New York at New England (02/03/2008)

After the first week of analysis my head is telling me to ride another teaser.  The Patriots IMO have become very hard to cap because you always have in the back of your mind what they did in the start of the season.  You know that they could come out and beat the Giants 48-0 and we would think nothing of it.  They could also control the clock, run the ball, and win like they did last week.  All the money that Vegas lost in the first 8 weeks of the year has been more than made up for.  You want to know why the spread is where it is?  Because the Pats will more than likely win by between 10-14 points.  Vegas knows what they are doing, the Giants and the points are not an easy pick, and neither is the Pats giving the points. 

So going with my teaser...it could easily go either way. By that I mean I would feel just as comfortable with Pats -5.5 as I would with the Giants +17.5.  But like I said before, it would surprise nobody if the Pats absolutely killed the G-Men in this game.  So I would say the safer play is going to be the Pats -5.5.

Moving to the over/under, I feel as though teasing it up to Under 59 is a smart betting decision.  Yes these teams did combine for 73 points just a month ago...but that was in a "meaningless" game at the end of the season.  Looking at the Super Bowl history, very few games have been shootouts.  The average total points scored in super bowls is 45.6...with only 1 of every 3 going over 50 points (14 games total).  Based on the way that the Patriots have been playing lately with their ball control lower scoring defensive battles...I would be weary of going Over any number.

Patriots -5.5
Under 59



Patriots 28
Giants 17

With this being said and Pats on Grass, my Ooooooooover bet 54 is good.

I predict

PATS 38

Giants 28

wonbadappl, the Giants only played the Patriots once this season.  

Please, please don't be counting the Preseason game.  If you are, kindly stuff a T-Bone in your trousers and go see what the local pitbull is doing. 

wonbadappl -  They only played once this season,  and it was in NY.  Get your facts right.  Pats to cover this spread because the public is in love with the G-Men. 

My favorite Sunday of the year is almost here..

A few reasons why I'm taking the Pats...  I don't know if any of this will factor to any of you since my avatar and name proves I'm a Pats fan, but the reasons listed factor HUGE in my decision.

I throw out all types of trends when it comes to big games like these.  Usually in NCAAF bowl games, I will look at stats to help factor into my decision but in this game I am looking at it at a different angle.  We all know the Giants have improved compared to how they played earlier in the season.  Face it, none of us really thought they would beat Dallas or Greenbay the last few weeks.. but somehow they did..and somehow they are in the Superbowl.  The public seems to favor the dog in this matchup, but I'm not buying it. 

The last time these two teams played each other, Giants held the Pats to THREE field goals and four touchdowns.  The Giants had nothing but touchdowns.  Pats were able to get down to the Giants territory, they only punted twice, but they were held down to field goals 3/7 times.  I don't see that happening again this time.. nor do I see the Giants getting 5 touchdowns again.  New England almost blew their perfect season record to this team.  The fact that these two have played each other already should actually be an advantage to the Pats.  The Giants may be riding high to the fact that they ALMOST beat this team, but the Pats may be fired high to crush the team that they ALMOST lost to just a few weeks ago.

Like I said, The Giants almost beat the Pats once.  Belichick is not going to let this happen again.  Pats have one of the best driven coaches (IMO) in the NFL right now.  Do you really think he will sit back and sleep on this game?  They just finished a 16-0 season and are now sitting at 18-0, they had to prove all season long that they did not have to "cheat" to win, and most importantly, they are now facing the team that almost wrecked there perfect season record.  I do not think this game will be a 40-10 blow out but I strongly agree with them covering the spread.  Like WiseGuy stated above, the Giants have only 2 players on the team that have Superbowl experience versus the Pats 20+ players with the experience and not to mention a Coach that has FIVE Superbowl rings.

Has anyone noticed the Pats have NOT thrown deep except but once or twice during the play-offs?  We all know that they definitely have NOT been as dominant as they were before.  Don't think for a second that those big bombs from Brady will be non-existent in this year's Superbowl.  Do you really think Belichick will plan this game out without any of those big & long gamble plays that he had all season?  I think the Giants will be surprised when they find that the few mistakes that the Pats made the last time they played, will not be revealed again.  They won't be settling for field goals, they WILL throw the bombs and Moss will not be silent in this game.

New England's last game against San Diego was not their best game..we all saw that.  And other than the Pats holding the Chargers to only field goals the whole game, San Diego literally ran all over the Pats at first.  Turn those field goals into touchdowns and Brady and Co. will not even be in the Superbowl.  Brady threw 3 interceptions and only 2 touchdowns.  Moss had ONE catch and only ran for 18 yards, and only rushed the ball for 14 yards.  Moss has been almost non existent so far this post season.. but do you really think he will be silent in the biggest game of the year?  The Pats passing game WILL show up in this game and it will lead the Pats to a victory.  We have all seen it before - the Pats passing game dominating all of their opponents.  Don't think for a second the Pats will hold back the big plays.

Everyone is thinking that if the Giants almost beat the Pats once, then isn't getting 11 points a gift?  Vegas is BRILLIANT.. they KNOW what is going on.  They know that when they opened the spread at 14 that the public will pound the Giants and IMO that is exactley what they wanted.  I don't think the line will drop any lower than 11.  They know what the Pats are capable of, they know what the public will do, and they know what should happen.  As WiseGuy stated above - this is the one game of the year that money is floating hard in Vegas.  This is the biggest game of the year, you must think outside the box..

My prediction.. the Giants will keep it close maybe up until halftime.  They will be good for 21 and nothing more than 28.  As I said before, I'm also going to pound the over. 

Pats 40
Giants 24

Good luck everyone. 

holy cow that's a long one.  Sorry guys

Just realized it says 40. 

It should say

Pats 40
Giants 24

sorry guys I blame my keyboard

It SHOULD say

Pats 42
Giants 24

^^^  Get your facts straight!!

Well give me your FACTS.....