Btw EVERYONE we don't hate in this thread, everyone is encouraged win lose or draw.
I sound opinionated sometimes and apologize in advance if anyone ever feels like I'm being insulting or whatever. I have my own ideas on things but trying to use this thread to have good discussions and iron out any kinks so I can get to $100k!
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Btw EVERYONE we don't hate in this thread, everyone is encouraged win lose or draw.
I sound opinionated sometimes and apologize in advance if anyone ever feels like I'm being insulting or whatever. I have my own ideas on things but trying to use this thread to have good discussions and iron out any kinks so I can get to $100k!
Btw the 13-6 "for the week" stat is getting to be a bit of a misnomer. It's actually since starting the system but that was more like 10 days ago, so not gonna say for the week anymore, just YTD.
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Btw the 13-6 "for the week" stat is getting to be a bit of a misnomer. It's actually since starting the system but that was more like 10 days ago, so not gonna say for the week anymore, just YTD.
The total has slowed and we knew it was suspect due to it bouncing around. Only directional move on the total was too close to tip off and might have been adjusted for the public, which is why we no-played it.
Denver is looking like it was the play after all, which is all I liked for the game all along. Sigh- not gonna be any value on anything second half either.
Go Denver
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The total has slowed and we knew it was suspect due to it bouncing around. Only directional move on the total was too close to tip off and might have been adjusted for the public, which is why we no-played it.
Denver is looking like it was the play after all, which is all I liked for the game all along. Sigh- not gonna be any value on anything second half either.
If you're convinced that the over was the play for the game, then the value is on the over second half. It was a line move and now there's good value.
I'm just not convinced that it was a play to begin with, so this is a no-play for me. Good luck guys and don't be strangers. Gonna continue with the system tomorrow.
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If you're convinced that the over was the play for the game, then the value is on the over second half. It was a line move and now there's good value.
I'm just not convinced that it was a play to begin with, so this is a no-play for me. Good luck guys and don't be strangers. Gonna continue with the system tomorrow.
You don't really throw the sharps off. If the number is off to them(each is different in how much it would make a play), they will bet it. Also, I beg to differ that they "usually" put the play in close to game time(someone stated that in your thread), it's for different reasons.
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You don't really throw the sharps off. If the number is off to them(each is different in how much it would make a play), they will bet it. Also, I beg to differ that they "usually" put the play in close to game time(someone stated that in your thread), it's for different reasons.
Hey Czech. Definitely agree with your post #101. Theres definitely intangibles to look for. Denver definitely looked like a pick earlier but when the moved back to -2 that was a no play. I've been burnt many times making an early bet because of line movement and it seems that almost everytime the line moves the other direction right before the game that the public wins. Therefore I believe Lakers might cover this game. But I had no bet either way so all is good. Lets keep workin together to bust the bookies guys. GLTA
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Hey Czech. Definitely agree with your post #101. Theres definitely intangibles to look for. Denver definitely looked like a pick earlier but when the moved back to -2 that was a no play. I've been burnt many times making an early bet because of line movement and it seems that almost everytime the line moves the other direction right before the game that the public wins. Therefore I believe Lakers might cover this game. But I had no bet either way so all is good. Lets keep workin together to bust the bookies guys. GLTA
I think I mentioned in beginning when setting out the rules for the system, that I avoid lines close to PK's. I didn't explain why though.
I made good money during the regular season taking +1 or +1.5 teams purely as fade-buster picks. But sometimes I saw reversals, like a team going from -1 to +1.
The reason I lay off of games close to PK's is because of the possibility of head fakes. My theory is that the public is going to like a -1 to -2 team pretty much all the time, but Vegas knows this also.
Say I like a team that is +1, and then the line moves in my favor (supposedly) making them -1? I make this a no-play, because I assume that Vegas knows what it's doing, and is moving this line to draw money onto my side, meaning it is not a sharp play after all.
So I made the rule to avoid lines close to pick em's, and by that I mean lines with 1.5 or so. Denver doesn't qualify under that rule, since the line was -2, but a 2-pt line is pushing it for me and the closest it can be for me to consider a system play.
The truth is those tight lines have a lot of variables, and/or intangibles saw you said, and some of the moves hit and some are head fakes, etc etc, and I just decided to avoid them all.
I'm trying to cultivate this system to produce a solid 60%+, and honestly, hopefully better, and it has so far in the reg season and (after game 1) in the post season as well.
There are a lot of plays and strategies that can be profitable, but for my intents and purposes those type games don't qualify.
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Hey Kendawg,
I think I mentioned in beginning when setting out the rules for the system, that I avoid lines close to PK's. I didn't explain why though.
I made good money during the regular season taking +1 or +1.5 teams purely as fade-buster picks. But sometimes I saw reversals, like a team going from -1 to +1.
