 play UNDER
LA Clippers    92.5              O/U 214

SA    95.1                        play OVER
Dallas 100.2                        O/U 189

Utah       100.2                  play Under
Minnesota      95.2              O/U 197

Good luck and this is only a test, play at your own risk guys

 
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Posted: #22
Anybody have any thoughts or ideas to improve this? It is much appreciated !!!!!
 
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Posted: #23
VEGAS FORMULA FOR O/U IN NBA! LEAGUE AVG. IS 196 PTS. PER GAME. COMPARE BOTH TEAMS AVG. PTS. PER GAME TO THIS NUMBER[196] ADD THE 2 DIFFERENCES TO 196 AND THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE O/U OPENING LINE.EXAMPLE TODAY: BULLS AVG 199.5 PER GAME,KNICKS AVG.211.5. BULLS ARE 3.5 ABOVE 196,KNICKS ARE15.5 ABOVE. 3.5+15.5=19.196+19=215 WHICH IS CLOSE TO OPENING LINE! THIS FORMULA WILL BE WITHIN 0-4 PTS.{UNLESS INJURY'S ETC.] BET THE GAMES THAT ARE OFF THE MOST!
 
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Posted: #24
I actually had a little luck with a system like this last year. I took the avgs of offense + defense and divided that by two.
 
For example:
 
Cle points scored + Tor points scored 103.5 + 97.1 = 200.6
Cle points allowed + Tor points allowed 90.2 + 102.1 = 192.3
 
200.6 + 192.3 = 392.9
392.9 / 2 = 196.45
 
196.45 would be my number.
 
 
I remember the system did well at the beginning of the season and not so well as the season went on...
 
Good luck and thanks for reminding me to play this strategy!
 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by jonnymega:

 
I remember the system did well at the beginning of the season and not so well as the season went on...
 


That's basically how all systems should be advertised. Books will adjust to almost all trends that develop during the season. Optimizing also means knowing when to jump off the system train before it crashes.

Sometimes,  it pays off to keep things simple but your variation looks as interesting. Let's see how the NBA treats systems.
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