1/26 - Longshot Parlays ($500 to win $100,000)

THE MAVS WIN!!!! THE SYSTEM WINS!!! 600%+ IN TWO DAYS!!!

Congrats to everyone here who kept the faith and believed in the system.  Not only did you win 500% today but you have a running two day total of over 600% return on your money!

It took hours and hours of analysis, but I knew there were winners in there today.  And think for a second... we were two flick of the wrists away from the grand slam $100,000 winner today... and this is only day two.

The system could now lose six consecutive groupings in a row and we would still be up.

For all the believers out there, make sure to add me as a friend on Covers, and follow @theparlaypicker (just started... no tweets just yet) to keep tabs on the system as it grows.  

Proud of each and every one of you.  Now go enjoy your Sunday night, and have some #hookersandblow courtesy of The Parlay Picker!

Let me preface this by saying that unless you are Billy Walters or The Syndicate, 99% of you who bet on games straight up will lose. Between the vig eroding your winnings and the unpredictable nature of 19 year olds throwing a ball around, statistically speaking "the house always wins".

That said, there is an alternative approach that I have been refining over the years which has achieved remarkable results, and that is the game of longshot money line round robin parlays.

To put it plainly, money lines become relatively arbitrary when a team is an 8 point dog (+325-ish) and above. If you believe a team has a 20% chance of winning and is getting +900 on a ML, there is "value" there.  In a multi team parlay, that value is assigned a multiplier. For instance, last night VMI was +2000 and Georgia Tech was +450. A $10 bet on those two teams would pay 114-1.  Upsets like this happen more than you would think, and arguably all the time (just ask Duke how it feels). This strategy contends that systematically selecting (when available) the 3 or 4 best teams with the highest "value" in their moneyline odds, then round robin parlaying all 2,3,4 team combinations, that you will, over a season, extract more value than you ever could betting straight up.  but you have to know which of the longshots to look for, and I believe, in the aggregate, I do.

I will be tracking these bets two ways... I will track performance against the spread (so if none of my four picks hit ML, but all hit spread, I would be 4-0 on the spread and 0-1 on the win). My record will be a "win" if 2 of the four teams hit.  Note a 2 team parlay with the odds I'm betting results in an average 5x payout.  So if I go 2-4 with an average $50 unit bet on a four team round robin (5 teams total, $550 per four team play) then I'm up thousands.  If 3 of those teams hit any of the nights, I'd be up $20k.  If a four teamer hit (admittedly I've only done once in my life) it could pay in excess of $100k.  Hope this makes sense to everyone.  So, without further ado, here is the write up for tonight.  BOL to all.

LMAO. WOW YOU FOOLS HAVE BEEN DECEIVED HARD. SO A RANDOM DUDE COMES ON COVERS AND SAYS HE'S UP $30K. OK, NOT EVEN BELIEVABLE (IF YOU'RE SMART). 

SO IF THIS DUDE WAS SO GOOD AT PICKING DOGS, WHY DOESN'T HE JUST SMASH THAT 1 BIG UNDERDOG MONEYLINE? LMAO. OR EVEN SMASH THE UNDERDOG JUST ON THE SPREAD? THAT'S WHAT A SHARK WOULD DO.

FOOLERY AT IT'S FINEST.

Took a while for a troll to show up

MB, let's start with you. Yes, you have been here for awhile.  Says something about you doesn't it?  Took a casual stroll down memory lane on your posts and its pretty clear that:

a) You've lost a ton of money

b) You're bitter about it and

c) You spend a lot of time trolling posts and voicing your displeasure

No real winner spends the amount of time you have over the years on the boards.  But hey... I get it.  This is what gambling does to people.  Makes them sad, old and bitter, and I feel for you man. Have you ever heard the saying "if you want to change the result, you have to change the equation"?  

At some point do you every stop and think to yourself "maybe risking multiple units every day gambling, thinking I can consistently predict outcomes better than vegas, never winning enough to cover the vig, and hoping someday things will work out for me" isn't the way you want to play anymore?  

Well let me ask you... have you ever seen the system I have proposed?  Do you understand the inherent mathematical advantage this system endeavors to exploit?  So you understand the basic statistical precepts at play here? Please click this link:

This is my hit from tonight.  This is a $60 bet paying $3000.  Everyone here who followed my picks made money... six times over so far. Have you ever hit a parlay like this before?  

Can you step outside yourself for a brief second... put your years of stone cold cynicism aside, work through the logic of the strategy, and maybe, just maybe, see that there's something here?  Maybe indulge the idea that "this isn't the same old sh*t you've seen before, and maybe you should crunch some numbers, ping it off some people, and see for yourself if it has merit? I've spent all too much time explaining the statistical advantage and I don't need to rehash here.

And @SLOPS - I know its a waste of time engaging trolls like you, but need to put my foot down once so I don't have to do this again. So you're saying haven't won $30k? I've won $6k in the last few posts on this board alone. I loathe stepping down to your level but here's a $50 ticket that paid out $11,000 just a few weeks ago: