Capper, you say top plays for Jan 15 was 3-0, however the Cavs game was a loss, total was 195. Should be 2-1.
What is the magic number, as to when to reverse? Is it 10? Cause it always seems at least a 10 point differential between the avg. points and the o/u line. There never seems to be a difference of 5 or 6 points. It always is a point or two, or ten or more. Thanks.
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Capper, you say top plays for Jan 15 was 3-0, however the Cavs game was a loss, total was 195. Should be 2-1.
What is the magic number, as to when to reverse? Is it 10? Cause it always seems at least a 10 point differential between the avg. points and the o/u line. There never seems to be a difference of 5 or 6 points. It always is a point or two, or ten or more. Thanks.
I think I will try this system b/c I tried to analyze injuries and other important factors in the game and it didn't work! This is not easy!(duh, otherwise we all would be rich like Madoff!)
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I think I will try this system b/c I tried to analyze injuries and other important factors in the game and it didn't work! This is not easy!(duh, otherwise we all would be rich like Madoff!)
For example. On average the Nets allow shots within x amount of seconds and shoot within y amount of seconds. The raptors allow shots within x amount of seconds and shoot within y amount of seconds. If they combine to shoot z percentage what would the score be.
Z = league shooting percentage, normally around 44 or 45%.
Nets X + Raptors y /2 =
Nets Y + Raptors x /2 =
Play any number that is 5 or more off.
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For example. On average the Nets allow shots within x amount of seconds and shoot within y amount of seconds. The raptors allow shots within x amount of seconds and shoot within y amount of seconds. If they combine to shoot z percentage what would the score be.
Z = league shooting percentage, normally around 44 or 45%.
easy can you explain what your talking about please?
As you can probably understand, I don't want to give away my system to everyone on covers but since you posted a thread trying to help people I will give you mine.
email me at pooch.paradise@hotmail.com
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Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:
easy can you explain what your talking about please?
As you can probably understand, I don't want to give away my system to everyone on covers but since you posted a thread trying to help people I will give you mine.
I think that field goal attempts per game would be similar to how many seconds per shots. I have been kicking around an O/U and or pointspread system but haven't really had a chance to test it. It would be something like this:
shots per game offense team A + shots per game defense team B/2
Take that number and mutiply it by the adjusted field goal %.(Adjusted field goal% can be found on ESPN website. It takes into account 3 point field goals)
Take that number and multiply by 2
Free throw attempts offense team A + free throw attempts defense team B/2 * team A free throw percentage
Add the two numbers for team A projected score. Do same for B
Example
Lakers at Cleveland
LAKERS = 84.2+77.6=161.8/2=80.9
.46+.52/2=.48
80.9*.48=38.8*2=77.6
27.4+24.1/2=25.75 *.769=19.8
80.9+19.8=100.7
CLEVELAND = 78.2+84.2=162.4/2=81.2
.53+.49/2=.51
81.2*.51=41.4*2=82.8
25+23/2=24*.7542=18.1
82.8+18.1=100.9
LAKERS 100.7
CAVS 100.9
In this example Lakers and under would have been the bet and would have won. Again haven't tested this system at all yet. All stats I got from ESPN.
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I think that field goal attempts per game would be similar to how many seconds per shots. I have been kicking around an O/U and or pointspread system but haven't really had a chance to test it. It would be something like this:
shots per game offense team A + shots per game defense team B/2
Take that number and mutiply it by the adjusted field goal %.(Adjusted field goal% can be found on ESPN website. It takes into account 3 point field goals)
Take that number and multiply by 2
Free throw attempts offense team A + free throw attempts defense team B/2 * team A free throw percentage
Add the two numbers for team A projected score. Do same for B
Example
Lakers at Cleveland
LAKERS = 84.2+77.6=161.8/2=80.9
.46+.52/2=.48
80.9*.48=38.8*2=77.6
27.4+24.1/2=25.75 *.769=19.8
80.9+19.8=100.7
CLEVELAND = 78.2+84.2=162.4/2=81.2
.53+.49/2=.51
81.2*.51=41.4*2=82.8
25+23/2=24*.7542=18.1
82.8+18.1=100.9
LAKERS 100.7
CAVS 100.9
In this example Lakers and under would have been the bet and would have won. Again haven't tested this system at all yet. All stats I got from ESPN.
Sorry you don't like it chi 23 but I am going to put in a spreadsheet and see how it works. It will make the math much easier. Still might not be worth a damn but I think it is still interesting to give a try.
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Sorry you don't like it chi 23 but I am going to put in a spreadsheet and see how it works. It will make the math much easier. Still might not be worth a damn but I think it is still interesting to give a try.
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