The reason I lay off of games close to PK's is because of the possibility of head fakes. My theory is that the public is going to like a -1 to -2 team pretty much all the time, but Vegas knows this also.
Say I like a team that is +1, and then the line moves in my favor (supposedly) making them -1? I make this a no-play, because I assume that Vegas knows what it's doing, and is moving this line to draw money onto my side, meaning it is not a sharp play after all.
So I made the rule to avoid lines close to pick em's, and by that I mean lines with 1.5 or so. Denver doesn't qualify under that rule, since the line was -2, but a 2-pt line is pushing it for me and the closest it can be for me to consider a system play.
The truth is those tight lines have a lot of variables, and/or intangibles saw you said, and some of the moves hit and some are head fakes, etc etc, and I just decided to avoid them all.
I'm trying to cultivate this system to produce a solid 60%+, and honestly, hopefully better, and it has so far in the reg season and (after game 1) in the post season as well.
There are a lot of plays and strategies that can be profitable, but for my intents and purposes those type games don't qualify.
This is where I usually look back and say, okay, the line total bounced around and I knew it was fishy, so no surprise on the under. As for the side, well, see post 101, plus the fact that the line did go back to -2 pre-game.
Guys, we had indicators for every possible side on this game, it was fishy all the way around and it was a NO-PLAY. this is also why I spelled out that I only look for progressive and directional line moves.
The total went up progressively late, yes, but before that it bounced around. DISQUALIFIED.
The side went down 1/2 pt late, and before that bounced around. DISQUALIFIED.
This is where discipline comes into play, and following the system. I fully admit I can be a buster on my own, BUT IF YOU FOLLOW THE RULES YOU WILL WIN.
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As we speak it's coming in, Lakers and the under.
This is where I usually look back and say, okay, the line total bounced around and I knew it was fishy, so no surprise on the under. As for the side, well, see post 101, plus the fact that the line did go back to -2 pre-game.
Guys, we had indicators for every possible side on this game, it was fishy all the way around and it was a NO-PLAY. this is also why I spelled out that I only look for progressive and directional line moves.
The total went up progressively late, yes, but before that it bounced around. DISQUALIFIED.
The side went down 1/2 pt late, and before that bounced around. DISQUALIFIED.
This is where discipline comes into play, and following the system. I fully admit I can be a buster on my own, BUT IF YOU FOLLOW THE RULES YOU WILL WIN.
Nice win yysmer. It's much more like me to be on a +2 team than a -2 one. But then again usually the public is on the -2 one.
I still could never be on the lakers tonight, simply because everyone else was. But I explained ad nauseum why there was NO PLAY on the game.
Just because a side or total hits, or doesn't, doesn't necessarily mean it was a sharp play or not. That's subjective no matter how you slice it. Glad you won your bet though.
I think we established why there was no sharp play on this game, at least not according to my system.
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Nice win yysmer. It's much more like me to be on a +2 team than a -2 one. But then again usually the public is on the -2 one.
I still could never be on the lakers tonight, simply because everyone else was. But I explained ad nauseum why there was NO PLAY on the game.
Just because a side or total hits, or doesn't, doesn't necessarily mean it was a sharp play or not. That's subjective no matter how you slice it. Glad you won your bet though.
I think we established why there was no sharp play on this game, at least not according to my system.
If we can all help each other from making bad bets we will all have more money in our pockets at the end of the week. Great discussion on this thread guys. Keep up the good work and hopefully we can all profit at the end of the day.
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If we can all help each other from making bad bets we will all have more money in our pockets at the end of the week. Great discussion on this thread guys. Keep up the good work and hopefully we can all profit at the end of the day.
Czech, any ideas on tomorrow? I know you don't like 1.5 lines but the Clippers my man ( I know I look like a noob with my post count but I just joined, I'm 4-1 in the playoffs and overall a good record too as well as following your guide, it really helps)
The clippers! I just look at the matchups and it astounds me that Memphis would even have a chance. What do you think?
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Czech, any ideas on tomorrow? I know you don't like 1.5 lines but the Clippers my man ( I know I look like a noob with my post count but I just joined, I'm 4-1 in the playoffs and overall a good record too as well as following your guide, it really helps)
The clippers! I just look at the matchups and it astounds me that Memphis would even have a chance. What do you think?
Hey Czech which site do you use for your bet %s? I really like to have several sources. Thats why I use pregame.com and scoresandodds.com. Scoresandodds.com uses 7 of the top sportsbooks to get thier %s. Just click on betting trends at the top of the page but I would like to know what you use just so I have another comparison.
