COUNTDOWN

@GamblinDAWG

Yeah Phil Steele showing Clem's 2nd string D-Line w 1st tm AA Tyler Davis on it lol he's obvi part of the heavy rotation but someone at Clem musta given him that depth order so idk thats wild .. plus 3 or 4 deep of top DL prospects .. Think Phil might list them a top 5 DL even w out the listed starters .. INSANE .... Unsure about the rest of the D but Tech's offense is gunna be under hellfire all game from the front 4 ..  

Think we see a few reps from QB Klubnik too maybe not even waiting for mop up duty ..  and that actually doesn't worry me much at all .. might just need to prove on the field that he's better than DJ ... other than QB I don't think they'd change out the offense much either they need them to start gellin and get that identity back after last year .. Shipley is the real deal .. WR's maybe not elite as a unit, I heard they don't have a good mix of diff types of WR's, but this aint the game I'd worry about that problem, they're all big guys and GT's DB unit suuuuucked bad last year givin up 65% passing 300 yds/gm in conf .. besides Kennesaw they had 1 pick all year .. against Duke .. eek .. 

Otherwise Furman on deck feels good too ... and kinda expecting a no F-around attitude after all the close calls last year that started w GT.. 1 yd short of possibly a game tying TD .. 

Clemson with new offense and defense coordinators and d-line coach. I agree though should be a whomping.

BA

33 days - 11 hours - 28 minutes boys .............

LINKS

POWER RATINGS

2022

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/33963700/college-football-updated-sp+-preseason-projections-2022

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2022-college-football-betting-power-ratings

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

https://masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/games

2021

Kenny White https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-461

Brad Powers https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-468

Gold Sheet https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-468

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

https://thepowerrank.com/college-football/bowl-subdivision-rankings/

http://www.kambour.net/football.html

NOTE: most useful / closest to Vegas
SP+ >> Kenny White >> Action Network (Collin Wilson) >> Brad Powers >> FPI (ESPN) >> Sagarin >> Massey (Gold Sheet just mirrors LV numbers)

STATS

http://www.cfbstats.com/2021/national/index.html

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fei/overall/2020

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/team-stats/

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs

https://www.cfbanalytics.com/ ???

ATS

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/database

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/

GENERAL

https://12ft.io/
* bypassing paywall

https://ncsports.com/schedule-logs/

https://linesheet.com/
* linesheets

http://lsufootball.net/tvschedule.htm

https://fbschedules.com/college-football-schedule/#

https://www.pff.com/college

http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/2021/index.shtml

https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/

https://athlonsports.com/college-football

https://www.scoresandodds.com/ncaaf

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/

https://www.vsin.com/ncaafb/

http://www.statfox.com/cfb/teamreport.asp?sortby=team

https://collegefootballnews.com/

https://www.goldsheet.com/index.php

http://www.nationalchamps.net/

http://hosted.stats.com/cfb/front.asp

https://www.yardbarker.com/college_football

https://fbschedules.com/college-football-schedule/#

https://footballscoop.com/news

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football

http://www.winsipedia.com/team

INJURIES / SUSPENSIONS / PORTAL

https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/TransferPortalTop/

https://legacy.donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/

https://content.sportsdirectinc.com/football/ncaaf-injuries.aspx?page=/data/ncaaf/injury/injuries.html

FCS

https://herosports.com/college-football/fcs/

https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fcs

https://www.college-sports-journal.com/category/college-sports-journal/d-i/fcs-football/

https://fcsinsider.com/

https://www.collegefootballpoll.com/fcs/rankings/

https://www.versussportssimulator.com/FCS/ratings

https://www.reddit.com/r/fcs/

Power Ratings - most of you guys use the WRONG ones - wrong meaning too far off Vegas' numbers, or of little *predictive* value.

   eg.  Steele DOES NOT PUBLISH his power rankings - the plus minus crap is simply based on SOS and score differential - it may coincidentally ... be close at times, but has no value to a handicapper. His Power Poll is actually his PR - but without the numbers ha.

      Sagarin and Massey used to be decent - now horrible, especially early. Use for FCS, because that's all you got basically - FBS maybe OK later in the year. FOR RECREATIONAL GUYS - sure Sagarin is fine, and much better than nothing.

HOW DO I KNOW? - you might be wondering ......

   * because for say about 5 years - I, out of curiosity, and to see how they compare to my own - used these to compare to Vegas odds, FOR EVERY GAME PLAYED. Sagarin used to be closest to Vegas, after the Gold Sheet - not anymore.

