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1/26 - Longshot Parlays ($500 to win $100,000)

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Posts: 297

Blue_Chips

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 13948

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 9:27 PM ET #226

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theparlaypicker

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 63

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 9:34 PM ET #227

!!! HOOKERS AND BLOW ALERT !!!

THE MAVS WIN!!!! THE SYSTEM WINS!!! 600%+ IN TWO DAYS!!!

Congrats to everyone here who kept the faith and believed in the system. Not only did you win 500% today but you have a running two day total of over 600% return on your money!

It took hours and hours of analysis, but I knew there were winners in there today. And think for a second... we were two flick of the wrists away from the grand slam $100,000 winner today... and this is only day two.

The system could now lose six consecutive groupings in a row and we would still be up.

For all the believers out there, make sure to add me as a friend on Covers, and follow *mod edit*(just started... no tweets just yet) to keep tabs on the system as it grows.

Proud of each and every one of you. Now go enjoy your Sunday night, and have some #hookersandblow courtesy of The Parlay Picker!

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NickSKI44

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 49

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 9:36 PM ET #228

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Westra1990

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2014

Posts: 51

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 9:38 PM ET #229

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sscott999

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 1043

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 9:42 PM ET #230

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Blazer5000

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 12

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 9:42 PM ET #231

Thanks! Im in the black again thanks to your system and picks.

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freakyfreddies

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 782

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 9:45 PM ET #232

Woo Hoo, great job

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Pandora714

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 12

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 9:49 PM ET #233

Quote Originally Posted by theparlaypicker:

!!! HOOKERS AND BLOW ALERT !!!

THE MAVS WIN!!!! THE SYSTEM WINS!!! 600%+ IN TWO DAYS!!!

Congrats to everyone here who kept the faith and believed in the system. Not only did you win 500% today but you have a running two day total of over 600% return on your money!

It took hours and hours of analysis, but I knew there were winners in there today. And think for a second... we were two flick of the wrists away from the grand slam $100,000 winner today... and this is only day two.

The system could now lose six consecutive groupings in a row and we would still be up.

For all the believers out there, make sure to add me as a friend on Covers, and follow @theparlaypicker (just started... no tweets just yet) to keep tabs on the system as it grows.

Proud of each and every one of you. Now go enjoy your Sunday night, and have some #hookersandblow courtesy of The Parlay Picker!

I have more than faith in your system after the past two days .

Thank you again for leading us to the light.

I'm going to enjoy a cold beer and celebrate with the fiancé.

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theparlaypicker

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 63

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 9:49 PM ET #234

Thanks everyone! And don't forget to add me as a friend and follow me on Twitter @theparlaypicker

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pinoy808

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2012

Posts: 216

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 9:56 PM ET #235

I like this system thanks TPP for sharing..ill follow you on twitter

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TeddyZ

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2013

Posts: 1027

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 9:59 PM ET #236

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alabamam25

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 1182

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 10:05 PM ET #237

So did u it's the 100,000$ mark? Btw sent a friend request

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theparlaypicker

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 63

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 10:15 PM ET #238

@alabam - The $100,000 mark is hit when all four teams hit... Which we were one missed free throw on one game and a tip in on another from hitting. Still, will gladly take the big win tonight.

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MBDAN

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2015

Posts: 3181

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 10:15 PM ET #239

I can clearly see where this is going.

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theparlaypicker

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 63

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 10:20 PM ET #240

@mbdan - And where is that?

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Westra1990

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2014

Posts: 51

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 10:22 PM ET #241

To Hookers & Blow town

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Francoliah

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 163

Posted: Jan. 29, 2017 - 11:28 PM ET #242

Nice system Parlaypicker. Any small advice on the "sausage", the methods for finding value in a dog. How did you come up with the Mavs? Genius buddy!

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slops

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2009

Posts: 1151

Posted: Jan. 30, 2017 - 12:00 AM ET #243

Quote Originally Posted by theparlaypicker:

Figured its time hop online and start posting my picks. Im up $30,000 for the season and the folks around me say I need to get into handicapping.

