Posted:
#26
the1trugr81 - I appreciate the kind words. I've been gambling (in some form or another) for decades. Experienced mighty highs (six figure wins) and mighty lows. After some time I became disenfranchised with the stress associated with straight bets against spreads. Who really wants the stress of getting .90 back on the dollar, and days where you can lose across the board and be out 7+ units? I have a mathematics background and decided to step back and search for a "better way" (pun intended). I discovered the one (and only) circumstance where I believe the odds swing back in your favor. I started realizing I was onto something when the following happened:
1) I went to a book in Vegas and tried to parlay three ML "longshots" on a $100 to win $30k payout. The guy at the book started asking me questions, and "vetting" me as if I were a sharp or part of a syndicate. He then stepped back and called his boss. After a minute, he came back to me and rejected the bet. Got me thinking... if these odds are true, then why am I getting rejected? (as an aside, I encourage any of you to try and propose a multi-team ML parlay to a book in vegas with a strong 5 or six figure payout, and see if they take the bet).
2) At the same book I noticed that no ML were offered above 10 point dogs. Odd I thought... if these teams really were that big of longshots, they would be clamoring to get your money?
3) The following year, I got kicked off a book for hitting a $30k multi-team parlay. Bookie said "your kind of action isn't worth it for the book. If you lose, you don't lose big enough. If you win, you destroy my numbers"
4) At a subsequent book, I was down $10k (mind you I was less disciplined then, and betting without sound analysis, and also betting straight up). I then hit a $20k parlay. Now I expected to be kicked off... but I wasn't. Instead, two things happened. First, the longshot parlay odds were removed. Best I could get was +500. Then my parlays were all of the sudden "capped". So, if I put together a 3 teamer that should pay $15k, all the sudden they payout listed at $6k. I asked the bookie, to which he replied "too much exposure if I give you true odds"
At some point after synthesizing all the above, and after an addition year of research, I came to a 3 part conclusion:
1) The point spreads in Vegas are "realized", in that they are generally accurate, and Vegas does well in balancing bets on both sides
2) Money lines are not. In a general sense, when teams are +500, the true odds (in the aggregate) are more like +350/+400.
3) That disparity opens up a opportunity window that can be exploited, and exponentially expanded upon, through the use of the parlay system.
This theory is still predicated on the idea that you pick the right upsets. Every slate, every night, has as many underdogs as favorites. Analyzing and picking the right games... the ones with the greatest potential statistical disparities, is "how the sausage is made" and a proficiency I believe I bring to the table.
To answer your last question... the only sports I'm comfortable applying this to are the NBA and NCAAB... largely due to the parity in the leagues and for the sport of basketball, and the sheer volume of opportunities available on any given basis. Sorry for the long winded answer to a short question, but hopefully that gives you some insight into "the process". As always, best of luck! Will be back tomorrow AM for the picks (may have lots of 4 team groupings based on what I'm seeing).
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absolutely amazing there's not a single troll on this tread yet 
Such a legendary entrance to the forums
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