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    Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how

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    SportsMavin
    SportsMavin
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 11:50 AM ET #3551

    Quote Originally Posted by melosjumper7:

    One other thing that I think is important, and if Mavin doesn't agree with this then taht is okay as well.  But I actually don't mind when people post and they don't bet exactly like Mavin preaches, we all have are own idea and methods for betting.  Have I improved because of Mavin, yes I have, but I do feel that if you like doing parlays, or like betting more games, then that is ok, as long as you have a good explanation to back up why you bet the certain way you do, and how it is profitable over time.  I mean thats a big point of this thread, is to make everyone better at betting as a whole, not about what so and sos record is.  Do results, show acknowledgement of a certain method, well of course it does.  But those results are over a long, long, haul, not a day, or week, or sometimes even a month...after a few months you get an idea of what is really going on.  Now do i expect to be up every month, of course I do, but the fact that people keep jumping on how someone does in one day....unless they bet 40 games and lose 35, it doesn't show a true projection of how you bet.  We all have to keep an open mind, however that doesn't mean come on here and go: dude my record is like 35-12 in last ten days, and then post your picks, show no method for winnning, and then reject everyone elses way of betting.  Obviously there are exceptions, like that idiot yesterday who just said i bet 70 games and get 5 percent value, you obvoiusly have to make sense, in why you bet a certain way that you do that shows profit.  But I guess my point, is I'm open to different forms of betting, as long as it is profitable, but those are results we have to see over time,  I don't plan on changing my approach much, but we can all learn new ways to make money.....I mean seriously for the last time, this thread is more about the methods of being profitable over time, not wow dude you suck you went 1-4 today......and of course it doesn't mean I am going to agree with the way everyone bets, but if it works for you and its profitable, I'm willing to hear about it,  We can all take what we want from what each person says, and get the rid of what we dont want.  There is no reason to be judgemental of the way people bet unless its obvious over time that your way wouldn't be profitable or that we feel that a certain way might be better to bet.  But we can all learn, I mean how many times do you hear Mavin compliment other people for there bets.  Now, how many times do you think Mavin goes on other peoples threads and tells them everything they are doing wrong in their betting styles???....We all have a certain way that works for us, but we can all get better at this.....so lets make some money and support each other at the same time....
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by melosjumper7:

    One other thing that I think is important, and if Mavin doesn't agree with this then taht is okay as well.  But I actually don't mind when people post and they don't bet exactly like Mavin preaches, we all have are own idea and methods for betting.  Have I improved because of Mavin, yes I have, but I do feel that if you like doing parlays, or like betting more games, then that is ok, as long as you have a good explanation to back up why you bet the certain way you do, and how it is profitable over time.  I mean thats a big point of this thread, is to make everyone better at betting as a whole, not about what so and sos record is.  Do results, show acknowledgement of a certain method, well of course it does.  But those results are over a long, long, haul, not a day, or week, or sometimes even a month...after a few months you get an idea of what is really going on.  Now do i expect to be up every month, of course I do, but the fact that people keep jumping on how someone does in one day....unless they bet 40 games and lose 35, it doesn't show a true projection of how you bet.  We all have to keep an open mind, however that doesn't mean come on here and go: dude my record is like 35-12 in last ten days, and then post your picks, show no method for winnning, and then reject everyone elses way of betting.  Obviously there are exceptions, like that idiot yesterday who just said i bet 70 games and get 5 percent value, you obvoiusly have to make sense, in why you bet a certain way that you do that shows profit.  But I guess my point, is I'm open to different forms of betting, as long as it is profitable, but those are results we have to see over time,  I don't plan on changing my approach much, but we can all learn new ways to make money.....I mean seriously for the last time, this thread is more about the methods of being profitable over time, not wow dude you suck you went 1-4 today......and of course it doesn't mean I am going to agree with the way everyone bets, but if it works for you and its profitable, I'm willing to hear about it,  We can all take what we want from what each person says, and get the rid of what we dont want.  There is no reason to be judgemental of the way people bet unless its obvious over time that your way wouldn't be profitable or that we feel that a certain way might be better to bet.  But we can all learn, I mean how many times do you hear Mavin compliment other people for there bets.  Now, how many times do you think Mavin goes on other peoples threads and tells them everything they are doing wrong in their betting styles???....We all have a certain way that works for us, but we can all get better at this.....so lets make some money and support each other at the same time....
     
    SportsMavin
    SportsMavin
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 5295
    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 11:52 AM ET #3552

    Quote Originally Posted by pradeep7:

    hi to everyone i wanna post my plays here i want to discuss after winning or losing abt my plays can i do it or not?
    As long as you read the thread and understand the principles we abide here - you're more than welcome to contribute, get better and better the others.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by pradeep7:

    hi to everyone i wanna post my plays here i want to discuss after winning or losing abt my plays can i do it or not?
    As long as you read the thread and understand the principles we abide here - you're more than welcome to contribute, get better and better the others.
     
    SportsMavin
    SportsMavin
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 5295
    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 11:55 AM ET #3553

    Sunday

    NY Knicks - NO Hornets  Under 94.5  Second Half  (-110)  110$

    Loss  -110$


    SA Spurs -12.5  (-110)  110$

    Win  +100$


    BROOKLYN Nets vs INDIANA Pacers  Under 179.5 (now 181) (-110) 110$

    Loss  -110$


    BROOKLYN Nets vs INDIANA Pacers Over 91.5 First Half  (-110)  110$

    Win  +100$


    DENVER Nuggets -3.5  First Half  (-110)   110$

    Loss  -110$


    SA Spurs -6.5 Second Half  (-110)  110$

    Win   +100$


    PORTLAND Trail Blazers - OKC Thunder Over 201.5  (-110)  110$

    Loss  -110$

    Reply
    Sunday

    NY Knicks - NO Hornets  Under 94.5  Second Half  (-110)  110$

    Loss  -110$


    SA Spurs -12.5  (-110)  110$

    Win  +100$


    BROOKLYN Nets vs INDIANA Pacers  Under 179.5 (now 181) (-110) 110$

    Loss  -110$


    BROOKLYN Nets vs INDIANA Pacers Over 91.5 First Half  (-110)  110$

    Win  +100$


    DENVER Nuggets -3.5  First Half  (-110)   110$

    Loss  -110$


    SA Spurs -6.5 Second Half  (-110)  110$

    Win   +100$


    PORTLAND Trail Blazers - OKC Thunder Over 201.5  (-110)  110$

    Loss  -110$

     
    SportsMavin
    SportsMavin
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 5295
    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 11:59 AM ET #3554

