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#1
Figured its time hop online and start posting my picks. Im up $30,000 for the season and the folks around me say I need to get into handicapping.
Let me preface this by saying that unless you are Billy Walters or The Syndicate, 99% of you who bet on games straight up will lose. Between the vig eroding your winnings and the unpredictable nature of 19 year olds throwing a ball around, statistically speaking "the house always wins".
That said, there is an alternative approach that I have been refining over the years which has achieved remarkable results, and that is the game of longshot money line round robin parlays.
To put it plainly, money lines become relatively arbitrary when a team is an 8 point dog (+325-ish) and above. If you believe a team has a 20% chance of winning and is getting +900 on a ML, there is "value" there. In a multi team parlay, that value is assigned a multiplier. For instance, last night VMI was +2000 and Georgia Tech was +450. A $10 bet on those two teams would pay 114-1. Upsets like this happen more than you would think, and arguably all the time (just ask Duke how it feels). This strategy contends that systematically selecting (when available) the 3 or 4 best teams with the highest "value" in their moneyline odds, then round robin parlaying all 2,3,4 team combinations, that you will, over a season, extract more value than you ever could betting straight up. but you have to know which of the longshots to look for, and I believe, in the aggregate, I do.
I will be tracking these bets two ways... I will track performance against the spread (so if none of my four picks hit ML, but all hit spread, I would be 4-0 on the spread and 0-1 on the win). My record will be a "win" if 2 of the four teams hit. Note a 2 team parlay with the odds I'm betting results in an average 5x payout. So if I go 2-4 with an average $50 unit bet on a four team round robin (5 teams total, $550 per four team play) then I'm up thousands. If 3 of those teams hit any of the nights, I'd be up $20k. If a four teamer hit (admittedly I've only done once in my life) it could pay in excess of $100k. Hope this makes sense to everyone. So, without further ado, here is the write up for tonight. BOL to all.
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