Let me preface this by saying that unless you are Billy Walters or The Syndicate, 99% of you who bet on games straight up will lose. Between the vig eroding your winnings and the unpredictable nature of 19 year olds throwing a ball around, statistically speaking "the house always wins".

That said, there is an alternative approach that I have been refining over the years which has achieved remarkable results, and that is the game of longshot money line round robin parlays.

To put it plainly, money lines become relatively arbitrary when a team is an 8 point dog (+325-ish) and above. If you believe a team has a 20% chance of winning and is getting +900 on a ML, there is "value" there. In a multi team parlay, that value is assigned a multiplier. For instance, last night VMI was +2000 and Georgia Tech was +450. A $10 bet on those two teams would pay 114-1. Upsets like this happen more than you would think, and arguably all the time (just ask Duke how it feels). This strategy contends that systematically selecting (when available) the 3 or 4 best teams with the highest "value" in their moneyline odds, then round robin parlaying all 2,3,4 team combinations, that you will, over a season, extract more value than you ever could betting straight up. but you have to know which of the longshots to look for, and I believe, in the aggregate, I do.

I will be tracking these bets two ways... I will track performance against the spread (so if none of my four picks hit ML, but all hit spread, I would be 4-0 on the spread and 0-1 on the win). My record will be a "win" if 2 of the four teams hit. Note a 2 team parlay with the odds I'm betting results in an average 5x payout. So if I go 2-4 with an average $50 unit bet on a four team round robin (5 teams total, $550 per four team play) then I'm up thousands. If 3 of those teams hit any of the nights, I'd be up $20k. If a four teamer hit (admittedly I've only done once in my life) it could pay in excess of $100k. Hope this makes sense to everyone. So, without further ado, here is the write up for tonight. BOL to all.

LMAO. WOW YOU FOOLS HAVE BEEN DECEIVED HARD. SO A RANDOM DUDE COMES ON COVERS AND SAYS HE'S UP $30K. OK, NOT EVEN BELIEVABLE (IF YOU'RE SMART).

SO IF THIS DUDE WAS SO GOOD AT PICKING DOGS, WHY DOESN'T HE JUST SMASH THAT 1 BIG UNDERDOG MONEYLINE? LMAO. OR EVEN SMASH THE UNDERDOG JUST ON THE SPREAD? THAT'S WHAT A SHARK WOULD DO.

FOOLERY AT IT'S FINEST.

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Quote Originally Posted by theparlaypicker:

Figured its time hop online and start posting my picks. Im up $30,000 for the season and the folks around me say I need to get into handicapping.

Let me preface this by saying that unless you are Billy Walters or The Syndicate, 99% of you who bet on games straight up will lose. Between the vig eroding your winnings and the unpredictable nature of 19 year olds throwing a ball around, statistically speaking "the house always wins".

That said, there is an alternative approach that I have been refining over the years which has achieved remarkable results, and that is the game of longshot money line round robin parlays.

To put it plainly, money lines become relatively arbitrary when a team is an 8 point dog (+325-ish) and above. If you believe a team has a 20% chance of winning and is getting +900 on a ML, there is "value" there. In a multi team parlay, that value is assigned a multiplier. For instance, last night VMI was +2000 and Georgia Tech was +450. A $10 bet on those two teams would pay 114-1. Upsets like this happen more than you would think, and arguably all the time (just ask Duke how it feels). This strategy contends that systematically selecting (when available) the 3 or 4 best teams with the highest "value" in their moneyline odds, then round robin parlaying all 2,3,4 team combinations, that you will, over a season, extract more value than you ever could betting straight up. but you have to know which of the longshots to look for, and I believe, in the aggregate, I do.