    Today NBA    3-4   -140$

    Today NFL     1-1    -10

    Overall today  4-5    -150$


    Overall NFL         7-6        -182 $

    Overall Parlays    3-5          -92 $

    Overall NBA   36-31-1     +70 $  (26-15 ATS    10-16 Totals)

    Overall NCAAF   1-1        -120 $

    Overall           43-38-1     -324 $

    Started with 2,000 $         Now  1,676 $

    Reply

    Today NBA    3-4   -140$

    Today NFL     1-1    -10

    Overall today  4-5    -150$


    Overall NFL         7-6        -182 $

    Overall Parlays    3-5          -92 $

    Overall NBA   36-31-1     +70 $  (26-15 ATS    10-16 Totals)

    Overall NCAAF   1-1        -120 $

    Overall           43-38-1     -324 $

    Started with 2,000 $         Now  1,676 $

     
    dr_unit
    dr_unit
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Apr, 2012
    Posts: 164
    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 12:03 PM ET #3555

    Mavin do you think lvsc has people that frequent forums such as this one?
    Reply
    Mavin do you think lvsc has people that frequent forums such as this one?
     
    Turbovtk
    Turbovtk
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 1676
    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 12:07 PM ET #3556

    Quote Originally Posted by melosjumper7:

    One other thing that I think is important, and if Mavin doesn't agree with this then taht is okay as well.  But I actually don't mind when people post and they don't bet exactly like Mavin preaches, we all have are own idea and methods for betting.  Have I improved because of Mavin, yes I have, but I do feel that if you like doing parlays, or like betting more games, then that is ok, as long as you have a good explanation to back up why you bet the certain way you do, and how it is profitable over time.  I mean thats a big point of this thread, is to make everyone better at betting as a whole, not about what so and sos record is.  Do results, show acknowledgement of a certain method, well of course it does.  But those results are over a long, long, haul, not a day, or week, or sometimes even a month...after a few months you get an idea of what is really going on.  Now do i expect to be up every month, of course I do, but the fact that people keep jumping on how someone does in one day....unless they bet 40 games and lose 35, it doesn't show a true projection of how you bet.  We all have to keep an open mind, however that doesn't mean come on here and go: dude my record is like 35-12 in last ten days, and then post your picks, show no method for winnning, and then reject everyone elses way of betting.  Obviously there are exceptions, like that idiot yesterday who just said i bet 70 games and get 5 percent value, you obvoiusly have to make sense, in why you bet a certain way that you do that shows profit.  But I guess my point, is I'm open to different forms of betting, as long as it is profitable, but those are results we have to see over time,  I don't plan on changing my approach much, but we can all learn new ways to make money.....I mean seriously for the last time, this thread is more about the methods of being profitable over time, not wow dude you suck you went 1-4 today......and of course it doesn't mean I am going to agree with the way everyone bets, but if it works for you and its profitable, I'm willing to hear about it,  We can all take what we want from what each person says, and get the rid of what we dont want.  There is no reason to be judgemental of the way people bet unless its obvious over time that your way wouldn't be profitable or that we feel that a certain way might be better to bet.  But we can all learn, I mean how many times do you hear Mavin compliment other people for there bets.  Now, how many times do you think Mavin goes on other peoples threads and tells them everything they are doing wrong in their betting styles???....We all have a certain way that works for us, but we can all get better at this.....so lets make some money and support each other at the same time....

    I could not have said this better myself.

    However I did not start the thread and really don't have a saying on how it should flow. I will add that I have gained good stuff and read a lot of crap here as well (not from pickers but from people bashing the thread- if it's not for you move on) I think we are the minority going against the giant (the books) and we should try to figure out the best ways to make money- I was really bad in my first year 2010 then in 2011 improved a lot- in 2012 I see the game (betting) from a totally different point of view- in 2010 I would just do it for entertainment I am a fan of sports so I figured if am watching these games I might as well lay $50 on each- I would spend more than that seeing it live so why not- then I was making some money and was like ohh ok maybe there is more to it- then had a bad patch where I was always trying to hit a home run and was striking out a lot- in 2011 started doing more analytics and more homework (granted this became fun just reading and trying to handicap instead of straight out betting) in 2012 when I really got into college football I began to cut the crap meaning the hype on the games and doing the math and really following the system which it is somewhat rigged meaning the refs, it is not a conspiracy it is a fact. I can go on about that but we all have read the news.

    What seem to take my game to another level in last quarter of 2012 was to have a certain amount of my funds that I would dedicate to parlays (this came after always hitting 4-5 out of 10 picks on a parlay- started refining that where most days I know hit 6-8 I know that it is still a loss but the losers were marginal and thus started using teaser- started with the 3 team 10pt teasers in the NFL to try it out and it worked with a 90% ratio of success- then started increasing all the way up to 7 team 6pt or 8pts- the rate of wins dropped to 55% so if I make 10 parlays/teasers and hit 2 it is 20% but the fact that these are so low in capital $ the math should really be how much are the winnings vs the money risked- I have not done the math but at the start most of my parlays risk $1-5 and I only place them if the amount to make is over $100 so if I make 10 of $1 that is $10 if I hit just one I am still up $90- to do all the math on all I have done would get really complicated and will probably show no value to me for the time spent- So I will start with my open spot bets that are still open and anything I do after that and see what that does by the end of this month and so forth. If anyone think this is of no value to this thread I can always start my own but am sure some of you would be interested and it would be best if we all got along and started sharing ideas with methods to back it up as I assume we are all here for one thing and one thing only to make money. Sure we we will post rants and brags about wins/loses but don't be too shallow to understand there is value to be found on those posts as well- it talks about character and allows you to stay of someone who is betting on emotional highs or loss based on their current win/loss streak.

