Carlos

He should win

@RayRayK

  -3.5 a Juego?

havent seen neither play all tourney but I do know carlos at times lose focus and take his foot off the gas and we've all seen many comebacks from nole just saying

Take foot off the gas pedal for a chance to go to finals? I no think so sir.

I had a large wager on Alcaraz last round. He played an excellent match, but I had two knocks on him, small ones.

He had 40-0 a couple of times and he let it get to 40-30. Keeping in mind he was cruising at this point.

And of course the unthinkable end of the match where he had thoroughly outplayed Tsitsipas and got broken while serving for the match. Next game he had a match point on Tsitsipas' serve, and didn't convert and forced it into a relatively close tiebreak. 

I was looking ahead at the live line. I think he was -1000 for the third set, but the 4th set line was online like -195 or something. The discrepancy? I believe the books believed if he was somehow to lose the third set, it would be a red flag and it could have been downhill from there. 

So I know Carlos is being anointed the next big thing, but he's still only 20 years old. He doesn't have the experience that a Djokovic has from playing in 33 finals and winning 22 of them like Novak has. He needs to stay laser focused because Novak is dangerous.

Novak only has 2 titles on Clay though, and Carlos appears to be as comfortable on clay as Nadal. In the end, I do like Carlos to pull it out, but he's going to need to do it in either straights or 4 sets. Because I don't trust him if it goes to 5. I think a 5th set would favor Djokovic. 

@slamspurs

 Excellent analysis  

He should but no one will be surprised if he doesn’t 

@slamspurs

 Great analysis. You clearly understand your tennis. Having said that, I did just take a bet on Carlos to win it all at -140 (since I think winner of this match wins it all anyway). 

I think the over 37.5 is the best play for this match.  

@jvarghese

I don't bet totals at all. I think that's a complete crapshoot. Like even if it goes 4 sets,  the under could still hit cuz of the whacky set scores. Like even when Fed would play Djokovic and Nadal, he'd still have games where he's lose 6-1 because he knew he needed to concede and conserve his energy for the rest of the match. 

6-4, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 is a very reasonable score and that would be an under. If you look at the odds, 6-3 is actually the score with the greatest probability to hit. 

@yeghia

That's not a bad bet I suppose. But remember these young guys, they're often unpredictable. Casper Ruud made Rune look pretty silly last match. Zverev is far from perfect, but he's been a bit clutch lately. 

And no, I don't really know my tennis. I just live bet tennis from time to time, so I look at live lines and how they move based on certain situations. 

Oh do I miss the days when we could just bet Nadal every year at Roland Garros and collect 2 weeks later. 

Before I go to sleep and wake up to the match, based on some stuff I've been reading and looking at, I think Novak is likely going to take the opening set. My best guess is 6-4 or 7-5. People think Novak may start slow, seeing as he lost the opening set to Karen last outing. 

I'm seeing a ton of Alcaraz love, and he's probably going to come out with a chip on his shoulder for the first time in a long time being the rare occasion where he's an underdog. 

I'm interested in seeing how Alcaraz would respond to dropping his first opening set. It'll show me how mature this kid is and whether he's ready for primetime. I remember first hearing about Alcaraz last year. He was playing Nadal and was up a set or two on him and he was favored to win, but faded towards the end of the match. Wondering if he's still that same guy. We'll see. I haven't been this excited to see a tennis match since Federer was in contention in a major. 

Joker as a dog? +180? I sorry but I’ll risk that.   Over 37.5 probably the most solid play. 

Think Joker being this big a dog takes a bit of pressure off him, and it might even be fun for him to take on the dog role. 

I don’t know if you watch a lot of tennis but i can clearly say Alcaraz is past being ready for prime time. That was pretty stupid comment. Guys 30-4 this year, won last major he played in.  

I still like joker +180.   If alcaraz was +180 I’d like him lol.    

I bet if u bet against alcaraz every match this year you be up money, and he’s only lost 4. 

BOL @RayRayK

@JackSmack

 Over!  

This kid isn’t ready. Failed to serve out a set for the second consecutive time going back to last match.

0-40 and no break. Lost 5 pts in a row. 

There’s no way this kid is winning the match. 

Joker is winning this match. I’ve seen enough. 

@buttas

 Are you grabbing djokovic at +160 or whatever it is now?

Well Joker is -400 and climbing now. 

WTF. Am I seeing this right? Novak is -5000? 

Geez did Alcaraz get hurt or something? 

Yeah he did. This is unbelievable. Cuz I've been playing on Draftkings, and if Alcarez retires I would have gotten my money back. But I went to MGM last night and put in a bet with cash. Rules over there are one set and there's action. 

Carlos has a major leg cramp. He can barely move, and cramps aren’t considered for medical reasons so he can’t use medical time out. This is pretty lock for Novak