Now Bill C's SP+ is by far the best - available with ESPN+. The only problem (EARLY) is teams that have gone thru a ton of changes are often off a bit, until they've played a few games.  So right now we have Michigan at #4 / OU at #5 / Cinn #11 / USC #51. The reason why is because the whole point is to be OBJECTIVE - trust the analytics. So he may know they are wrong (subjectively) but his numbers can't back it up. So (we) make the adjustments ourselves. SIMPLE.

     $$  BTW - to QUANTIFY how a given team may have gotten better, or worse - you can compare the recent numbers with last years closing. Maybe use for your own - or to just get a general idea.   eg. - Texas +4 / Iowa State -10 / TCU +7 / Georgia -5 / LSU +6 / Ohio St  same / FSU +5 / Tulane +5 ..... 

The next best (up now) is probably Collin Wilson's .... up at Action Network - free and current. ESPN's FPI is now much better - very few teams are off, unlike before. The others you can steal ha - thru RX Rubber Room or SBR. I put links above for last years. I would say Kenny White is 2nd best - with Powers and Wilson pretty close behind. Gold Sheet is the actual closest, but really just mirrors Vegas - so useful for line guessing only....    

Leans  - little work done

Georgia State

TCU

Boise

MTS

Clemson

Terps

FAU at Ohio

Fla

Fla St

NW ?? (love NW ha)

Memphis?

WV (at Pitt)

C Mich? (Gundy tough vs non-conf tho)

Illinois (at Indy)

Tulane

Hawaii (vs WKU)

From TEAM RANKINGS (last 5 yrs)

FACT. Some coaches take non-conference games seriously (Jimbo/Gundy) - some do not. Some see them as scrimmages. Some desperately need the W's to keep their job - be bowl eligible.

BEST

                       ats          %       MOV       ats

Texas A&M       16-4-0   80.0%   23.2    +3.8
Oklahoma St    14-4-0   77.8%    18.4   +4.1
Maryland         10-3-0   76.9%    22.7   +12.7
Fresno St         13-5-1   72.2%    13.1   +8.7
Texas               12-5-0   70.6%    19.2   +8.7
Air Force          14-6-0    70.0%    11.2   +6.0
UNLV               11-5-0    68.8%    -3.5    +1.4
S Methodist      14-7-0    66.7%    8.8    +1.1
Purdue             10-5-0    66.7%    3.7    +3.0
Iowa                10-5-1    66.7%   15.5   +6.0
N Illinois           12-6-1    66.7%   -8.5    -1.5
Central FL         13-7-0     65.0%  21.5   +6.7
Utah State         13-7-0     65.0%   7.6    +5.1
Texas Tech          9-5-1      64.3%  17.6   +4.3
Minnesota           9-5-1      64.3%  15.3   +5.9

WORST

Kansas       3-10-0    23.1%    1.7    +1.4
GA Tech      4-13-0    23.5%   -8.5   -10.4
Miami (OH) 5-13-0     27.8%  -9.8     -6.4
USC            4-10-0    28.6%  -4.1    -7.4
UCLA           4-9-0     30.8%   -4.5    -5.8
New Mexico 5-11-0    31.3%  -4.8    -5.3
E Carolina    5-11-1   31.3%   -7.5    -4.4
Rice             5-11-1   31.3%  -24.9   -7.7
LA Monroe    6-12-1   33.3%  -17.9   -3.2
Arizona St     5-10-1   33.3%    4.8    -4.5
Tennessee     6-12-0   33.3%  16.7    -2.3
Illinois            4-8-1    33.3%   1.3    -1.6
San Jose St    6-12-0   33.3%  -12.7   -5.3

TX El Paso      7-13-1    35.0%  -14.0  -1.4
Louisville       7-13-0     35.0%   3.6   -6.0

$ adjust for coaching changes - took Duke out - Cutcliffe was great in NC games.

I dont put alot of stock in power ratings but 3 thumbs up and a  for your time and effort. 

@bookieassassin

"Sagarin and Massey used to be decent - now horrible, especially early."

Dead on!

Sagarin horrible last yr week 1 on Big Ten games. Coming off Covid yr maybe hurt but still off.

i.e. Had Northwestern -17 to Mich St.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/power-ratings-vs-point-spreads-for-week-1-of-college-football-2431673/

Best thread of the year as always .. pick out a few sites and learn something new every year, find a new source of info .. 

