Wimbledon 2019

Locked in:

Nadal -5.5 games (-138)...3u

See this around 63 64 61 Rafa 

PB, congratulations on a big day!

Out of interest mate how long do you take to cap each day's games? Your knowledge seems on point. Are you looking at playing styles, recent form, serving and return statistics or looking at weather, who hits a heavier ball etc?

I notice your comment re: no obvious pick. I agree with this however I am reluctant, even as a recreational bettor, to throw in very heavy faves in a small parlay or straight out. Do you weigh up the lines vs inferred probability? I assume you would as you're one of the few winning and transparent cappers on here, and therefore even a heavy favourite can be value. It would seem that most guys don't consider probability and instead of being "market makers" are actually "market takers." (bit of finance lingo but essentially instead of backing something based on what you perceive the price to be they just take whatever the bookmaker price is or follow the money or bet even if there is no value to be had)

I'm very interested in learning more about tennis. Like picking people's brains to try and improve. I'm sure you're very busy so no rush. answer whenever you can!

Cheers

BF

I will gladly respond to this kind post when i have some time to respond in more depth...lets just say ive been at tennis betting for a very long time, and use my personal experience as a semi pro player in my younger days on the challenger circuit to help me cap more about matchups and scenarios than analytics or stats...tennis is unlike any other sport to cap - individual sports have so many intangibles we as bettors rarely have enough info to make a good bet...we can only make the best educated prediction and hope for the best...thanls for the positive feedback, its always a good feeling to know people appreciate my insights here, regalrdless of the results.

I win more than i lose, and i truly enjoy the sport and always will...and my passion comes out here in the tennis forum almost all the time.

Lets stay hot into the business end of this slam 

Locked in:

Serena -4.5 games (-120)...2u

My friend Sir Baelish...nice to see you...hope all is swell and youre having a great summer so far. 

I have a gut feeling Halep will find a way to choke vs Svit in the semis, Zhang in a Wimbledin QF may be too much gor her nerves...this wont be the type of match Halep loses...im really close to taking Svit to win the wholething at +900 and just hope both my horses play in the finals...im actually really enjoying my Serena future now given how the draw played itself out...but tomorrow lets go Simona for both you and me and all our Romanian brothers and sisters 

GL mate.

You play a mix or set handicaps, game handicaps and straight out ML bets. Have you a preference? Or can there be little value on a ML but better value with set or games handicaps?

My personal gut feel is trading in play could be the way to go - for me anyways. In Australia we can use Betfair. It is a betting exchange. Not sure if the US has it. That means we can back and lay bets in play. I have neither the inclination nor the ability to sit and write algorithms for this but I'm assuming it can be an instinctual or gut feel thing as you have alluded to above.

Locked in:

Svitolina -3.5 games (-120)...2u

Svitolina to win 2-0 sets (+110)

Under 21.5 games (-120)...2u

First set might be close, but lack of experience and nerves should be evident in Muchova come the 2nd set...64 62 type match is my best guess here....hoping Gael MonFilled her up good again last night!

You can lead a tampon to water but you cant make them serve out the match 

75 64 Svitolina

Lipps you are correct, still at 2-5 down for Svit in the 1st set, im happy to take profits from this match...i was staring at an Ofer

I lean Uni-Qlo +6.5 games here

Both players r uni-qlo. Just saying, but I know who u meant at +6.5

Gaba  ...yes i was being a bit cheeky there.

Locked in:

Nishikori +6.5 games (-125)...1u

Nishikori is healthy and fit, a rare combo for him...i actually would put Roger on upset alert here as hes truly cruised his way thru a bunch of sivs...Nishi has to play well and win the first set to have a shot here...i think itll look something like 67 63 64 64 for Fed in the end, but it will feel alot closer than that imo...i will be recording all the matches tomorrow to watch and study for the semis and beyond.

Also looking deeper at Nadal to cover the spread and to win in straight sets...Querrey usually turns into a pumpkin at the QFs of a slam

Perhaps its my lack of trust in Qbert on the big stage...people still remember him beating Murray herr few years ago, but that was the time when Andy's hip basically shattered into million tiny microfractures...had Andy just retired and not played that 5th set, he might have avoided the irreversible damage done to his joint...now hes has a devastating life battle with an arthritic hip (but im sure a total hip replafement surgery is in the works for him down the road).

Something uniquely special ive always loved backing Rafa against almost anyone not named Roger or Novak.

Nice to see you Euro...hope all is well and you had a great time in Vegas last time we chatted 

Nadal all the way down to -570??

Nadal still around -800 on both my euro books.

Locked in:

Nadal to win 3-0 sets (-125)...2u...trusting my initial read

Should have mentioned it’s my local book.   I’ll take it as good value. -2.5 sets +115 let’s roll

Too easy $

Locked in:

Svitolina +3.5 games (-120)...2u