Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper

I would say between 57-65% to be honest. Would be surprised if I picked under 57%. I picked at 57% in college foot last season 140+ bets, 59% nfl 120+ bets... Betting every primetime game too at home. So I think I have a real shot at being right near 60% overall if I stay selective how I have been

Thanks CJM. I know u are and I appreciate that. Your a very consistent and solid capper. Once the Suns line went up to +5.5 here I had to lock then in and obviously am glad I did.

CG,

For full disclosure, if it isn't too much trouble, we'd like your posted plays and we'd like the games you are eyeballing for line movements and/or public support.

(These 'eyeballed' NBA games typically happen at 10:30PM East Coast time for the average bettor and involve the Clippers, Lakers, Kings, Suns, Warriors, etc. ...just like in if playing the NFL, the eyeballed game may be the Sunday or Monday night game.

This shouldn't be the least bit surprising as it is the lifeblood of the average chaser, the alleged elixir of green to boost a bankroll after a vigged 1-1 night....Lose a few?...well that elixir become a rancid toxin, eating away at the inner core of the once lively and spunky capper, leaving him only staring at his reflection... in toilet water while dry heaving...wondering where it all went wrong...mouthing the words 'Why the f*** did you chase?!")

 

I must still be half asleep.  I thought I had clicked on 'College Gambler moves to Vegas to be a pro capper'.  Instead I clicked on 'Baronman guy without any concept of punctuation blathering on incessantly about God knows what. DUDE, WILL YOU GIVE A REST!!!  NOONE GIVES A CHIT ABOUT YOUR PICKS OR ANYTHING ELSE.  START YOUR OWN PICKS THREAD. JESUS

 

CG, I'm going to run a fun experiment tailing your bets starting with a modest $150 bankroll. I encourage anyone who wants you to succeed to join in just for the hell of it. Though bashing Kelly staking earlier (I'd still never use it for anything serious), I'll do full Kelly based on an assumed 58% win rate, which translates to 12% bet size (sized down a bit if the games are played simultaneously). If you post "1K plays" or the like I'll assume 60%WR = 16% bet size. The swings will be enormous, but IF you are as good as you think you are, and IF we're lucky not running into too long losing streaks along the way, the returns will be so great that in a year from now I'll be placing bets the size of yours.

I don't have very much hope of those IFS being fulfilled to be honest, but I see it as playing the lottery with somewhat better winning chances while having the great entertainment of this thread on a daily basis.

Worst case scenario it'll be a fine example of the insanity of full Kelly staking. Best case we'll have a very profitable proof of the power of compound interest. I'll add this little experiment to a separate sheet in the gdocs where I trace your bets when I'm back at my computer. Cheers from Sweden.

Wow, I'm impressed you are up at 4:30am.

Bought OKC early last night at -4 and thought I had a lock.

Easy College hoops card tonight but I'll wait for your NBA play / plays.

Can't argue with a 7-1 NBA track record.  Keep rolling!

And where's my shout out?  Ya Fukk.

Sorry goose I forgot brother lol. Prob no video tonight because I'm cooking dinner for the Milf. She's been wanting to hang so I told her to join me for dinner. A little movie at home after and lots of action. Told her I have "work" starting early tommorow tho and we can't sleep In all day. Which I do. Saturday and Sundays we have action beginning at 9am. Even if I don't play a game at that time I like to be "prepared" and capping early. But whenever my next video is I'll def give u a shout out my apologies for forgetting brother!

I somehow picture you with your pants down around your ankles watching these videos you creepy ba$tard...2 mins is plenty bro..

College are you going to reset your month on Sunday? Or just keep the pro career figures running? Not that it matters, just curious. No differences between us anymore....great job.

"OMG, DID HE JUST TAKE PHOENIX....FUKK I love this kid, but I hate this play, I hope you mention me and goose on your video today, cause it's going to be a bad night.....Don't chase, take OKC."

"God damn it, 0-2 night....FUCKKKKK...Okay, let's get this back....I'm on OKC BIG"

"God, I love this college gambler, balls of steel, i'm so bipolar right now, I thought we lost it all, then I took his phoenix bet, and we won, god damn, i'm tailing this guy to the end."