I think the struggle for most gamblers, me included is once we spot the better / worse team and feel great about them (or bad if fading) and results are solid then I tend to keep overplaying them thinking they still have value even when I know that vegas has made adjustments .. so many tricks and traps to fall into when we don't stay grounded into some reality, and leveraging someone else's good set of power ratings can help us do that .. if not then we fall into all the traps, we're quick to abandon a team if they don't make us money right away .. that might be after some noncon game or a team w massive difference in strength which doesn't really indicate how good/bad our teams are .. and the sickest behaviors of all: betting / fading teams after a couple hot/cold weeks usually right after we saw their very best or worst performance of the year ..  same for totals .. oh man points bonanza every week w this team, total will hit 75 by halftime lol .. or read Phil all summer and play all our sure things layin the big chalk week 1 and get demolished .. my only lock of the year used to be setting off week 1 plutonium bankroll bombs lol  .. Oh and if we actually win a few big games early in the year playing all stupid then we really get in trouble .. so many psychological mind F traps been laid for us on top of that vig .. only way to navigate around them is ditching the 'gut first' approach and using quality assessment tools first and going from there .. go w the gut last and maybe we have a chance of not be bettin coin flips ..  

Teamrankings such a good resource, so much stuff on their main site its easy to get lost in there ..

Far and away, THE BEST TOOL (totally free and hard to find elsewhere) is under the BetIQ tab (see top of the page, not on the main TR site) is the TOTALLY AWESOME Custom Trends Tool link below.. fun to play with the query tool but next level gangstas can, in like half hour, copy down 10 or more years of SU/ATS/Total results in excel and have alot more fun dialin up the trend research ..  not just W/L info but by margins which is often ignored when looking at trends .. so much you can do from there .. look over W/L streaks by team and get an idea (before playing all those sure thing locks) what sorta teams have a chance of gettin hot n stayin hot and which teams vegas will move at light speed trying to bust now that everyone is pouring their money on them .. won't take long to at least get the big picture .. also very easy to calc team totals and those results .. Breaking totals down by the team projection and result is soooo much more meaningful than the game totals and you'll never hear any of these experts mention TT trends... and why should anyone pay attn to such granularities, its not like the projected scores are the whole basis for the spread and total you're betting on lol.. so here's that link.. 

https://betiq.teamrankings.com/college-football/betting-trends/custom-trend-tool/

Also just found this pokin around today .. TR's season W projections also free .. this also lets us go back each year at pre-ssn and even week to week in ssn.. very easy to just copy the pre-ssn projections into excel and get a sense which teams over/under perform over time ... or look at a big picture: how did LY's performance tend to impact next years's RSW projections and how'd those results pan out .. TR's projections are obvi not the Vegas' RSW offerings but still gives us a sense how RSW's get influenced.. they also give us the historical power ratings at the time so if new to power ratings then here's a good start getting familiar looking back over time in this tool and see how they fluctuate relative to the RSW projections and the actual results .. all good stuff..  

https://betiq.teamrankings.com/college-football/predictions/

Not exactly sure who you’re talking about here as Clemson will be a top 5 team this year. Also, if you’re referring to Clemson, they were 14th last year so they were already a “top 10-15” team. 

@Bridge1

 My go to for stats, been book marked for years now. 

GREAT  Info BA….these are the angles needed to succeed. Have a great season…let’s Rock & Roll!!  

Cheers to the crotchety, wise old Kahunas. BTW, where’s good Man Winners 1941?? 

BA - Do you play Team RSW Totals or Conference Champs?  I feel I’ve graduated to Futures….although I’m unable to Truly shop the lines like the old days…my state HI prevents.

Thx for what you do for the little man… your finger on the pulse for Situational Handicapping is a Gift that’s helped me over the years.

Lets Ride Again ‘22 and where is Winners??  

Hey Wolfe ....

Winners appears to still be with us - hanging out in MLB forum....

Futures? - no way in hell I  LOAN the books $$, not only interest free ... but I pay them for the privilege? Probably better places to put your money for 4-5 months - but I haven't crunched the numbers. A local that might not ask for everything up front, if they exist - maybe ok.

26 days - 15 hours - 43 minutes boys .....

Haven't seen this posted here ? - but something to consider if betting on/against OPTION teams - is the new CUT BLOCK rule changes (not chop block Steele)

BEFORE - taking out the knees was allowed as long as it didn't come from :

      * behind / from the side / against the 'flow of the play'

      * more than 5 yds down the field.    

      * lineman OK in between the tackle box

NOW : linemen ONLY - in between the tackle box. 

            note: there are some exceptions .... eg. if a block starts high, then slides down to the knees - it's allowed = MORE REPLAYS holy shite  

SO :  before a 180 lb RB could dive at the 240 lb LB's knees - WR could do the same to CB/S. This is huge in a fast developing play.

