Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)

@MITM Trend support for this over—both teams on strong over runs. Bears 15-8 and Lions 7-2. GLTA followers! 

@Chipper65

 He can't help that, sign of confidence in the market..........

@Coben

 Ya, wasn't being negative...I played it at 43.  I was happy to see the flex!

Detroit game not happening on the over.  Too many Lion mistakes.  Good luck to all moving forward.

Goalll jocoro fc.....ez mo. 

Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)

Starting Bankroll ($1000)

Current Bankroll ($2199.20)

Record (26-14)

(65.00%) Winners 

The Grand Challenge will continue on Monday December 11

Falcon Sports 

Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)

Starting Bankroll ($1000)

Current Bankroll ($2199.20)

Record (26-14)

(65.00%) Winners 

Play #41

Cal St Northridge Under 147.5 (-110)

$219.92 to win $200

Being very honest here, things have gone about as I expected. We had the hot start, thats normal for me. We have had regression, absolutely expected.

The Grand Challenge has ran just over 3 weeks, there are about 3 weeks left in December, tonight is sort of the start to part 2.

Believe it or not the Unders are (5-1) in The Grand Challenge.

We should be due an uptick right here, let's hope a fresh look at an Under starts this uptick.

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 this line went up from 145 to 148.5. do you still like the under even though the books are moving against your projection?

northridge is 1-6 on overs

utah tech is 3-5

CSN  1 - 6 OVER record

- CSN in the top 50 vs 3 pt for defense and under 100th for FG defense and overall defense

- Utah Tech can play defense decently but not like CSN and they rely on the 3 pt shot a lot

Might dive into this one

I went to CSUN.  They've only had one good run back in the 1990s.  Best of luck today whoever bets.

Even with the under stats, im fading. gl

The thread was at (25-8), since then its gone (1-6). 

If my calculations are correct, its time for an uptick. 

Falcon Sports 

GL TONIGHT!

I'm on it!

Uptick kiss of death. We'll get em next one 

I posted in one of his threads a couple months ago that you will NEVER win long term using only math !! Totals too!!  He posted in one other thread that his BS formula was like card counting!! One of the dumbest things I have heard on this site other than peoples politics. I doubt M is a math genius like the 1% of card counters? Isn't he in pest control ? Card guys can do math cuz they know how many cards are on the table!!  Tell me, when you play the next hoops game , how many free throws will each team have? And how many will be made or missed? Power plays in hockey!! When It's a guessing game you will never win, especially long term. Where are all the math wizards at making bank from the books everyday? You know those college kids at the ivy league schools would be posting their winnings on social media!! Yet nothing!! He was just on a heater and a trend of high scoring college football games!! No math!!  LOL I gotta run it by my associates!! Why does he keep claiming 55% on the 200 plays and not counting Tunica 2 or 3 weeks ago?  Same high volume formula, correct ? He took L's there!! 53% maybe ? What about the 20 plays a couple days ago going 10-10? That's losing money !! He did a parlay paying out 900, staked at 2000. Do that math and figure out the juice!! He is an average gambler at best with his 200 different models!! I have a 1 grand bet that says he will NEVER go 400-300 like he thinks he will. 600-400 I have a 5k bet with anybody on here!! Read a gambling book and I've read em all. Those pros barely even mention totals!! And math, nothing !! Too much human variance !! The touting himself is hilarious when going good and the ass kissing defending is too !!  Wake up and learn to gamble chumps !!   

@Brandon_SeeEOhh

 Agree. You cannot factor in the human element of the game such as in prop bets. Good example: Nick Chubb from the Browns in week 2 or 3 got injured by the 2nd qtr and I had him over 17.5 carries. He was at 12 or 13, gets hurt, I lost 200.  The bet site did not refund me. MITM or Falcon has done well but so have I and others here. I honestly faded the CSUN play to the over figuring our group here has lost 5 in a row. Math alone, power models, trends, etc all make up the nature of the bets but there are no guarantees. It makes me wonder how people pay other "pro cappers" for what they call guaranteed winners. I appreciate the winners but now it's time to move on and learn from others and this experience.

@frankbullitt

 Yes, thank you !!  Love the movie Bullitt !! If that's what you're referring too? Mustang guy here !!  

Trust me, I want everybody to beat the books n Vegas !!  

He just keeps touting how his models can beat the books !! Small sample size and he quits a model and claims victory like it will win long term!! I am sure he was hoping for peeps to pay him in the background like email ? He did try to, or did go tout before? We are in a capitalist society so I don't care !! My point is his models aren't proven over the long haul !!  He was generous to give us Christmas picks. At least you all got a xmas miracle safety for a win !! I do hope the rest hit tho !! My point is you will Never win with strictly math and totals, NEVER !!  And the other thread, like betting all dogs hasn't been done hundreds of times over !! Won't work either !! Hard to pick which dogs will win each day !!  Just trying to knock some sense into these followers heads from a long time gambler too!!  Good luck everyone !!  

@Brandon_SeeEOhh

 I have a 2011 Mustang 5.0. I owned a 2001 Bullitt up until 2010 then sold it. I've owned 6 Mustangs since 1983. I also have a 2003 Mercury Marauder. Good fortune to all of us.

This thread reminds me a bit of Leaguecapper when he went on a heater one season in NFL then the next his system fell flat.  At least Falcon hasn't charged for picks like LC did.  I know a lot of people lost a ton when he went tout because they based his success on one season and they lost not only his picks but also the money spent on the picks unless he ended up refunding them..  Fact is it's very hard to win long term.  And long term I mean over multiple seasons.  Even harder when you combine multiple sports.  It's hard enough to cap a Saturday slate of college football, then your also gonna be able to cap NHL, NBA, NFL on Sunday?? And College hoops?  

But it's easy to get jaded.  First time I got into this, it was back in 2008.   I was at another forum and I was tailing a capper that went by Pags11.  He was capping college football and I remember he just couldn't lose.  I forget what his record was but I don't think he lost more than 10 games the entire season.  Thanks to him, I was able to win enough over a season that I had enough money for a sizeable down payment on a Mazda RX8, a car I always wanted.

Next season came along and it was the complete opposite. I didn't get past week 5 due to the losses I suffered so I stopped tailing.  Thankfully I did because he had a horrid season.  And then he disappeared.

I do like some his advice though, such as treating this as an investment and reducing/increasing your bet size based on the bankroll.  I also like his one at a time approach and limiting the amount of plays.  I'd rather got 2-1 than 5-4 as your ahead at 2-1 and breaking even at 5-4. 

Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)

Starting Bankroll ($1000)

Current Bankroll ($1979.28)

Record (26-15)

(63.41%) Winners 

Play #42

Chicago Over 216.5 (-110) Draftkings 

$197.92 to win $180

Just a couple things.

This is the reality of sports betting. How u handle it, let's you know if u can make it in this business or not 

I'm not the least bit worried or concerned. I've been down this road many times. When it does occur, I do like to simplify everything and practice great bankroll management.

One more thing, the win percentage is still at (63.41%) and thats still too high and the starting bankroll has almost doubled. 

I'll be here through play #50 and then ill evaluate on whether to continue on. 

I wish everyone here the best. 

Falcon Sports 

On draftkings went on as soon as posted was 219

This reminds me of first couple weeks.

At 6:30 am cst on Draftkings, the total was 216.5

It has now moved to 219. 

218.5 is still widely available.

I have the Power Total at 224, hopefully this is a good sign.

All u have to do if u doubt my line is pull up the line history, that used to be widely available.

I like how they moved it right after I bet, reminds of the start of The Grand Challenge, when this happened every time.

Falcon Sports 

GL TONIGHT!