    (I have since added the open parlays which require $50 min so this means that my cost are increasing but so are the potential profits)
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by melosjumper7:

    One other thing that I think is important, and if Mavin doesn't agree with this then taht is okay as well.  But I actually don't mind when people post and they don't bet exactly like Mavin preaches, we all have are own idea and methods for betting.  Have I improved because of Mavin, yes I have, but I do feel that if you like doing parlays, or like betting more games, then that is ok, as long as you have a good explanation to back up why you bet the certain way you do, and how it is profitable over time.  I mean thats a big point of this thread, is to make everyone better at betting as a whole, not about what so and sos record is.  Do results, show acknowledgement of a certain method, well of course it does.  But those results are over a long, long, haul, not a day, or week, or sometimes even a month...after a few months you get an idea of what is really going on.  Now do i expect to be up every month, of course I do, but the fact that people keep jumping on how someone does in one day....unless they bet 40 games and lose 35, it doesn't show a true projection of how you bet.  We all have to keep an open mind, however that doesn't mean come on here and go: dude my record is like 35-12 in last ten days, and then post your picks, show no method for winnning, and then reject everyone elses way of betting.  Obviously there are exceptions, like that idiot yesterday who just said i bet 70 games and get 5 percent value, you obvoiusly have to make sense, in why you bet a certain way that you do that shows profit.  But I guess my point, is I'm open to different forms of betting, as long as it is profitable, but those are results we have to see over time,  I don't plan on changing my approach much, but we can all learn new ways to make money.....I mean seriously for the last time, this thread is more about the methods of being profitable over time, not wow dude you suck you went 1-4 today......and of course it doesn't mean I am going to agree with the way everyone bets, but if it works for you and its profitable, I'm willing to hear about it,  We can all take what we want from what each person says, and get the rid of what we dont want.  There is no reason to be judgemental of the way people bet unless its obvious over time that your way wouldn't be profitable or that we feel that a certain way might be better to bet.  But we can all learn, I mean how many times do you hear Mavin compliment other people for there bets.  Now, how many times do you think Mavin goes on other peoples threads and tells them everything they are doing wrong in their betting styles???....We all have a certain way that works for us, but we can all get better at this.....so lets make some money and support each other at the same time....

    I could not have said this better myself.

    However I did not start the thread and really don't have a saying on how it should flow. I will add that I have gained good stuff and read a lot of crap here as well (not from pickers but from people bashing the thread- if it's not for you move on) I think we are the minority going against the giant (the books) and we should try to figure out the best ways to make money- I was really bad in my first year 2010 then in 2011 improved a lot- in 2012 I see the game (betting) from a totally different point of view- in 2010 I would just do it for entertainment I am a fan of sports so I figured if am watching these games I might as well lay $50 on each- I would spend more than that seeing it live so why not- then I was making some money and was like ohh ok maybe there is more to it- then had a bad patch where I was always trying to hit a home run and was striking out a lot- in 2011 started doing more analytics and more homework (granted this became fun just reading and trying to handicap instead of straight out betting) in 2012 when I really got into college football I began to cut the crap meaning the hype on the games and doing the math and really following the system which it is somewhat rigged meaning the refs, it is not a conspiracy it is a fact. I can go on about that but we all have read the news.

    What seem to take my game to another level in last quarter of 2012 was to have a certain amount of my funds that I would dedicate to parlays (this came after always hitting 4-5 out of 10 picks on a parlay- started refining that where most days I know hit 6-8 I know that it is still a loss but the losers were marginal and thus started using teaser- started with the 3 team 10pt teasers in the NFL to try it out and it worked with a 90% ratio of success- then started increasing all the way up to 7 team 6pt or 8pts- the rate of wins dropped to 55% so if I make 10 parlays/teasers and hit 2 it is 20% but the fact that these are so low in capital $ the math should really be how much are the winnings vs the money risked- I have not done the math but at the start most of my parlays risk $1-5 and I only place them if the amount to make is over $100 so if I make 10 of $1 that is $10 if I hit just one I am still up $90- to do all the math on all I have done would get really complicated and will probably show no value to me for the time spent- So I will start with my open spot bets that are still open and anything I do after that and see what that does by the end of this month and so forth. If anyone think this is of no value to this thread I can always start my own but am sure some of you would be interested and it would be best if we all got along and started sharing ideas with methods to back it up as I assume we are all here for one thing and one thing only to make money. Sure we we will post rants and brags about wins/loses but don't be too shallow to understand there is value to be found on those posts as well- it talks about character and allows you to stay of someone who is betting on emotional highs or loss based on their current win/loss streak.

    (I have since added the open parlays which require $50 min so this means that my cost are increasing but so are the potential profits)
     
    BigTenWatto
    BigTenWatto
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 12:07 PM ET #3557

    My three point annoyance strategy took another hit on a late game last night. The record in this thread is 3-5 and 4 of the losses have been west coast games.

    Today, I will be watching two games with a three point shooting difference.

    Chi -4.5

    Memphis -1.5 (this line has fallen from -3 since 9am this morning, so that is a little worrisome).
    Reply
    My three point annoyance strategy took another hit on a late game last night. The record in this thread is 3-5 and 4 of the losses have been west coast games.