RESULT?    I don't think I would auto-fade option teams just yet, they've been expecting this for awhile.  However the UNDER might be something to look at (esp. early in the betting cycle) - as it's gonna be more difficult to break plays beyond the 2nd level (fewer defenders on the ground)

@steponaduck

 This wasn’t always true during the HDN days, and when LSU was Thanksgiving week, but it is now. I always thought it was a waste of resources because the facility in Fayetteville is top notch. There’s a weird good ole boy handshake agreement that’s keeping this going but I think it will end soon as attendance is piss poor for these games. 

@bookieassassin

Good stuff, haven't had time to think about cut blocks yet ... I think the most widely impactful scenario w the RB blocking on a LB blitz is actually kinda safe .. per google theres an exception for stationary RB's in the backfield, but only if its head on so guess only kinda safe .. this rule also impacts defenses too, maybe most commonly if off ball LB charges in to cut down a pulling OL trying to jam up the line ... no idea how often that happens but im guessing it'll happen alot to teams I bet on and only at the most critical moments of the game lol ..  

Can't bet on Army or other heavy cut block teams till we see how they respond .. just too many times some little Army dot on the TV screen busts open a huge play in the flat going head first into a big LB or SS's knees .. part of the secret sauce how they literally "level" the playing field .. and have to count on the refs to be all over the new rule, for sure to start the ssn, and def watching a few teams extra close .. and we know refs love calling their new penalties opening weekend too just so the tv guys can explain all their new laws to us .. 

So yeah .. yay more penalties .. more commercial breaks .. zebra crews already deciding who covers most games why not go all out and let them decide who wins most games too .. 

Glad to see youre back... I did my homework this offseason so hopefully its a profitable season.  During the covid season, I couldnt justify spending 100 hrs breaking down match ups, when I wasnt convinced there would be a season.  Im really bullish on NCST, along w the acc in general... It's almost impossible to get a handle on how Clemson will perform, but they're loaded at just about every position, but QB and Oline.  I trust the oline will be better this year, but DJ was one of worst QBs in CFB.  Do you have confidence in his ability to turn it around?  Or do we See Klubnick early?  

@Bridge1

 This is just my opinion, but I have prob spent close to 100 hrs evaluating this Clemson team and their potential.... In reality, they have ONE question mark, and that happens to be DJ at QB.  Hopefully the weight loss, healed injuries, improved oline, another year in system and return of elite WR's will make him look like he did his freshman season, or at the elite 11 when every coach in attendance openly said he was way better than the others (Bryce Young, Stroud, Van Dyke, etc)  Now the Wr corps is interesting bc they might have a TE on a similar path to Michael Meyer or the TE from Georgia.  Baringstool was a serious weapon down the seam... He's a pass catching TE, and they have a phemomenal pass catching back.  The Wr's dropped off bc they were having balls thrown 8 feet over their heads, and every one was playing hurt.  Between Ngata, the Collins twins, EJ Williams, Troy Stellato, Will Taylor, and the two freshman on campus, and their WR corps rivals any program in CFB... A lot of ppl actually believe that Elliot leaving will offer just enough change that the offense isint so predictable... and when you have best defense in CFB, GT is gonna need fluke TDs to keep it within 20.

Even if DJ has another bad season, its almost a guarantee he'll play a lot better than last year, and if not good enough Klubnik isint a typical freshman QB... He has all the tools he needs to win the natty.  BT Potter is also one of top college kickers.  That can be the difference in covering or not... That Clemson team has so many players returning who werent available last year, not to mention 5-6 redshirt freshman who are game changers.  They have a chance to be most dominant team in the sport. I mean they probably beat Georgia at Georgia if DJ doesnt throw pick 6 before the half, as they were already in FG range.  

The ACC could be a really tough conference if ND, Clemson bounce back.  They have Devin Leary, Hartman, Malik Cunningham, Van Dyke, Travis, Criswell and Maye two borderline 5 stars are taking over for Howell, two #1 HS QBS at Clemson, Kedon Slovis at Pitt, Phil Jauerkovic back in BC, Armstrong is still at UVA.. It feels like some of those teams are gonna upset some teams.  Sam Hartman showed how talented he is with Wake last year, so I cant see him falling off.  Really we just need to wait to see what ND's QB and Clemson QB's look like...

@alopez14325

I've got to ask what evidence is there that Briningstool is remotely in the same category as Mayer or Bowers? Unless he's taken a monumental leap forward, he'll be TE2 behind Allen (who also isn't near as good as Mayer or Bowers). I'll wait to be proven wrong but since Leggett in 2016, Clemson has had exactly 1 tight end go over 300 yards receiving on the season.