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Hey Czech which site do you use for your bet %s? I really like to have several sources. Thats why I use pregame.com and scoresandodds.com. Scoresandodds.com uses 7 of the top sportsbooks to get thier %s. Just click on betting trends at the top of the page but I would like to know what you use just so I have another comparison.
I've been having a good discussion with another member about the topic you just brought up about bet%...
Up until now, basically, I've just been using Covers data. The other member was telling me to look at a couple different sites checking real betting percentages, and then we were having a discussion about their importance.
For some reason, my system has always worked just fine off of Covers Consensus data, even though it's not real money, and we were talking about why. I don't know, but my theory on it is it shows us an honest opinion of what people like.
I'm a perfect example, because on the contests I click everything before studying the games and everything. I OFTEN pick a side and/or total on there and then bet AGAINST it later that day. I do it all the time. But most busters out there probably bet the same things they're clicking because that's what they like.
I don't know all I know it was working, but I am only recently expanding my horizons also. That's a long winded way of saying I don't know much about those other sites whatsoever but am looking to learn them also.
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Hey Kendawg,
I've been having a good discussion with another member about the topic you just brought up about bet%...
Up until now, basically, I've just been using Covers data. The other member was telling me to look at a couple different sites checking real betting percentages, and then we were having a discussion about their importance.
For some reason, my system has always worked just fine off of Covers Consensus data, even though it's not real money, and we were talking about why. I don't know, but my theory on it is it shows us an honest opinion of what people like.
I'm a perfect example, because on the contests I click everything before studying the games and everything. I OFTEN pick a side and/or total on there and then bet AGAINST it later that day. I do it all the time. But most busters out there probably bet the same things they're clicking because that's what they like.
I don't know all I know it was working, but I am only recently expanding my horizons also. That's a long winded way of saying I don't know much about those other sites whatsoever but am looking to learn them also.
What's up man welcome to the thread. We welcome all discussion from anyone interested in here. We're all here to bring down the books dude for real.
I don't know yet about tomorrow, and I only get biased when I look the night before. One of my rules of engagement is not deciding on a game til it's almost game time. That saved our (the system's, not mine lol) ASS tonight from making a play on the Denver game.
This is paramount to success guys: wait until last minute. Is so hard sometimes thinking you need to put it in but YOU DON'T. The more information the better, you don't need to worry about that potential 1/2 pt move, and you need to see those moves.
I'll check all the games tomorrow and we'll be saddling up to
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Alexsean,
What's up man welcome to the thread. We welcome all discussion from anyone interested in here. We're all here to bring down the books dude for real.
I don't know yet about tomorrow, and I only get biased when I look the night before. One of my rules of engagement is not deciding on a game til it's almost game time. That saved our (the system's, not mine lol) ASS tonight from making a play on the Denver game.
This is paramount to success guys: wait until last minute. Is so hard sometimes thinking you need to put it in but YOU DON'T. The more information the better, you don't need to worry about that potential 1/2 pt move, and you need to see those moves.
I'll check all the games tomorrow and we'll be saddling up to
Ah. I understand. I like the Clippers tomorrow and Spurs UNDER. But yep, it would be a very bad idea to bet any tonight. I am just throwing ideas out there to think about whilst in sleep.
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Ah. I understand. I like the Clippers tomorrow and Spurs UNDER. But yep, it would be a very bad idea to bet any tonight. I am just throwing ideas out there to think about whilst in sleep.
Nice win yysmer. It's much more like me to be on a +2 team than a -2 one. But then again usually the public is on the -2 one.
I still could never be on the lakers tonight, simply because everyone else was. But I explained ad nauseum why there was NO PLAY on the game.
Just because a side or total hits, or doesn't, doesn't necessarily mean it was a sharp play or not. That's subjective no matter how you slice it. Glad you won your bet though.
I think we established why there was no sharp play on this game, at least not according to my system.
I know what you are saying. Public favors always get killed by Vegas. But if you use "https://www.freesportsbet.com/scores/nba.html" you can see that the bet amount for the Lakers' game today is much lower than the last one. Vegas tend to give away the light games and take the heavy ones.
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Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
Nice win yysmer. It's much more like me to be on a +2 team than a -2 one. But then again usually the public is on the -2 one.
I still could never be on the lakers tonight, simply because everyone else was. But I explained ad nauseum why there was NO PLAY on the game.
Just because a side or total hits, or doesn't, doesn't necessarily mean it was a sharp play or not. That's subjective no matter how you slice it. Glad you won your bet though.
I think we established why there was no sharp play on this game, at least not according to my system.
I know what you are saying. Public favors always get killed by Vegas. But if you use "https://www.freesportsbet.com/scores/nba.html" you can see that the bet amount for the Lakers' game today is much lower than the last one. Vegas tend to give away the light games and take the heavy ones.
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That's about as good a start as I could hope for. Tomorrow we ride!
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