Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units
2011 MLB Playoffs:
1 - 2 @ 0% for -1.20 Units
Mon 10/03
#1: Texas Rangers +118
I like the way Colby Lewis has pitched lately. For the month of September his xFIP is 3.59, lowest of any months this year with a 3.63 K/BB ratio. In his last 2 starts against the Rays he's allowed 6 hits and 0 ER's in 13 innings of work. Against a Rays lineup which is average against 'right-handed' pitchers, there is no reason not to think that Lewis can't be sharp again in this outing. Opposite Lewis is Price, who has been struggling a bit lately. His xFIP of 3.74 in September is still pretty solid but his 2.13 K/BB ratio is the lowest this year and 4.28 BB/9 is pretty troubling. In Price's last 2 starts he's allowed 11 runs (7 ER's but the rest were due to HIS errors) on 10 hits with 3 HR's. He'll be facing a Rangers team against which he is 0-5 in his career with a 5.48 ERA and 1.4 WHIP. Rangers are the 3rd best offensive team against lefties and I see them having success against Price tonight. Rangers are the play.
#2: Detroit Tigers -125
In the first game of this series I've backed CC and the Yankees at home. Of course the game got suspended to a later day and my wager was cancelled. Well today, I'm backing the Tigers with the same pitchers on the mound. The question is why? Is home-field really that important? In my opinion, yes it is. Check out Sabathia's last 3 starts in Detroit:
04/27/2009: 8 innings / 6 hits / 4 ER's / 1 HR / Result: Lost 4-2
05/13/2010: 6 innings / 9 hits / 6 ER's / 2 HR / Result: Lost 6-0
05/03/2011: 7 innints / 10 hits / 4 ER's / 0 HR / Result: Lost 4-2
It's safe to say that he's struggled a bit playing in Comerica Park. At the same time he's been much better against the Tigers when facing them in Yankee stadium. Is this just a 'random' fluctuation or is there something to it? Not sure as the sample size is pretty small. But what I do know is that the Tigers have had the 2nd best offense and the 4th best bullpen in the last 30 days of the season. Comparatively, Yankees' offense was 15th during this span and their bullpen ranked 28th (sure they didn't use some of their best relievers in a couple of games during the stretch). That's part of the reason why New York had twice as many losses than the Tigers in the month of September (12 to 6). I like Detroit's chances in this home game behind Verlander.
Good luck!
=========================================
Updated records:
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
----------------------------------------------------
TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units
2011 MLB Playoffs:
1 - 2 @ 0% for -1.20 Units
Mon 10/03
#1: Texas Rangers +118
I like the way Colby Lewis has pitched lately. For the month of September his xFIP is 3.59, lowest of any months this year with a 3.63 K/BB ratio. In his last 2 starts against the Rays he's allowed 6 hits and 0 ER's in 13 innings of work. Against a Rays lineup which is average against 'right-handed' pitchers, there is no reason not to think that Lewis can't be sharp again in this outing. Opposite Lewis is Price, who has been struggling a bit lately. His xFIP of 3.74 in September is still pretty solid but his 2.13 K/BB ratio is the lowest this year and 4.28 BB/9 is pretty troubling. In Price's last 2 starts he's allowed 11 runs (7 ER's but the rest were due to HIS errors) on 10 hits with 3 HR's. He'll be facing a Rangers team against which he is 0-5 in his career with a 5.48 ERA and 1.4 WHIP. Rangers are the 3rd best offensive team against lefties and I see them having success against Price tonight. Rangers are the play.
#2: Detroit Tigers -125
In the first game of this series I've backed CC and the Yankees at home. Of course the game got suspended to a later day and my wager was cancelled. Well today, I'm backing the Tigers with the same pitchers on the mound. The question is why? Is home-field really that important? In my opinion, yes it is. Check out Sabathia's last 3 starts in Detroit:
04/27/2009: 8 innings / 6 hits / 4 ER's / 1 HR / Result: Lost 4-2
05/13/2010: 6 innings / 9 hits / 6 ER's / 2 HR / Result: Lost 6-0
05/03/2011: 7 innints / 10 hits / 4 ER's / 0 HR / Result: Lost 4-2
It's safe to say that he's struggled a bit playing in Comerica Park. At the same time he's been much better against the Tigers when facing them in Yankee stadium. Is this just a 'random' fluctuation or is there something to it? Not sure as the sample size is pretty small. But what I do know is that the Tigers have had the 2nd best offense and the 4th best bullpen in the last 30 days of the season. Comparatively, Yankees' offense was 15th during this span and their bullpen ranked 28th (sure they didn't use some of their best relievers in a couple of games during the stretch). That's part of the reason why New York had twice as many losses than the Tigers in the month of September (12 to 6). I like Detroit's chances in this home game behind Verlander.
Good luck!
=========================================
Updated records:
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
----------------------------------------------------
TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390
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