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Bodio's MLB Mon 10/03 (Playoffs)

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Lucas2011

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 46

Posted: Oct. 4, 2011 - 12:47 AM ET #76

Thanks Bod. Great night. Keep em coming.

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Oct. 4, 2011 - 12:50 AM ET #77

Quote Originally Posted by composite:

QUOTE Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units

2011 MLB Playoffs:
1 - 2 @ 0% for -1.20 Units

Mon 10/03

#2: Detroit Tigers -125

In the first game of this series I've backed CC and the Yankees at home. Of course the game got suspended to a later day and my wager was cancelled. Well today, I'm backing the Tigers with the same pitchers on the mound. The question is why? Is home-field really that important? In my opinion, yes it is. Check out Sabathia's last 3 starts in Detroit:

04/27/2009: 8 innings / 6 hits / 4 ER's / 1 HR / Result: Lost 4-2
05/13/2010: 6 innings / 9 hits / 6 ER's / 2 HR / Result: Lost 6-0
05/03/2011: 7 innints / 10 hits / 4 ER's / 0 HR / Result: Lost 4-2

It's safe to say that he's struggled a bit playing in Comerica Park. At the same time he's been much better against the Tigers when facing them in Yankee stadium. Is this just a 'random' fluctuation or is there something to it? Not sure as the sample size is pretty small. But what I do know is that the Tigers have had the 2nd best offense and the 4th best bullpen in the last 30 days of the season. Comparatively, Yankees' offense was 15th during this span and their bullpen ranked 28th (sure they didn't use some of their best relievers in a couple of games during the stretch). That's part of the reason why New York had twice as many losses than the Tigers in the month of September (12 to 6). I like Detroit's chances in this home game behind Verlander.

Good luck!

Last month you vehemently argued that 30 ABs against one pitcher (Capuano of the NYMs) was too small of a sample size to determine whether the StL Cards bats (Pujols, Berkman, etc.) had an edge on him.

Now you're saying that 3 games @ Comerica - over a 3 year stretch - may be sufficient to determine that CC pitches poorly there?

Sounds like someone's using any argument to get the warm, fuzzy feeling to support the Tigers over the Yanks.

BTW, you were right. I agree that NYY were trying hard to beat the Rays those last 3 games.

I'm on the Tigers this game, so BOL to you. But I was also on the Tigers in G1.

Last month you vehemently argued that 30 ABs against one pitcher (Capuano of the NYMs) was too small of a sample size to determine whether the StL Cards bats (Pujols, Berkman, etc.) had an edge on him.

Now you're saying that 3 games @ Comerica - over a 3 year stretch - may be sufficient to determine that CC pitches poorly there?

Sounds like someone's using any argument to get the warm, fuzzy feeling to support the Tigers over the Yanks.

BTW, you were right. I agree that NYY were trying hard to beat the Rays those last 3 games.

I'm on the Tigers this game, so BOL to you. But I was also on the Tigers in G1.

What?!? Did you miss the part where I said that the 'sample size is small' and nothing can truly be determined from it? This is the reason for the play:

But what I do know is that the Tigers have had the 2nd best offense and the 4th best bullpen in the last 30 days of the season. Comparatively, Yankees' offense was 15th during this span and their bullpen ranked 28th (sure they didn't use some of their best relievers in a couple of games during the stretch). That's part of the reason why New York had twice as many losses than the Tigers in the month of September (12 to 6). I like Detroit's chances in this home game behind Verlander.

Next time read, think, than think some more prior to responding. Thanks.