All Forums | Systems & Strategies

TIPS FOR GETTING HALF TIME 70% WINS RATIO

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 20859
Posts: 134
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 553
Posted: #26
last week all underdogs won so wait until all the favorites win.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 3302
Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by XhuegoX:

thanks for sharing bro! i just called my boss and told him to fuck off i quit!

we're all gonna be rich

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2005
Posts: 6890
Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by yncibrc:

I learned this theory from an old gentleman from Ceasar a long time ago.  Here is the main reason behind the add 6.  The teaser bet is a sucker bet.  If you check the point  of most the game, it's only  cover 1 way.  Therefore he notice that in the first half if the favorite doesn't cover the teaser bet 70% they don't cover the 2nd half.  If you check the monday night game from the beginning of the season until now it's 100%.  This system also work for over and under but it's a little more complicated to explain.  Here is another tip if you like to bet full game, just ask yourself this question can team X beat team Y point spread + 6 in the first half.

Example this coming sunday
can SF beat Raiders by 6.5+6=12.5(13) in the first half?

If you apply this theory ,then BELIEVE  Fav team can beat the point spread in the 1st Half + 6 more pts ...then why bother bet Full game ( chance of back door cover ) JUST WAGER 1st HALF ONLY !!!

Another word : TAKE ALL FAV in the 1st Half - when the FG  Fav by 7 or less ...70% + winner(S)

 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2002
Posts: 67006
Posted: #29
Your theory worked great last week because a ton of underdogs covered.  It may even be doing well so far this season.  But I will bet extremely large $$$ that you cannot successfully backtest your theory to a 70% success rate (or anywhere close) over a minimum of a 5 year period against an accurate database.  Guaranteed.

And your notion that most full games don't fall within 6 points of the spread either way is bullshit too, besides the fact that it doesn't necessarily correlate to your 2nd half bets.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 561
Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by XhuegoX:

thanks for sharing bro! i just called my boss and told him to fuck off i quit!

we're all gonna be rich






LMAO
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 238
Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by depeche2:

Your theory worked great last week because a ton of underdogs covered.  It may even be doing well so far this season.  But I will bet extremely large $$$ that you cannot successfully backtest your theory to a 70% success rate (or anywhere close) over a minimum of a 5 year period against an accurate database.  Guaranteed.

And your notion that most full games don't fall within 6 points of the spread either way is bullshit too, besides the fact that it doesn't necessarily correlate to your 2nd half bets.

please check last week game and see how many game fall within the teaser 6 point.

out of 13 games only 2 indy -6.5 win by 10 and jets -4.5 win by 9 the rest of the 11 game the teaser point won't help you to win the game.  My point is if the favorite cover the spread they will cover the teaser point.  Rarely, you can play teaser favorite and teaser dog in the same game and win both.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59963
Posted: #32

Quote Originally Posted by yncibrc:


please check last week game and see how many game fall within the teaser 6 point.

out of 13 games only 2 indy -6.5 win by 10 and jets -4.5 win by 9 the rest of the 11 game the teaser point won't help you to win the game.  My point is if the favorite cover the spread they will cover the teaser point.  Rarely, you can play teaser favorite and teaser dog in the same game and win both.

He posts about a longterm sample size like 5 years, you retort with "look at last week".

Unreal.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 277
Posted: #33
It may work for couple weeks but i don't think it will work for the rest of this season.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 238
Posted: #34
[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack]

He posts about a longterm sample size like 5 years, you retort with "look at last week".

Unreal.

why do I have to go back 5 years.  If you ask me to go back 5 weeks then you can check it yourself.  Either you believe it or not I don't gain 1 cent.  I just want to share it with others so if it's help to make a good educated pick then more power to you.


Wager Type:Spread (or run line)
Wager Status:Win
Risk / To Win Amount:420.00 / 400.00 (USD)    Accepted 10/9/2010 9:34 PM - EST
Won:   400.00
Amount Paid:   400.00
 
Sport / Period:NCAA Football   /  2nd Half
Selection:
 		East Carolina  10/9/2010 7:30:01 PM - (EST)
+4  -105
Wager Type:Total
Wager Status:Win
Risk / To Win Amount:315.00 / 300.00 (USD)    Accepted 10/10/2010 0:16 AM - EST
Won:   300.00
Amount Paid:   300.00
 
Sport / Period:NCAA Football   /  2nd Half
Selection:
 		San Jose State/Nevada  10/9/2010 10:30:01 PM - (EST)
Under  31½  -105
Wager Type:Total
Wager Status:Win
Risk / To Win Amount:550.00 / 500.00 (USD)    Accepted 10/10/2010 2:16 PM - EST
Won:   500.00
Amount Paid:   500.00
 
Sport / Period:NFL Football   /  2nd Half
Selection:
 		Kansas City Chiefs/Indianapolis Colts  10/10/2010 1:00:01 PM - (EST)
Under  21½  -110

ager Type:Total
Wager Status:Win
Risk / To Win Amount:460.00 / 400.00 (USD)    Accepted 10/10/2010 2:37 PM - EST
Won:   400.00
Amount Paid:   400.00
 
Sport / Period:NFL Football   /  2nd Half
Selection:
 		Chicago Bears/Carolina Panthers  10/10/2010 1:00:01 PM - (EST)
Under  16  -115