    Today, I will be watching two games with a three point shooting difference.

    Chi -4.5

    Memphis -1.5 (this line has fallen from -3 since 9am this morning, so that is a little worrisome).
     
    SportsMavin
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 12:16 PM ET #3558

    My considered plays today (remember it's Monday)

    Phoenix either cover the first half or the game
    Utah  either cover the first half or the game
    Memphis either cover the first half or the game
    Under in Memphis
    Orlando to cover
    Charlotte to cover the first half
    Dallas to cover
    Reply
    My considered plays today (remember it's Monday)

    Phoenix either cover the first half or the game
    Utah  either cover the first half or the game
    Memphis either cover the first half or the game
    Under in Memphis
    Orlando to cover
    Charlotte to cover the first half
    Dallas to cover
     
    Turbovtk
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 12:31 PM ET #3559

    Quote Originally Posted by pradeep7:

    hi to everyone i wanna post my plays here i want to discuss after winning or losing abt my plays can i do it or not?

    I did not start the thread but I think it is also worth posting the thought/method behind the picks before you make them as well as after. From personal exp. I can tell you that some bets are made last minute and while it may look like you posted after the fact we still want to know what made you place the bet.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by pradeep7:

    hi to everyone i wanna post my plays here i want to discuss after winning or losing abt my plays can i do it or not?

    I did not start the thread but I think it is also worth posting the thought/method behind the picks before you make them as well as after. From personal exp. I can tell you that some bets are made last minute and while it may look like you posted after the fact we still want to know what made you place the bet.
     
    djavol
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 12:32 PM ET #3560

    Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

    3-4




    Overthinking my friend...too many stats and numbers.  Of course. the process to becoming a tout is well in line.  Keep up the mediocre work

    Well, why dont you read this you idiot. MAVIN answering some big woopty doo "Financiers" who talk like they own mine and your butts altogether! Read it and you may learn a bit who MAVIN is. I think he's so rich that can buy you out of your meaningless existence if he only wanted too!
    I'm glad this thread upgraded itself into most common human debate between those who already have it and want to protect what they have by all means (naturally) using Ivy rhetoric and those who have been standing in line too long before realizing the line is never going to move unless you do something about it. 
    Well, that scenario has been playing out itself for centuries and the natural selection has always prevailed. If you go back to the story of David and Abigail - you'll find clear blueprints of how that natural selection process works. In order for line to move - brute force has to be applied, but if that will not be followed by a hard work and true learning process immediately - the gains will be lost very soon.
    So, before advocating Hard Work only as a tool to advance in a ladder - you have to define for yourself the goals - Do I really want to advance in a ladder? Do I really need the power to be happy? Do I really want to waste half of my life preparing for the other half instead of taking and embracing what I was given from the beginning and not being in awe or jealous of the guys in suit?
    My answer is that every person has a different approach to those questions and usually everything balances out at the end. I like to do what I like to do without being forced into it and doing it just because I want to be like the man in a suit. I have a very close friend who invented a thing or two that have to do with software and internet media. When he's being asked how much is he worth - his usual and casual answer is - "I have no idea". He stays away from the politics and the public eye, dedicates himself to environmental issues and thinks few generations ahead. He did not come from wealth, but he came with good intentions from the beginning and a positive mindset about who he is and where is he headed. Not directed, but headed. Think about it. You have to be in control of your own destiny and make your own choices. Otherwise, you'll be part of the herd. And will be bound to the rules of the herd while you had nothing to do with writing them.
    The word is Accepted. Every person longs to be accepted in a circle he values. Gangsters like to be accepted among other gangsters and the Medical Doctors like to be accepted in general public. you see the difference? Broader the acceptance circle - harder you have to work. I - personally like to be accepted by the next generations as someone who could and did contribute when he could
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

    3-4




    Overthinking my friend...too many stats and numbers.  Of course. the process to becoming a tout is well in line.  Keep up the mediocre work

    Well, why dont you read this you idiot. MAVIN answering some big woopty doo "Financiers" who talk like they own mine and your butts altogether! Read it and you may learn a bit who MAVIN is. I think he's so rich that can buy you out of your meaningless existence if he only wanted too!
    I'm glad this thread upgraded itself into most common human debate between those who already have it and want to protect what they have by all means (naturally) using Ivy rhetoric and those who have been standing in line too long before realizing the line is never going to move unless you do something about it. 
    Well, that scenario has been playing out itself for centuries and the natural selection has always prevailed. If you go back to the story of David and Abigail - you'll find clear blueprints of how that natural selection process works. In order for line to move - brute force has to be applied, but if that will not be followed by a hard work and true learning process immediately - the gains will be lost very soon.
    So, before advocating Hard Work only as a tool to advance in a ladder - you have to define for yourself the goals - Do I really want to advance in a ladder? Do I really need the power to be happy? Do I really want to waste half of my life preparing for the other half instead of taking and embracing what I was given from the beginning and not being in awe or jealous of the guys in suit?
    My answer is that every person has a different approach to those questions and usually everything balances out at the end. I like to do what I like to do without being forced into it and doing it just because I want to be like the man in a suit. I have a very close friend who invented a thing or two that have to do with software and internet media. When he's being asked how much is he worth - his usual and casual answer is - "I have no idea". He stays away from the politics and the public eye, dedicates himself to environmental issues and thinks few generations ahead. He did not come from wealth, but he came with good intentions from the beginning and a positive mindset about who he is and where is he headed. Not directed, but headed. Think about it. You have to be in control of your own destiny and make your own choices. Otherwise, you'll be part of the herd. And will be bound to the rules of the herd while you had nothing to do with writing them.
    The word is Accepted. Every person longs to be accepted in a circle he values. Gangsters like to be accepted among other gangsters and the Medical Doctors like to be accepted in general public. you see the difference? Broader the acceptance circle - harder you have to work. I - personally like to be accepted by the next generations as someone who could and did contribute when he could
     
    pradeep7
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 12:36 PM ET #3561

    1.thunder -6

    2.mavericks -7

    3.heat +2.5

    4.cavaliers +5.5

    5.celtics -11 good luck everyone here
    Reply
    1.thunder -6

    2.mavericks -7

    3.heat +2.5

    4.cavaliers +5.5

    5.celtics -11 good luck everyone here
     
    eaglequill
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 1:00 PM ET #3562

    Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

    My three point annoyance strategy took another hit on a late game last night. The record in this thread is 3-5 and 4 of the losses have been west coast games.

