I cannot quite bring myself to write play of the year here but...

... Tsonga to beat Nadal -160 looks like the most enticing line I have seen in months at the very least. I have watched this tournament and Nadal for all his heroics is lucky to have gotten this far. Both of his last two opponents, far from power hitters, have manhandled him until choking in the closing minutes. And now he plays Tsonga a LEGIT power hitter, one who waxed him something historic in the Aussie Open a few years ago, who looks at least on form enough to destroy this deflated version of Nadal.

I am a huge Nadal fan. But I think he has not been right in sometime. I faded him small in the USO vs DP and regretted not going in huge like I should have. Bet Davydenko 2-0 vs him in the finals a month or so ago and cashed. Now comes another huge chance to make money off of his current form on HCs. I love the guy but these shallow balls he is hitting this week will get creamed by Tsonga. I don't even like Tsonga 90% of the time but the mismatch should be huge. Current form counts, surface counts.

Yes I started drinking for that bullshit Gonzalez bet and am still buzzed but I was waiting for this line since the end of Nadal's match today and they made it low enough to be right in my hitting range. Five units parlayed with various NFL picks that will most likely hit same as this one should. I think even hardcore fans like DelPotro (nice fight from your boy today btw) will agree the value is with Tsonga here. Lock in now before it goes up. I love Nadal but this is hard court reality and I think he is overvalued because of name recognition here. I love the guy but feel compelled to take advantage. Go ahead and fade because I am cold with faves but I do not think this is going to be close. GL.

I like it. Nadal is my favorite tennis player and second favorite athlete after Tiger. This is such a bad stylistic matchup for Rafa on Hardcourts. Tsonga's serve and heavy groundstrokes will give Rafa bigtime problems. Rafa also looks to have lost alot of bulk and thus hes not hitting the ball as hard as he used too. I think this whole end to the season is more a conditioning stint for Rafa more then him actual trying to win these tournaments.

Im going to bet on Tsonga tomorrow. if he wins, I win money, if Rafa wins I will most likely watch another great tennis match.

line says it all....Tsonga will win


I am also backing Monfils and Stepanek

and man was that Gonzo shit ridiculous

I noticed the lack of bulk when he took his shirt off this week. Definitely not where he was in the clay court season and it explains all these shallow strikes he has hit this week that have really opened up offensive opportunities for his opponents.

I feel the same as far as the fact that if I lose this bet I will feel like I watched something historic in the process. I would almost like to see it happen if I had not bet this much. But I think in this case reality is going to be a bit too cruel to allow such a beautiful result to take place. I usually bet with my heart and that is where it is but in this case the contrast from what I want to see and what I think will actually happen is so stark that I have to go with my head. I want money like Nadal wants wins!

Very glad to see you agree on this. Shows objectivity IMHO and that is probably the most important factor in tennis capping. (not that I would know, haha)
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Three more factors for Tsonga, strong ones:

1. Homefield advantage. Home field provides as much if not more of an advantage for tennis than any sport, save maybe the NBA. Check out how Melzer played at his home tournament a few weeks ago and tell me I am lying. He was insane. And Tsonga seems like the type to feed off the crowd energy, if you have seen him play before.

2. Tsonga is the defending champion and thus has a ton of points to defend.

3. He will not feel the usual pressure a fave would. Will probably sense the expectations but losing to Nadal is not something people would bat an eye over, especially those who have not seen them play this week, that is, most. And obviously anyone relishes a chance to beat the man on any surface; there is inherent motivation in playing against Nadal.

Tsonga should max out for this one. And even if pressing leads to a high number of errors I think even he will figure out soon that if he reigns it in some he can win this easily. If he wants it it is right there for him. He shouldn't even have to be brilliant to win, and with the pressure off some and all the other factors in play he might well be exactly that tomorrow. Just IMHO.

A couple of things that make me pause:

  Nadal is such a vastly  superior mentally tough guy. Frankly, Tsonga is a head case. Nadal simply has to hang around and wait for Tsonga to implode.

 All the pressure is on Tsonga. He really needs to win this to qualify...but he is 1-3 vs Nadal, that record is all on hardcourts.

 The line is exactly where it should be to me. This is hardly a "bet of the year" deal to me.Far from it!!!!

  Betting on Tsonga is like betting on Safin. I am staying away from it. But good luck to all whoever you decide on...

 This could be a great match..or it could be a fiasco.

Gutsy play here. Tsonga can be risky. He's played better in Paris but in recent matches I watched (Clement and Youzhny) just get his monster 1st serve in play and wait for him to make an error. Nadal is one of the best returners so we'll see. No play for me there but liking Djokovic and Stepanek a lot, Monfils a little in the other matches. I would be backing up the truck on Stepanek but I need two full sets completed and it probably won't happen with Delpo having ab muscle problems.

i can bet Tsonga at my local @+105

tsonga against the best returner and defense player in the circuit, tsonga will need 3 to 4 big shots to finish every point. am i the only one who can see tsonga starting to make mistakes seeing all his shots coming back? Is tsonga really so reliable and consistent to be able to make big shot after big shot?

$20000 to win $29600 for nadal victory..

20.000??? thats 20.000 cents??

new to this and probably on the wrong side but nadal is the tiger of tennis right??? nadal 100 to win 135

Did a lot of back and forth thinking on this one and finally am going with........

Tsonga -155

I just think with Nadal's recent form combined with all the hours he's spent on the court the past 2 days and Tsonga playing at home, defending a title, and a possibility to still qualify for the year-end championship...yeah, a lot of stuff pointing to Tsonga...who dispatched Cilic yesterday in 50 minutes and had the previous day off

Correction:  Simon...NOT Cilic

mental toughness is never what I question with Tsonga. I do not think of him as a choker at all. What is the evidence of this?

His problem is tennis IQ aka court strategy. But he is always hungry for victory IMHO and will not need to employ brilliant tactics today. He can hit through this Nadal I think. Nadal is the best returner in the game but even that has looked off this week. GL.

I just cannot comprehend how so many are laying good money on Nadal at only slight dog odds vs Tsonga after how he has looked this week...

an injured Simon at that.

it is early but all my lines of reasoning look pretty legit now don't they? I should have wrote game of the year. Felt tempted. You can say this matchup was not worth it but it is all about results.

and yes im still buzzed from last night dont mind me

tsonga misses out on two break chances after holding in 45 seconds. fuck. im going to stop jinxing this pick now.

at the moment nadal has his teeth in this, somehow.

ok let me try this... i am very sorry for my last few cocky responses. no this was definitely no GOY worthy. Yes Tsonga is a mental midget. People who bet Nadal took advantage of quite an opportunity. I was wrgon, you were right. I just hope for a competitive second set. The idea of Tsonga from one down winning two in a row... well, things are more than grim, they look over.

"timed his push to perfection" won 11 of last 15 points of set.

i just hope the second involves more clutch play from tsonga, he is undoubtedly the huge dog now. maybe that will help. sad day and horrific pick. my apologies for trying to promote another loser so hard.

(maybe that will work)

Tsonga is over +200 in live betting. wow.

GSM. congrats nadal backers. was way off here.

me for betting on tsonga

cant believe you guys took mofo Tsonga against NADAL....

yeah, definitely not my finest hour being on Tsonga...I had no idea Verdasco advanced if Rafa won, once I read that, I knew it was all over but the crying