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Monte Carlo 2016 - Be ready for upsets!

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
I haven't wrote to Covers for a while, but here are my five cents for the tournament. I'll be posting best picks in my pov. 

I've had a decent run year 2016. Betting all right finalists at Australian Open and both Masters. Also picked Estrella to win Quito.

One of the biggest things I predict for this tournament is that Djokovic won't win the tournament. I can see Monfils or Goffin upset serbian on early rounds. 

Another thing is that Thiem is going to win Nadal and Wawrinka/Simon winner. Simon played decent yesterday, so it won't be an upset if he wins Dimitrov and Wawrinka. Murray hasn't been himself after his kid was born so I boldly predict that Thiem will face Goffin or Federer at the finals. 

Both Goffin and Thiem has had an awesome year on 2016. I'm trusting young guns to deliver so I made few bets on Bet365.

To Win 1st Quarter - David Goffin @ 15.00  
To Win 3rd Quarter - Dominic Thiem @ 5.00 
To Reach Final - David Goffin @ 67.00 
To Win Outright - Dominic Thiem (Each-Way) @ 26.00 

For today I have three picks. 
Muller - Monfils / Under 21,5 @ 1.86
Muller has won only 3 clay matches in four years and Monfils had decent run last year at Monaco. Should be a no-brainer.

Gasquet - Almagro / Gasquet -3,5 @ 1.86
Almagro lost to Garcia-Lopez ugly last week. It's not so easy to bounce back from that and I believe that Gasquet will win by atleast two breaks.

Struff - Thiem / Thiem -5.0 @ 1.91
Normally I don't like to bet on big handicaps, but can't pass on this one. Struff had decent Q's but Thiem has been so good on 2016. At least 3 breaks for Austrian.
 
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Posted: #2
Are u a winner?
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by bet-lag:

Are u a winner?
I've made solid profit for the last three years and I've had my best start of the season this year.

Monfils started out slow but managed to win 2-0 (7-5, 6-0). After the start Muller started to play like we've used to. Next game in 10.
 
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Posted: #4
Decent 2-1 start for the tournament. Thiem was surprisingly bad at first set vs Struff. One reason why I try to avoid big handicaps.
 
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Posted: #5
I only bet odds over 1.70 (-143), so that's why I left Dzumhur and Taro Daniel out today. I was considering betting for Simon, but even odds don't tempt to play this match. I believe it's slightly tilted in favor of Simon, but not good enough odds to make it profitable.

Gimeno-Traver - Cuevas / G-T +4,5 @ 1.75
Cuevas had a decent start for the season, but as always he's started to play poorly. Cuevas doesn't play well in Europe, specially on clay. G-T had awesome Q's and I wouldn't be surprised to see Spaniard to win this one without HC.

Kohlschreiber - Coric / Coric +3,5 @ 2.07
Kohlschreiber's first clay match this year. Coric played decent last week at Marocco. This young guy has potential for the upset, but he hasn't played too solid this year. Close1 that will likely go to 3rd set.

Verdasco - Delbonis / Delbonis -1,5 @ 1.88
I have strange feeling about this but I will bet against my gut. Delbonis was really good last week. Verdasco hasn't played solid last few years. Slow clay is Delbonis' best surface imo.


 
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Posted: #6
Why do you think it's slightly favored for Simon?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan8890:

Why do you think it's slightly favored for Simon?
Simon started the season slow but has been improving last few weeks. He was in good form against Troicki. 

Dimitrov started well. But he hasn't played so well on slower courts. Even the fact that he won Murray at Miami. Krajinovic match was decent.

Not a huge cap between these two. Almost a coin flip, but just slightly tilted for Simon.
 
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Posted: #8
I was leaning dimitrov but everyone on here likes Simon 
 
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Posted: #9
And it looked like Simon struggled with his serve today 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan8890:

And it looked like Simon struggled with his serve today 
True, but that hasn't been Simon's biggest problem this year. He's had problem with his game overall. Ridiculous amount of unforced errors. Monte Carlo is one of the slowest courts and Simon has good a second serve. 

But all in all. With flat odds, this game is a no go.
 
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Posted: #11
Decent selections yesterday mate.  I personally never like playing the handicap as things like that first set in Thiem match happens on regular basis.  Today i have gone for Simon to win.  Although Simon can be error prone i feel he will have a little too much for Dimitrov, with added motivation being on home soil.  Depending on this result i will then look to invest in Daniel.
Out of interest, a little strange that you only bet 1.7 or over.  Eachto their   own but a winner is a winner, although there is i a certain cap ie anything below 1.25.
Best of luck, decent posts so fair play to you.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by astute:

Out of interest, a little strange that you only bet 1.7 or over.  Eachto their   own but a winner is a winner, although there is i a certain cap ie anything below 1.25.
I prefer quality over volume. I like to bet on good handicaps or underdog moneylines where I see good value. Last year I made around 850 bets and reached over 120% ROI by flat bets. I've started this season really hot. Pre tournament bets (Quarter winners, outright, name the finalists, to reach final and so on) are today over 240% ROI flat and match bets are around 110% this year (about 200 bets). 