    Today, I will be watching two games with a three point shooting difference.

    Chi -4.5

    Memphis -1.5 (this line has fallen from -3 since 9am this morning, so that is a little worrisome).

    OK  I am going to shoot holes in your 3 point theory, Your not factoring in the offensive of defensive rebound differentials. Many times a missed three pointer results in a runout and easy basket for the opposition. ( They are many times long rebounds) They are also many times an offensive rebound that may result in a putback. I really do not think that your three point theory differential is going to help determine any advantage without considering the results of Offensive and defensive run-outs that typically accompany three point shots. Only trying to help you not trying to bash your ideas. I think they could be helpful but rebounds need to be considered.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

    My three point annoyance strategy took another hit on a late game last night. The record in this thread is 3-5 and 4 of the losses have been west coast games.

    Today, I will be watching two games with a three point shooting difference.

    Chi -4.5

    Memphis -1.5 (this line has fallen from -3 since 9am this morning, so that is a little worrisome).

    OK  I am going to shoot holes in your 3 point theory, Your not factoring in the offensive of defensive rebound differentials. Many times a missed three pointer results in a runout and easy basket for the opposition. ( They are many times long rebounds) They are also many times an offensive rebound that may result in a putback. I really do not think that your three point theory differential is going to help determine any advantage without considering the results of Offensive and defensive run-outs that typically accompany three point shots. Only trying to help you not trying to bash your ideas. I think they could be helpful but rebounds need to be considered.
     
    Turbovtk
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 1:03 PM ET #3563

    Early lines for parlay that I am looking at no decisions yet...

    NFL

    1. SAN FRANCISCO -3 - 1 /20 /13 @ 12:00:00

    NFL

    6. NEW ENGLAND -9 - 1 /20 /13 @ 15:30:00

    NBA

    10. WASHINGTON -2 - 1 /14 /13 @ 16:05:00

    NBA

    12. BOSTON -11 - 1 /14 /13 @ 16:35:00

    NBA

    14. CHICAGO -4 - 1 /14 /13 @ 17:05:00

    NBA

    15. LA CLIPPERS +2 - 1 /14 /13 @ 17:05:00

    NBA

    18. DALLAS -7 - 1 /14 /13 @ 17:35:00

    NBA

    19. MIAMI -3 - 1 /14 /13 @ 18:05:00

    NBA

    21. OKLAHOMA CITY -6 - 1 /14 /13 @ 18:05:00

    NBA

    24. SACRAMENTO -6 - 1 /14 /13 


    This list may be cut down or some picks selected as individuals.

    I feel Strong about CLIPS MIA OKC the others still need to read more later today. This are lines of a parlay card which do not allow for a push needs to be a win because a push=loss.

    That being said I may be doing some of this on money lines.

    CLIPS need a bounce back win after their last loss, Memphis started the year by losing to the CLIPS 92-101 at LAC, then went on to win like 8 straight games including warriors, jazz, bucks, rockets, heat, thunder, knicks most of those by 10 points to 18 points. I have no idea why they are a dog on this one but I ll be biting on this.

    MIA seems to be getting back on track and as good as Utah is they play better against teams that play more of a half court 3 pt game like the spurs etc. I think MIA can tire them out- Last year Utah beat MIA on a close game I see this as a payback game both games were were/are in Utah. MIA already beat them in MIA this year by a good margin +16. 

    OKC on their last meeting with the Suns they at OKC they won by 18 I I think buying 2pts here making it -3 is a good bet for me- I also expect this to be a high scoring game-

    That brings me to the overs-I am looking at some of these and they will mostly depend on 3pt shooting teams hitting or not hitting like on the last game today cars v. kings- and okc v. suns.
    Reply
    Early lines for parlay that I am looking at no decisions yet...

    NFL

    1. SAN FRANCISCO -3 - 1 /20 /13 @ 12:00:00

    NFL

    6. NEW ENGLAND -9 - 1 /20 /13 @ 15:30:00

    NBA

    10. WASHINGTON -2 - 1 /14 /13 @ 16:05:00

    NBA

    12. BOSTON -11 - 1 /14 /13 @ 16:35:00

    NBA

    14. CHICAGO -4 - 1 /14 /13 @ 17:05:00

    NBA

    15. LA CLIPPERS +2 - 1 /14 /13 @ 17:05:00

    NBA

    18. DALLAS -7 - 1 /14 /13 @ 17:35:00

    NBA

    19. MIAMI -3 - 1 /14 /13 @ 18:05:00

    NBA

    21. OKLAHOMA CITY -6 - 1 /14 /13 @ 18:05:00

    NBA

    24. SACRAMENTO -6 - 1 /14 /13 


    This list may be cut down or some picks selected as individuals.

    I feel Strong about CLIPS MIA OKC the others still need to read more later today. This are lines of a parlay card which do not allow for a push needs to be a win because a push=loss.

    That being said I may be doing some of this on money lines.

    CLIPS need a bounce back win after their last loss, Memphis started the year by losing to the CLIPS 92-101 at LAC, then went on to win like 8 straight games including warriors, jazz, bucks, rockets, heat, thunder, knicks most of those by 10 points to 18 points. I have no idea why they are a dog on this one but I ll be biting on this.