Wager Type:Spread (or run line)
Wager Status:Win
Risk / To Win Amount:550.00 / 500.00 (USD)    Accepted 10/10/2010 5:41 PM - EST
Won:   500.00
Amount Paid:   500.00
 
Sport / Period:NFL Football   /  2nd Half
Selection:
 		Arizona Cardinals  10/10/2010 4:05:01 PM - (EST)
+4  -110

Wager Type:Total
Wager Status:Win
Risk / To Win Amount:550.00 / 500.00 (USD)    Accepted 10/10/2010 6:07 PM - EST
Won:   500.00
Amount Paid:   500.00
 
Sport / Period:NFL Football   /  2nd Half
Selection:
 		San Diego Chargers/Oakland Raiders  10/10/2010 4:15:01 PM - (EST)
Over  21½  -110

Wager Type:Total
Wager Status:Win
Risk / To Win Amount:525.00 / 500.00 (USD)    Accepted 10/10/2010 9:59 PM - EST
Won:   500.00
Amount Paid:   500.00
 
Sport / Period:NFL Football   /  2nd Half
Selection:
 		Philadelphia Eagles/San Francisco 49ers  10/10/2010 8:20:01 PM - (EST)
Over  20½  -105

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 238
Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by thewild:

last week all underdogs won so wait until all the favorites win.


favorite did cover last week
bears 17-3 1st half /2nd half 6-3 spread was -2.5
detroit 24-6 1st half /2nd half 20-0 spread was -3

by looking at the first half score I get an edge for my 2nd half choice.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59963
Posted: #36

Im happy you posted your theory, I am sure there are people who will try it out.

The question is - Is this supported by statistically significant data, or is this a pattern in the randomness?

If you choose not to engage in that discussion that is your right, but these things are posted 1000 times a day here - and I (amongst others) are very interested in theories that are backed up with data.

Maybe this one works when tested longterm, maybe it doesnt - but dont dismiss the discussion of it - because it is the only way to verify the validity.

But GL with this, and let us know how it works out.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 561
Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by yncibrc:



favorite did cover last week
bears 17-3 1st half /2nd half 6-3 spread was -2.5
detroit 24-6 1st half /2nd half 20-0 spread was -3

by looking at the first half score I get an edge for my 2nd half choice.




accept friend request...would like to PM you 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2002
Posts: 67006
Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by yncibrc:


please check last week game and see how many game fall within the teaser 6 point.

out of 13 games only 2 indy -6.5 win by 10 and jets -4.5 win by 9 the rest of the 11 game the teaser point won't help you to win the game.  My point is if the favorite cover the spread they will cover the teaser point.  Rarely, you can play teaser favorite and teaser dog in the same game and win both.


What about also...
GB -2.5 (lost by 3)
Balt +8.5 (lost by 14)

This "theory" only worked out so well because so many dogs happened to win SU this week.  That is not typically the case.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 238
Posted: #39
it will be hard for me to go back and give you the data.  I don't remember all the 2nd half spread to show but if you start follow it from this week then you will see.  We are all here to share information to get a better edge.  Either win or lose its still extra information for you to gain so you can make a better bet.  I have been playing for 10 years and I haven't had a losing season.  This year is really tough for everyone since favorite don't cover but for me it doesn't affect my betting since I base my pick on the total of the first half.
Most people got influence on their pick because of point spread and their favor team.
At first when I learned this tips I was skeptical and thought it was a coincident but it proof to me time and time again.















 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 86
Posted: #40
Thanks for sharing this info.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 1446
Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by depeche2:

Unless you can verify the accuracy of this over a long period with actual database results against an accurate spread, I'm not buying it.  One week proves nothing.

Besides, last week what about:
Atlanta (down 7-6 went on to cover)
Indy (up just 6-3 at the half covered the 2H)
SF (down at the half, but covered -3 2H)

Just off the top of my head.  I want to see this back-tested against every game for at least 5 years against an accurate DB.  I'd bet big $$ that it's somewhere between 45-55% win rate.

Just info that he is sharing with us, no one asked you to buy anything.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 807
Posted: #42
No matter what thanx for sharing.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 248
Posted: #43

Thanks for sharing this with the covers community. Glad to hear this theory has worked out well for you over the years.

Lots of questions regarding statistical data to back up your theory. I for one would be interested in seeing how it plays out for the remainder of the year. Sure, dogs have cleaned house this year, but as the season continues, team stats will begin to factor into the lines and the number of dogs covereing will drop IMO.

You should keep this thread updated with results of your plays based on this theory for those like myself, who are interested

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2005
Posts: 6890
Posted: #44

10/13/10 - UCF @ MAR

0-1

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 296
Posted: #45

Any body know where can we find 2half line so we can check

thanks

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2005
Posts: 6890
Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by john19:

Any body know where can we find 2half line so we can check

thanks

https://www.freescoresandodds.com/

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2010
Posts: 1296
Posted: #47
thx for sharing!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 1148
Posted: #48
How does this work for predicting over/unders for the second half?

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 815
Posted: #49

 

 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 238
Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by JCtS:

10/13/10 - UCF @ MAR

0-1



I only use this for NFL.  NCAA is a different system because it has too many game to make it profitable.
All Forums | Systems & Strategies
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.