1/26 - Longshot Parlays ($500 to win $100,000)

Let me preface this by saying that unless you are Billy Walters or The Syndicate, 99% of you who bet on games straight up will lose. Between the vig eroding your winnings and the unpredictable nature of 19 year olds throwing a ball around, statistically speaking "the house always wins".

That said, there is an alternative approach that I have been refining over the years which has achieved remarkable results, and that is the game of longshot money line round robin parlays.

To put it plainly, money lines become relatively arbitrary when a team is an 8 point dog (+325-ish) and above. If you believe a team has a 20% chance of winning and is getting +900 on a ML, there is "value" there.  In a multi team parlay, that value is assigned a multiplier. For instance, last night VMI was +2000 and Georgia Tech was +450. A $10 bet on those two teams would pay 114-1.  Upsets like this happen more than you would think, and arguably all the time (just ask Duke how it feels). This strategy contends that systematically selecting (when available) the 3 or 4 best teams with the highest "value" in their moneyline odds, then round robin parlaying all 2,3,4 team combinations, that you will, over a season, extract more value than you ever could betting straight up.  but you have to know which of the longshots to look for, and I believe, in the aggregate, I do.

I will be tracking these bets two ways... I will track performance against the spread (so if none of my four picks hit ML, but all hit spread, I would be 4-0 on the spread and 0-1 on the win). My record will be a "win" if 2 of the four teams hit.  Note a 2 team parlay with the odds I'm betting results in an average 5x payout.  So if I go 2-4 with an average $50 unit bet on a four team round robin (5 teams total, $550 per four team play) then I'm up thousands.  If 3 of those teams hit any of the nights, I'd be up $20k.  If a four teamer hit (admittedly I've only done once in my life) it could pay in excess of $100k.  Hope this makes sense to everyone.  So, without further ado, here is the write up for tonight.  BOL to all.

The play is every 2,3 and 4 team combination of UTSA, Delaware, VT and USF money lines.  There are 11 potential combinations, so pick a unit $ amount (say $50, which is what I'm playing) multiply that by 11, and that will be your total bet ($550 for the top one, $330 for the bottom in my case).  Then hope at least 2 of the four teams win straight up.  My experience shows me this will hit at a frequency of 1 in 3 or 4 nights which nets a healthy profit.  If one of those nights three of the teams win, then party time for you.

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/8c69c94dnFwT3JzeitBWDlxS2ljdVp1MDJMUT09/r/169892/

And proof of the $4500 miss by 3 points here:

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/9dcd3f9NXJLT0xobUdwZ3FFaUt2T0ZBT2N2QT09/r/169892/

If you have any doubts about the potential of the system, you can see here how the risk was minimal, and how we were ever so close to a multi thousand dollar payday. Tomorrow games are thin so will be back on Saturday with more. Onward and upward!

On a side note, for those who don't "get it" with what I'm doing, and don't understand some basic statistical precepts, or just love trolling, please don't bother with spamming this thread with your ignorant garbage. Quick reference for the doubters, here's a four teamer from this month that won me $20k from the three that hit, and was just shy of $50k. And barring a fluke, will win me a $7k bad beat jackpot in a few days:

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/3a39ab9aW9lWTJEQ1F4YTd4SC9EMWVXLytvQT09

So for those like Westra who want to learn or have a constructive dialogue, I'm here to chat. And as always, BOL to all. 

6 (six) two team parlays

4 (four) three team parlays

1 (one) four team parlay

And yes, the payouts are purely dependent on the ML odds. I gravitate toward games where the spreads are 9+ points as the ML values offer higher multiples when parlayed. There are days (like today) when there are enough underdogs in the sub-9 points spreads to create two separate 4-team groupings. Fortunately the sub-9 group hit 2-4 which offset the loss in the above-9 grouping. Now if UTEP had held on in the sub-9 group, it would have paid thousands. Now if three teams had hit in the above-9 group, it would have paid $20k+

Make sense? In the end you can chose two bet one of two ways:

- Think you're smarter than the bookies and bet tons of spreads and hope to win 60% or more and eek out profits (and if you do, you're probably not reading covers.com

76ers +293

$350 -> $1000

#trusttheprocess #raisethecat

Proof: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/797f366cDc2bS9LVFNGNHovR1Fub2xiS1pxZz09/r/169892/

Thank for the info.  Appreciate anyone who is willing to contribute.  I like the style of thinking, and the logic behind it makes sense.  Now if we only hit a 4 teamer  

I notice you post from nitrogen sports.  Do you prefer that book?  Have you had any deposit or payout issues?

You are a smart man...thanks for contributing