    MIA seems to be getting back on track and as good as Utah is they play better against teams that play more of a half court 3 pt game like the spurs etc. I think MIA can tire them out- Last year Utah beat MIA on a close game I see this as a payback game both games were were/are in Utah. MIA already beat them in MIA this year by a good margin +16. 

    OKC on their last meeting with the Suns they at OKC they won by 18 I I think buying 2pts here making it -3 is a good bet for me- I also expect this to be a high scoring game-

    That brings me to the overs-I am looking at some of these and they will mostly depend on 3pt shooting teams hitting or not hitting like on the last game today cars v. kings- and okc v. suns.
     
    Turbovtk
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 1:15 PM ET #3564

    Early Teaser read...
    Pays 8-1
    Placed it for $5 to win $40 for now to have it on my account-
    Will decide if I am going to go bigger on it or adjust closer to game time. Yesterday I did the same thing and adjusted right before the Knicks game and got a better line there-

    7 Team Teaser 6, 6½, 7 pts Football & 5½, 6,6½ pts Basketball

    01/14/2013 @ 07:05 PM NBA

    [701] ORLANDO +7½-110 (B+5½)

    01/14/2013 @ 07:35 PM NBA

    [704] BOSTON -5½-110 (B+5½)

    01/14/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA

    [707] LA CLIPPERS +7-110 (B+5½)

    01/14/2013 @ 08:35 PM NBA

    [710] DALLAS -1-110 (B+5½)

    01/14/2013 @ 09:05 PM NBA

    [711] MIAMI +3-110 (B+5½)

    01/14/2013 @ 09:05 PM NBA

    [713] OKLAHOMA CITY +½-110 (B+5½)

    01/14/2013 @ 10:05 PM NBA

    [716] SACRAMENTO PK-110 (B+5½)

    Reply
    Early Teaser read...
    Pays 8-1
    Placed it for $5 to win $40 for now to have it on my account-
    Will decide if I am going to go bigger on it or adjust closer to game time. Yesterday I did the same thing and adjusted right before the Knicks game and got a better line there-

    7 Team Teaser 6, 6½, 7 pts Football & 5½, 6,6½ pts Basketball

    01/14/2013 @ 07:05 PM NBA

    [701] ORLANDO +7½-110 (B+5½)

    01/14/2013 @ 07:35 PM NBA

    [704] BOSTON -5½-110 (B+5½)

    01/14/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA

    [707] LA CLIPPERS +7-110 (B+5½)

    01/14/2013 @ 08:35 PM NBA

    [710] DALLAS -1-110 (B+5½)

    01/14/2013 @ 09:05 PM NBA

    [711] MIAMI +3-110 (B+5½)

    01/14/2013 @ 09:05 PM NBA

    [713] OKLAHOMA CITY +½-110 (B+5½)

    01/14/2013 @ 10:05 PM NBA

    [716] SACRAMENTO PK-110 (B+5½)

     
    washhead
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 1:23 PM ET #3565

    Tonight I will be paying attention to the first half of MIN/DAL for a possible 2H wager.  TWolves have been terrible in the second half of their last three games without Coach Adelman -- outscored by 17, 18 and 13 in the 2H.  Adelman isn't expected back tonight, so I wonder if they will fall apart late again.  They are also playing their third game in four nights with a short bench. 
    Reply
    Tonight I will be paying attention to the first half of MIN/DAL for a possible 2H wager.  TWolves have been terrible in the second half of their last three games without Coach Adelman -- outscored by 17, 18 and 13 in the 2H.  Adelman isn't expected back tonight, so I wonder if they will fall apart late again.  They are also playing their third game in four nights with a short bench. 
     
    Turbovtk
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 1:27 PM ET #3566

    Quote Originally Posted by washhead:

    Tonight I will be paying attention to the first half of MIN/DAL for a possible 2H wager.  TWolves have been terrible in the second half of their last three games without Coach Adelman -- outscored by 17, 18 and 13 in the 2H.  Adelman isn't expected back tonight, so I wonder if they will fall apart late again.  They are also playing their third game in four nights with a short bench. 

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by washhead:

    Tonight I will be paying attention to the first half of MIN/DAL for a possible 2H wager.  TWolves have been terrible in the second half of their last three games without Coach Adelman -- outscored by 17, 18 and 13 in the 2H.  Adelman isn't expected back tonight, so I wonder if they will fall apart late again.  They are also playing their third game in four nights with a short bench. 

     
    greengiants
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 1:27 PM ET #3567

    noticed RLM in the cavs and sacramento game, line opened -5.5 and is now -5.
    Reply
    noticed RLM in the cavs and sacramento game, line opened -5.5 and is now -5.
     
    m10
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 1:28 PM ET #3568

    I righted the ship a little last night with Portland.  New record since counting:

    5-4 +30.

    My early leans tonight are:

    Washington - the second game back for Walls scares me a little.
    Clippers - I am watching this line closely.  Grizz seem like they should be the play here, but line is moving Clipps way.
    Jazz - Road game with rest for the Heat may have this a no play either

    Stonger Leans
    Dallas - I think we are seeing two teams moving opposite directions.  Love being out, Dirk continuing to come back.  Laying the points here could be a play.
    Over Thunder - I am watching line here as well. Both teams coming off low scoring games, but I feel points could be put up here in Phoenix tonight.
    Reply
    I righted the ship a little last night with Portland.  New record since counting:

    5-4 +30.

    My early leans tonight are:

    Washington - the second game back for Walls scares me a little.
    Clippers - I am watching this line closely.  Grizz seem like they should be the play here, but line is moving Clipps way.
    Jazz - Road game with rest for the Heat may have this a no play either

    Stonger Leans
    Dallas - I think we are seeing two teams moving opposite directions.  Love being out, Dirk continuing to come back.  Laying the points here could be a play.
    Over Thunder - I am watching line here as well. Both teams coming off low scoring games, but I feel points could be put up here in Phoenix tonight.
     
    m10
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 1:30 PM ET #3569

    In fact , playing Dallas now.  I see this line moving away.