I will be tracking these bets two ways... I will track performance against the spread (so if none of my four picks hit ML, but all hit spread, I would be 4-0 on the spread and 0-1 on the win). My record will be a "win" if 2 of the four teams hit. Note a 2 team parlay with the odds I'm betting results in an average 5x payout. So if I go 2-4 with an average $50 unit bet on a four team round robin (5 teams total, $550 per four team play) then I'm up thousands. If 3 of those teams hit any of the nights, I'd be up $20k. If a four teamer hit (admittedly I've only done once in my life) it could pay in excess of $100k. Hope this makes sense to everyone. So, without further ado, here is the write up for tonight. BOL to all.

LMAO. WOW YOU FOOLS HAVE BEEN DECEIVED HARD. SO A RANDOM DUDE COMES ON COVERS AND SAYS HE'S UP $30K. OK, NOT EVEN BELIEVABLE (IF YOU'RE SMART).

SO IF THIS DUDE WAS SO GOOD AT PICKING DOGS, WHY DOESN'T HE JUST SMASH THAT 1 BIG UNDERDOG MONEYLINE? LMAO. OR EVEN SMASH THE UNDERDOG JUST ON THE SPREAD? THAT'S WHAT A SHARK WOULD DO.

FOOLERY AT IT'S FINEST.

StacyLeigh

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 4

Posted: Jan. 30, 2017 - 12:13 AM ET #244

Quote Originally Posted by slops:

LMAO. WOW YOU FOOLS HAVE BEEN DECEIVED HARD. SO A RANDOM DUDE COMES ON COVERS AND SAYS HE'S UP $30K. OK, NOT EVEN BELIEVABLE (IF YOU'RE SMART).

SO IF THIS DUDE WAS SO GOOD AT PICKING DOGS, WHY DOESN'T HE JUST SMASH THAT 1 BIG UNDERDOG MONEYLINE? LMAO. OR EVEN SMASH THE UNDERDOG JUST ON THE SPREAD? THAT'S WHAT A SHARK WOULD DO.

FOOLERY AT IT'S FINEST.

Took a while for a troll to show up

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monstergrit

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 4606

Posted: Jan. 30, 2017 - 12:14 AM ET #245

nice hit man. you earned a lot more money than 90% of the humans walking around on this planet and thats something to be stoked on. thanks for sharing with the rest of it. BOL on the hookers n blow cash

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MBDAN

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2015

Posts: 3181

Posted: Jan. 30, 2017 - 12:20 AM ET #246

Quote Originally Posted by theparlaypicker:

@mbdan - And where is that?

Well sad to say I've been around here awhile and have seen many capers come and go. It always starts with the Twitter account being shown then there will be some sort of 'drama ' that occurs, which will 'upset' you. After this, you will say you can't put up with all the trolls here and that if people want your picks they can folllow you on twitter...very soon after that you will ask for a small payment.

No big deal to me. But I do always enjoy watching the sheep slurp the 'new hot capper' or 'new system capper'. It's all entertainment to me.

Maybe you'll prove me wrong?! Either way, again, it's really no big deal to me.

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slops

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2009

Posts: 1151

Posted: Jan. 30, 2017 - 12:24 AM ET #247

Quote Originally Posted by StacyLeigh:

IT'S NOT TROLLING.

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Lightinthedark

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 132

Posted: Jan. 30, 2017 - 12:29 AM ET #248

I tried some of these plays Saturday and I hit! I hit an alright one and lost a grand slam with LMU losing but still profited..today Sunday I played the system the way it's designed and came up big thanks a lot picker nice work much respect to you I will be following and reaping benefits along you guys that have faith in this ?????? BOL to all

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theparlaypicker

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 63

Posted: Jan. 30, 2017 - 1:00 AM ET #249

@MBDAN + @SLOPS - Was only a matter of time before the trolls came out of the wood work. I've been expecting you! Welcome to the party.

MB, let's start with you. Yes, you have been here for awhile. Says something about you doesn't it? Took a casual stroll down memory lane on your posts and its pretty clear that:

a) You've lost a ton of money

b) You're bitter about it and

c) You spend a lot of time trolling posts and voicing your displeasure

No real winner spends the amount of time you have over the years on the boards. But hey... I get it. This is what gambling does to people. Makes them sad, old and bitter, and I feel for you man. Have you ever heard the saying "if you want to change the result, you have to change the equation"?