 I love how this hawk fraud is judging this kid, so is scal the wannabe, these guys would never post their faces, and they've been here forever....YOU'RE A FUKING IDIOT, HAWK...You are terrible at everything in life, that's why you criticize a kid for chasing, when you don't even bet real money...

 Let's see if the audience can guess what moron I'm quoting. The italics are mine.

"Judging this kid" But the first poster, on this entire Forum, to say 'don't chase' is guess who?

I'm not judging. If you say you have two picks, and come up with a third, I'm gonna ask.

"They've been here forever" CG has been here since Sept. 2008. Other people have been here longer. We've seen things. What have you seen since Jan. 2015?

"I hate this play. I'm on OKC BIG" "then I took his phoenix bet, and we won" Well, well, well. We seem to have a difference of opinion here, don't we? It's a woman's prerogative to change her mind.

I may very well be bad at everything in life, but I'm not a liar

I think Van had it right. (He's only been here since Nov. 2001-so what could he possibly know, right?)

Simmer down, junior. Adults are talking here

Oh, and not posting our faces? They're called avatars. Try one.

Cg what do you tell the milf and anybody else you've net do far out there? Do you tell them you just moved out to become a pro?? You gotta stop the dipping... Eat all the rice you want but that dip will fuck your mouth up and the milfs won't like that.. Keep on fighting the good fight.

Would be a good idea and similar to what Vanzack and Rangerz were alluding to earlier....Forget days and "profitable weeks".   It would be in CG's best interest to set a monthly goal (i.e. Profit 10K each month.)

With a quantifiable goal, you can make better plays and use better money management.  (2.5K a week profit using same example).  You can also incorporate your burn rate and monthly expenses.  For example, last week when CG was hot, he would have already hit his weekly goal.  On the flip side, you'll lose out on potential opportunities if you just take the day off simply because you've hit goal.

Better to take a step back, analyze your entire strategy from a macro perspective rather than a daily perspective.  That would prevent making plays for just action and possibly eliminate some of the unnecessary wagers that would end up losing.  Just my .02 but to each his own

Nice night CG 2-1. 

I got a pic of me and the Milf from last Saturday out. She's not that great looking. Very thin at least. I like bones on a broad. Can't deal with fat chicks. My tits r bigger than hers tho haha

I am looking at it on am on a month to month basis since I arrived here to be honest..  so I arrived in vegas on Saturday Feb7th so I am only 3 weeks in by the end of this weekend.

yea no harm, I know u were just trying to help..  I think u can see I was only forcing those plays at home now like I said because I hated my job and now u see how I truly bet out here

I took home about 2.5K per month at home working.

so in my first 19 days out here I have earned two months of pay at work.   First month was going to be a lot of trial and error and I knew that but if I could make anywhere between 4-5K a month I will live very comfortably out here and be able to stay for a long time.

if the bankroll increases more than we will look for the 10K months...  This first month I have been very smart in starting slow and working my way up..   my winning % has me with a nice profit too which is great for some nice stability to start.

remember football is my main sport  that's where I expect to make my main dough.

baseball will without a doubt be interesting.. but my discipline will be much better now obviously.. my discipline was terrible last year betting every single afternoon game, but I had to just to get thru work.. that is how boring and how much I hated my job

ill put up the pic of us from the club last Saturday night if u want lol... go easy on me u guys will think im sick lmao.

So Wednesday night I am making dinner and this milf from AFF messages me... Shes from South Bend, Indiana but visits here 8 times a year.. 

she's here this weekend also.. arrived last night and wants me to come meet her and says she will host at her hotel room on the strip.   shes 41, brunette and hot. 

said she was going to text me when she arrived yesterday but she never did.. I'lll keep u updated on that development too if u want.  we had tentative plans to meet tonight or sunday night at her hotel (after quickly meeting for a drink to say hello)  but my milf from last week texted me early this AM asking if I wanted to see her because earlier in week I had made tentative plans to see her Friday.

figuring Indiana milf might be a flake I figured go for the "lock pu$$y" tonight and host with my one from last week.   I am hoping Indiana milf texts me tonight tho and I will make plans to see her tomorrow or sunday. 

see guys gotta lighten the mood in here a bit. living vicoursiously through cg, us married men