I don't calculate percentage. I bet by what I see on previous games. Also I don't give credit for good performance over one month back. This is one reason I don't calculate odds. This would take so much time from actually watching the games and gathering the information I need to make my picks. 

With odds over 1.70 I make more profit because I can concentrate only on high value games. Winner is a winner, but I prefer 2/3 with +1.70 than 2/3 1.45. Also tennis games have decent percentage of underdog wins, so I like to chase those and not bang my head against the wall with favorites.
 
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Posted: #13
Wow. Haase was way worse than I expected. Also G-T is a lock and has chance to win the game. Nice start for the day. 
 
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Posted: #14
This Verdasco match is weird, I had a gut feeling too. Maybe because Delbonis just won the last tournament and is a little tired?
 
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Posted: #15
Yeah. Should never bet against gut feeling. I think it's not the fatigue, but more like the fact that Delbonis isn't even decent player. Coric lost 6-4, 6-4, so after two days 3-3. 
 
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Posted: #16
It's time to bounce back and win some today! Today's games aren't so easy to pick. Paire-Sousa is a even book flip. Skip this. Really. Bedene might squeeze a set from Nadal, so beware the handicap. Also Vesely +6,5 should be valid option. He's been good on clay and Djokovic is playing his first clay match.

Anyway. Here are my picks for today. Feel free to ask any questions.

Berdych - Dzumhur / Dzumhur +5 @ 1.94
Bird's first clay match. Dzumhur has been playing very decent as top 100 on ATP year 2016. He has wiped floors with his three opponents in MC. Bird always starts slow on clay and Dzumhur is not easy to break today. +5 is almost always a good bet on two set games.

Kohlschreiber - Wawrinka / Kohlschreiber @ 3.00
Both players are really good on clay. Wawrinka should take this match, but my gut says that MC is one of those tournaments which Wawrinka couldn't care any less. Stan has played only one match last month, losing to Kuznetsov 2-0 at Miami. 

Cuevas - Raonic / Raonic -2,5 @ 1.86
This feels like a gift. Cuevas was in a big trouble against Gimeno-Traver. Raonic has been top 5 player this year and improved a ton from last year. He doesn't force it on the first rounds and only does what he has to do. Cuevas plays like sh*t in Europe, so this should be an easy lock.

Goffin - Verdasco / Goffin -4 @ 2.00
Goffin wiped Lopez out easily. Verdasco on a good day is way worse than Lopez. Verdasco won Delbonis with style, but he isn't a solid player. Goffin wins both sets atleast with one break. 

Zverev - Granollers-Pujol / Zverev -3,5 @ 1.91
Sweet odds at William Hill. G-P lost to Gimeno-Traver at Q's 6-3, 6-0. Zverev is always good at clay and showed some good plays against Rublev on first round. Zverev's been improving this season, although he hasn't yet reached his max potential.



 
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Posted: #17
like them all except Raonic. I'm taking Cuevas to win straight up. Good luck
 
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Posted: #18
Just wow! Dzumhur eliminated Bird. Next up Cuevas/Raonic so odds might be favorable again next round.
 
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Posted: #19
BOOOOM! Djokovic out earlier than expected and Goffin beat Verdasco! Only two games left to win Quarter and 3rd match to reach the finals. 

Verdasco played really good tournament and I'm glad that he finally shows game of this level. Dzumhur is only lock today so far, but this Djoko / Goffin situation is way bigger going forward this week.
 
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Posted: #20
Yesterday was a bust and full of surprises. Vesely beat Djokovic, Dzumhur beat Berdych and Zverev lost to Granollers-Pujol. Not to mention about Pouille topping Gasquet. The way that the tournament as been, I'm betting underdogs today. Very decent odds, but if you don't like to play with odds this high, you can pick the handicap.

Dzumhur - Raonic / Dzumhur @4.50
Dzumhur is playing tournament of his life. Yesterday he played against Bird and won on third set. Bird couldn't handle Dzumhur's play at all. Raonic had huge troubles against Cuevas. This promises good for Dzumhur and with these odds, this is a must play.

Nadal - Thiem / Thiem @ 3.25
Thiem started first two games slow but dominated on 2nd and 3rd. I've picked Thiem to go to finals and this is one of the most important games on the way. Thiem won Nadal at Buenos Aires 2-1. He has to step it up, but over 3.00 odds this is very playable.

Simon - Wawrinka / Simon @ 3.20
Simon is back at his level. He started the season slow but seems to pick up the pace. Wawrinka had a though match against Kohlschreiber yesterday. The way Simon played against Troicki and Dimitrov should be enough today. 
 
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Posted: #21
look like 2 gone  1 bearly standing atm ......
 
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Posted: #22
I was hammering Thiem 2nd set for +200 :(
 
 
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Posted: #23
all GG
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