At some point do you every stop and think to yourself "maybe risking multiple units every day gambling, thinking I can consistently predict outcomes better than vegas, never winning enough to cover the vig, and hoping someday things will work out for me" isn't the way you want to play anymore?

Well let me ask you... have you ever seen the system I have proposed? Do you understand the inherent mathematical advantage this system endeavors to exploit? So you understand the basic statistical precepts at play here? Please click this link:

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/70fe003c0Z5aDFnV093dDFhWnBsSjloaFhYQT09/r/169892/

This is my hit from tonight. This is a $60 bet paying $3000. Everyone here who followed my picks made money... six times over so far. Have you ever hit a parlay like this before?

Can you step outside yourself for a brief second... put your years of stone cold cynicism aside, work through the logic of the strategy, and maybe, just maybe, see that there's something here? Maybe indulge the idea that "this isn't the same old sh*t you've seen before, and maybe you should crunch some numbers, ping it off some people, and see for yourself if it has merit? I've spent all too much time explaining the statistical advantage and I don't need to rehash here.

And @SLOPS - I know its a waste of time engaging trolls like you, but need to put my foot down once so I don't have to do this again. So you're saying haven't won $30k? I've won $6k in the last few posts on this board alone. I loathe stepping down to your level but here's a $50 ticket that paid out $11,000 just a few weeks ago:

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/4d2ea8bUVFYbGg0ZTJndzNlQ2llMG5uSUp0Zz09

Have you ever won $11,000 on a bet? Ever? I just did, and only risked $40. So look... If you want to keep clogging the board with your bullshit then be my guest... but for the people who are sick of losing... who want to risk less, to win potentially more.. can you maybe give them a shot to do so in peace and find some other folks to annoy?

To the rest of you, sorry for the rant... will be the first, and last, time I engage! For those who want to have constructive dialogues our have questions about the system... I'm here to help. Night to all, and see you soon.

Just a quick FYI... not many games on the slate, so looks like we will pick back up on the action come Tuesday.

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@MBDAN + @SLOPS - Was only a matter of time before the trolls came out of the wood work. I've been expecting you! Welcome to the party.

MB, let's start with you. Yes, you have been here for awhile. Says something about you doesn't it? Took a casual stroll down memory lane on your posts and its pretty clear that:

a) You've lost a ton of money

b) You're bitter about it and

c) You spend a lot of time trolling posts and voicing your displeasure

No real winner spends the amount of time you have over the years on the boards. But hey... I get it. This is what gambling does to people. Makes them sad, old and bitter, and I feel for you man. Have you ever heard the saying "if you want to change the result, you have to change the equation"?

At some point do you every stop and think to yourself "maybe risking multiple units every day gambling, thinking I can consistently predict outcomes better than vegas, never winning enough to cover the vig, and hoping someday things will work out for me" isn't the way you want to play anymore?

Well let me ask you... have you ever seen the system I have proposed? Do you understand the inherent mathematical advantage this system endeavors to exploit? So you understand the basic statistical precepts at play here? Please click this link:

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/70fe003c0Z5aDFnV093dDFhWnBsSjloaFhYQT09/r/169892/

This is my hit from tonight. This is a $60 bet paying $3000. Everyone here who followed my picks made money... six times over so far. Have you ever hit a parlay like this before?

Can you step outside yourself for a brief second... put your years of stone cold cynicism aside, work through the logic of the strategy, and maybe, just maybe, see that there's something here? Maybe indulge the idea that "this isn't the same old sh*t you've seen before, and maybe you should crunch some numbers, ping it off some people, and see for yourself if it has merit? I've spent all too much time explaining the statistical advantage and I don't need to rehash here.