    Dallas -6 -120


    Reply
    In fact , playing Dallas now.  I see this line moving away.

    Dallas -6 -120


     
    phixer
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 1:38 PM ET #3570

    I will post my first picks as well if you will. They are taking into a consideration all the stuff the Master have been teaching us so far in this thread. BOL to me and all of us and thanks Mavin for granting this great opportunity 

    Orlando  +2   Straight betting 200Euros to win 180Euros

    Memphis -2   Straight Betting 200Euros to win 180Euros

    Under 183.5 Memphis game  Straight betting 400 Euros to win 360Euros

    My bankroll is 4000Euros  
    After the bets placed  3200Euros
    Reply
    I will post my first picks as well if you will. They are taking into a consideration all the stuff the Master have been teaching us so far in this thread. BOL to me and all of us and thanks Mavin for granting this great opportunity 

    Orlando  +2   Straight betting 200Euros to win 180Euros

    Memphis -2   Straight Betting 200Euros to win 180Euros

    Under 183.5 Memphis game  Straight betting 400 Euros to win 360Euros

    My bankroll is 4000Euros  
    After the bets placed  3200Euros
     
    SportsMavin
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    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 2:02 PM ET #3571

    Digging in my personal life and if I'm rich or poor is not going to get you anywhere. Please stop with the praises and master crap too. I can hardly master my dog. 
    I'll tell you all you want to know or have to know if needed. I did make a little fortune through etrade as it was called back then and now and then I make something out of it again and again. It's called Trading Option those days and is based on basic knowledge of trading commodities, stocks and currencies against currencies. The trade can be done long term, short term or immediate terms (like 60 seconds). I wish the Covers would have a dedicated forum so I can open a thread to explain bit more. 
    So, this week I'll be opening a thread on the subject on Special Interest/Investment forum. You're all welcome
    Reply
    Digging in my personal life and if I'm rich or poor is not going to get you anywhere. Please stop with the praises and master crap too. I can hardly master my dog. 
    I'll tell you all you want to know or have to know if needed. I did make a little fortune through etrade as it was called back then and now and then I make something out of it again and again. It's called Trading Option those days and is based on basic knowledge of trading commodities, stocks and currencies against currencies. The trade can be done long term, short term or immediate terms (like 60 seconds). I wish the Covers would have a dedicated forum so I can open a thread to explain bit more. 
    So, this week I'll be opening a thread on the subject on Special Interest/Investment forum. You're all welcome
     
    SportsMavin
    SportsMavin
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 5295
    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 2:04 PM ET #3572

    Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

    I will post my first picks as well if you will. They are taking into a consideration all the stuff the Master have been teaching us so far in this thread. BOL to me and all of us and thanks Mavin for granting this great opportunity 

    Orlando  +2   Straight betting 200Euros to win 180Euros

    Memphis -2   Straight Betting 200Euros to win 180Euros

    Under 183.5 Memphis game  Straight betting 400 Euros to win 360Euros

    My bankroll is 4000Euros  
    After the bets placed  3200Euros

    GL. I hope you'll update the outcomes of your plays and the record on daily bases. 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

    I will post my first picks as well if you will. They are taking into a consideration all the stuff the Master have been teaching us so far in this thread. BOL to me and all of us and thanks Mavin for granting this great opportunity 

    Orlando  +2   Straight betting 200Euros to win 180Euros

    Memphis -2   Straight Betting 200Euros to win 180Euros

    Under 183.5 Memphis game  Straight betting 400 Euros to win 360Euros

    My bankroll is 4000Euros  
    After the bets placed  3200Euros

    GL. I hope you'll update the outcomes of your plays and the record on daily bases. 
     
    uste_13
    uste_13
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 40
    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 2:39 PM ET #3573

    Here's a little contribution of mine. Hope it helps 

    For the past few days, I have been tallying and tailing games according to some "theories" I have learned on this thread, other threads and some personal observations. First I'll state and describe the theories, then I'll state the How to win part and lastly, the tally how it went the past few days (about a week). Please do note that the tally is not my standings/wagers, but rather the game results as a whole. I study the line and use these theories in choosing winners. If it wins then 1-0, it it loses, then 0-1.So here goes... (hope this doesn't confuse anyone )

    Reverse Line Movement Theory
    This is when an (obvious) underdog and a (obvious) favorite is set-up in such a way that the line moved in favor of the favorite despite the heavy public betting on the favorite. They say that this line movement attracts the bettors to wager on the side which the line (movement) favors, so as to make Vegas "richer" by making the underdogs win/cover the game. 
    How to win? They say that betting on the underdogs makes winners most of the time. This is where the saying "fading the public" comes from.
    The tally (4-3)


    The TRAP Games
    This is when a line is called "fishy." 
    For example, OKC@WAS +1.0
    Obviously, people will jump on OKC, sleep, and then wake up as winners after the game. This is pretty self-explanatory. This are the type of lines where the spreads does not actually conform to what people perceive as fairly set spread. If the line stinks, then it's fishy indeed.
    How to win? Go with the underdogs! WTF BUT WHY?!! Let's go back to the OKC@WAS +1.0. FOR VERY OBVIOUS REASONS, people will bet on OKC. If all turns out well, the consensus will show about 70%-90% of bets on this side. For you to understand this, let's say that you are the bookie. As the bookie, what side do you want to cover? The favorites?..then pay them ALL the BIG BETS they wagered? Or have the dogs win and get that 70%-90% bets from the public? 
    The tally (4-1)



    Fatigue Factor Theory
    This is when a team is playing its 4th game in 5 days, 5th game in 7 days,etc. This also applies to 4 road games back to back. Well, you get the picture. When one team is rested, and the other is winded up, expect for a let down.
    How to win? Well, go for the rested ones. Simple. This Theory is tricky, but (personally) effective. Look for teams that have played 4 games in 5 days. Look also for those teams that played 2OT the night before...those that played with the MIA, OKC and LAC in 3 days straight..even a well rested WAS will kill any team that is fatigued.
    The tally (5-0)


    The theories stated above are NOT FACTS and does not apply to ALL games. OKC are called road warriors and the fatigue theory wont make you winners against this team. RLM does not work all the time, favorites are called favorites because they can crash teams if they wanted to. And lastly, TRAP games may not be a trap after all. But if used wisely and backed up with a good mind, I'm pretty sure that every now and then, these will make some of us winners.

    BOL TO ALL!
    p.s. Thanks MAVIN 
    Reply
    Here's a little contribution of mine. Hope it helps 

    For the past few days, I have been tallying and tailing games according to some "theories" I have learned on this thread, other threads and some personal observations. First I'll state and describe the theories, then I'll state the How to win part and lastly, the tally how it went the past few days (about a week). Please do note that the tally is not my standings/wagers, but rather the game results as a whole. I study the line and use these theories in choosing winners. If it wins then 1-0, it it loses, then 0-1.So here goes... (hope this doesn't confuse anyone )

    Reverse Line Movement Theory
    This is when an (obvious) underdog and a (obvious) favorite is set-up in such a way that the line moved in favor of the favorite despite the heavy public betting on the favorite. They say that this line movement attracts the bettors to wager on the side which the line (movement) favors, so as to make Vegas "richer" by making the underdogs win/cover the game. 
    How to win? They say that betting on the underdogs makes winners most of the time. This is where the saying "fading the public" comes from.
    The tally (4-3)


    The TRAP Games
    This is when a line is called "fishy." 
    For example, OKC@WAS +1.0
    Obviously, people will jump on OKC, sleep, and then wake up as winners after the game. This is pretty self-explanatory. This are the type of lines where the spreads does not actually conform to what people perceive as fairly set spread. If the line stinks, then it's fishy indeed.
    How to win? Go with the underdogs! WTF BUT WHY?!! Let's go back to the OKC@WAS +1.0. FOR VERY OBVIOUS REASONS, people will bet on OKC. If all turns out well, the consensus will show about 70%-90% of bets on this side. For you to understand this, let's say that you are the bookie. As the bookie, what side do you want to cover? The favorites?..then pay them ALL the BIG BETS they wagered? Or have the dogs win and get that 70%-90% bets from the public? 
    The tally (4-1)



    Fatigue Factor Theory
    This is when a team is playing its 4th game in 5 days, 5th game in 7 days,etc. This also applies to 4 road games back to back. Well, you get the picture. When one team is rested, and the other is winded up, expect for a let down.
    How to win? Well, go for the rested ones. Simple. This Theory is tricky, but (personally) effective. Look for teams that have played 4 games in 5 days. Look also for those teams that played 2OT the night before...those that played with the MIA, OKC and LAC in 3 days straight..even a well rested WAS will kill any team that is fatigued.
    The tally (5-0)


    The theories stated above are NOT FACTS and does not apply to ALL games. OKC are called road warriors and the fatigue theory wont make you winners against this team. RLM does not work all the time, favorites are called favorites because they can crash teams if they wanted to. And lastly, TRAP games may not be a trap after all. But if used wisely and backed up with a good mind, I'm pretty sure that every now and then, these will make some of us winners.

    BOL TO ALL!
    p.s. Thanks MAVIN 
     
    washhead
    washhead
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 510
    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 2:42 PM ET #3574

    I'm taking Dallas -6.5 (0-1 yesterday, 4-4 on this thread).  As noted earlier, Minnesota has been playing poorly without Adelman on the sidelines, and tonight is their fourth game in five nights (not their third in four like I stated previously).  The bench is weak -- getting Barea back helps, but if Lazar Hayward is called on for double-digit minutes like last night it's not a good sign.  I'm checking at halftime for a possible 2H play on DAL as well, MIN has been outscored by 10 or more in the 2H of their last 4 games. 

    Dallas looks good with Dirk being worked back into the lineup, and DAL is actually above .500 at home despite their poor overall record.  They should cover comfortably, although it may be close at the half. 
    Reply
    I'm taking Dallas -6.5 (0-1 yesterday, 4-4 on this thread).  As noted earlier, Minnesota has been playing poorly without Adelman on the sidelines, and tonight is their fourth game in five nights (not their third in four like I stated previously).  The bench is weak -- getting Barea back helps, but if Lazar Hayward is called on for double-digit minutes like last night it's not a good sign.  I'm checking at halftime for a possible 2H play on DAL as well, MIN has been outscored by 10 or more in the 2H of their last 4 games. 

    Dallas looks good with Dirk being worked back into the lineup, and DAL is actually above .500 at home despite their poor overall record.  They should cover comfortably, although it may be close at the half. 
     
     
    uste_13
    uste_13
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 40
    Posted: Jan. 14, 2013 - 2:48 PM ET #3575

    SAC -5.0 (my bookie)

    FATIGUE FACTOR - CLE is winded up for sure. 4th game in 5 days. Played against LAL last night and was given a blowout. PLUS SAC rested and fumed to win coming from being given a blowout too. SAC NEEDS this win to get going again.

    Nonetheless, whatever your picks, may it be the Seattle Supersonics, BEST OF LUCK! 
    Reply
    SAC -5.0 (my bookie)

    FATIGUE FACTOR - CLE is winded up for sure. 4th game in 5 days. Played against LAL last night and was given a blowout. PLUS SAC rested and fumed to win coming from being given a blowout too. SAC NEEDS this win to get going again.

    Nonetheless, whatever your picks, may it be the Seattle Supersonics, BEST OF LUCK! 
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