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Top Dog - NHL System

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Posted: #176
I post picks as soon as lines are available, following a loss.  Which ever team is listed as the TOP DOG on COVERS at the time - is the team I pick for the following day's play.  Last night, following WINN's loss... CALGARY was clearly the TOP DOG at +115.  The problem is we often get days like today where lines change and we wind up with multiple "TOP" dogs.  Take for example the lines posted below.  These are current updated lines:

COVERS:
CAROLINA +118
CALGARY +115
TORONTO +115

5DIMES:
CAROLINA +115
CALGARY +110
TORONTO +105


I guess I'm posting this information to point out that there is some degree of uncertainty regarding which TOP DOG to play...and more importantly - when to make this consideration (i.e. immediately when lines are posted - or closer to puck-drop).  Assuming we are to consider opening lines, CALGARY is the play.  If we are to take the "TOP DOG" at closer to game time, the play would be CAROLINA.
 
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Posted: #177
All this being noted, CALGARY is 0-3 heading into their 4th and final road game in their current road series.  Some facts worth noting:

CALGARY has not lost more than 2 games in a row so far this year
CALGARY has won at least 1 road game in every 3+ game road series so far this season. 

Solely based on those odds, I think CALGARY has a decent chance of pulling through with a "W" for us today...but this is called gambling for a reason
 
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Posted: #178
Following tonights Calgary win...

SEASON RECORD - 21-31 +23.6 units
 
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Posted: #179
Quote Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:



SUNDAY 11/27 - Game 4
6pm ET

CAL +115 (4 UNITS)









I guess we'll roll with the biggest dog listed on COVERS when each prior game finishes.  For example, immediately following CALGARY's win...DALLAS is listed as a +123 dog tomorrow. So DAL +123 is the play.
 
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Posted: #180
COVERS:
TB +104
EDM +106
DAL +123
SJ +100



MONDAY 11/28 - Game 1
9pm ET

DAL +123 (1 UNIT)






 
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Posted: #181
Quote Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:

COVERS:

MONDAY 11/28 - Game 1
9pm ET

DAL +123 (1 UNIT)









SEASON RECORD:  22-31
+24.8 units

 
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Posted: #182
TUESDAY 11/29 - Game 1
10pm ET

CLB +197 (1 UNIT)
 
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Posted: #183
wow seems like a great system.

Question:

Should I play the highest dog when the lines first come out or wait later in day close to when first game of the day starts?
 
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Posted: #184

@RICEBOI

I try and wait as long as possible, since that is how I back tested this system..with the closing lines...good luck man

 
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Posted: #185
I asked this same questions a couple posts back and did not get an answer so I have been using opening lines...it has been producing winners for the past couple weeks.  Of course, this could change at any time.

Take for example the 11/27 play on CALGARY +115.  CAROLINA opened at +110 and closed at around +120, while CALGARY opened at +115 and closed at +110.  CALGARY won, CAROLINA lost.  I will be sticking to opening lines as opposed to closing lines...unless there are other factors to consider.





 
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Posted: #186
I am also playing a variation of MCSI's NHL system that involves chasing teams on road trips of at least 3 games.  If you look through all of the 3+ game road series this season, (so far) not one team has lost all three games (even the HORRIBLE teams).  With this system, you chase any team that has 3 or more CONSECUTIVE road games until they win.  Often these plays are at plus money - so it's been a pretty profitable system so far.

I will try to indicate when a TOP DOG play correlates with one of these MCSI plays - if it's worth mentioning.  Hopefully this will serve to our advantage in one way or another.





By the way, CLB enters their first road game of a 4 game road series against VAN tonight.  Because this is game one of that road chase system, it is an "A" play.




TOP DOG CHASE:
CLB +180 ("A" wager)

MCSI road series chase:
CLB +180 ("A" wager)



 
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Posted: #187
you guys think of using the RPI from realitycheck's thread, maybe it can help pick a better dog when some of the top dogs have the same payout?

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101192263

might help be a filter as well
 
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Posted: #188
also do you think this system could work for NBA when it starts up?
 
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Posted: #189
I think RPI is a neat idea but I don't necessarily think it will help this system as the results I have seen in RealityCheck1's threads have been all over the place.  I do follow hockey a bit though and tend to like certain match ups better than others for different reasons.  I have no interest in the NBA...too many variables.  TheEtrain might though.



 
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Posted: #190
Quote Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:

TUESDAY 11/29 - Game 1
10pm ET

CLB +197 (1 UNIT)







WEDNESDAY 11/30 - Game 2
7:30pm ET

TB +140 (2 UNITS)




 
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Posted: #191
Quote Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:



WEDNESDAY 11/30 - Game 2
7:30pm ET

TB +140 (2 UNITS)




 
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Posted: #192
RECORD 21-33 (+20.6 units)









THURSDAY 12/1 - Game 3
10:30pm ET

MON +150 (3 UNITS)
 
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Posted: #193
So i'm assuming the system ignores if teams are playing on a back too back? I hate playing back to back dogs (mon in this case) but if the system and back testing ignores it then I guess  I'm still in for tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #194
Just my 2 cents guys . It seems most dogs have had higher opening odds . I was waiting as I thought they would go up like usally is the case in baseball only to be pissed when they went lower in most cases . I am new to NHL betting and have been following Top Dog system for several weeks . Now I do what Green Machine does and take the opening line . BOL .
 
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Posted: #195
It's a guessing game - like today.  MON opened at +158 (on covers... +150 @ 5Dimes) and now it's at +168 at 5Dimes.  I'm pretty sure it will climb even higher before puck drop.


 
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Posted: #196
MONTREAL also fits MCSI's NHL road chase system as a "B" wager (or second game of a 3 game chase).
 
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Posted: #197
SAWYER also picked MON as his only wager today.
 
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Posted: #198
System Update

October 11-15 +12.5 units
November 11-18 +9.3 units
December ??

Lets see if we can get 12 wins this month!  
 
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Posted: #199
damnit montreal almost won.
 
 
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Posted: #200
Quote Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:


THURSDAY 12/1 - Game 3
10:30pm ET

MON +150 (3 UNITS) 






RECORD 21-34 (+17.6 units)


FRIDAY 12/2 - Game 4
8:30pm ET

NYI +173  (4 UNITS)





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