And @SLOPS - I know its a waste of time engaging trolls like you, but need to put my foot down once so I don't have to do this again. So you're saying haven't won $30k? I've won $6k in the last few posts on this board alone. I loathe stepping down to your level but here's a $50 ticket that paid out $11,000 just a few weeks ago:

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/4d2ea8bUVFYbGg0ZTJndzNlQ2llMG5uSUp0Zz09

Have you ever won $11,000 on a bet? Ever? I just did, and only risked $40. So look... If you want to keep clogging the board with your bullshit then be my guest... but for the people who are sick of losing... who want to risk less, to win potentially more.. can you maybe give them a shot to do so in peace and find some other folks to annoy?

To the rest of you, sorry for the rant... will be the first, and last, time I engage! For those who want to have constructive dialogues our have questions about the system... I'm here to help. Night to all, and see you soon.

Just a quick FYI... not many games on the slate, so looks like we will pick back up on the action come Tuesday.

slops

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2009

Posts: 1151

Posted: Jan. 30, 2017 - 1:14 AM ET #250

Quote Originally Posted by theparlaypicker:

@MBDAN + @SLOPS - Was only a matter of time before the trolls came out of the wood work. I've been expecting you! Welcome to the party.

MB, let's start with you. Yes, you have been here for awhile. Says something about you doesn't it? Took a casual stroll down memory lane on your posts and its pretty clear that:

a) You've lost a ton of money

b) You're bitter about it and

c) You spend a lot of time trolling posts and voicing your displeasure

No real winner spends the amount of time you have over the years on the boards. But hey... I get it. This is what gambling does to people. Makes them sad, old and bitter, and I feel for you man. Have you ever heard the saying "if you want to change the result, you have to change the equation"?

At some point do you every stop and think to yourself "maybe risking multiple units every day gambling, thinking I can consistently predict outcomes better than vegas, never winning enough to cover the vig, and hoping someday things will work out for me" isn't the way you want to play anymore?

Well let me ask you... have you ever seen the system I have proposed? Do you understand the inherent mathematical advantage this system endeavors to exploit? So you understand the basic statistical precepts at play here? Please click this link:

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/70fe003c0Z5aDFnV093dDFhWnBsSjloaFhYQT09/r/169892/

This is my hit from tonight. This is a $60 bet paying $3000. Everyone here who followed my picks made money... six times over so far. Have you ever hit a parlay like this before?

Can you step outside yourself for a brief second... put your years of stone cold cynicism aside, work through the logic of the strategy, and maybe, just maybe, see that there's something here? Maybe indulge the idea that "this isn't the same old sh*t you've seen before, and maybe you should crunch some numbers, ping it off some people, and see for yourself if it has merit? I've spent all too much time explaining the statistical advantage and I don't need to rehash here.

And @SLOPS - I know its a waste of time engaging trolls like you, but need to put my foot down once so I don't have to do this again. So you're saying haven't won $30k? I've won $6k in the last few posts on this board alone. I loathe stepping down to your level but here's a $50 ticket that paid out $11,000 just a few weeks ago:

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/4d2ea8bUVFYbGg0ZTJndzNlQ2llMG5uSUp0Zz09

Have you ever won $11,000 on a bet? Ever? I just did, and only risked $40. So look... If you want to keep clogging the board with your bullshit then be my guest... but for the people who are sick of losing... who want to risk less, to win potentially more.. can you maybe give them a shot to do so in peace and find some other folks to annoy?

To the rest of you, sorry for the rant... will be the first, and last, time I engage! For those who want to have constructive dialogues our have questions about the system... I'm here to help. Night to all, and see you soon.

Just a quick FYI... not many games on the slate, so looks like we will pick back up on the action come Tuesday.

I'M NOT TROLLING AT ALL YOU FOOL. THOSE LINKS DON'T MEAN ANYTHING. I CAN EASILY FAKE TICKETS ON HERE AS WELL.

WHY ARE YOU DUCKING MY QUESTION? WHY DON'T YOU JUST SMASH THAT UNDERDOG MONEYLINE OR TAKE THE POINTS SINCE "Figured its time hop online and start posting my picks. Im up $30,000 for the season and the folks around me say I need to get into handicapping. "

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO