Posted:
#1276
A little thought that may or may not be helpful that I use in capping games is "think opposite." It doesn't translate exactly to what I want it to mean, but I will explain. This is NOT a fade yourself strategy.
Too many people get caught up in streaks or prior performances in gambling. Team put up x points last week, they beat so and so by 20 and this team lost by 15 so they will blow them out. Vegas is not a bunch of dummies. Whether it is year over year, week to week, or month to month they attempt to make corrections. We need to account for those corrections in the right spots.
Too many people get caught up in streaks or prior performances in gambling. Team put up x points last week, they beat so and so by 20 and this team lost by 15 so they will blow them out. Vegas is not a bunch of dummies. Whether it is year over year, week to week, or month to month they attempt to make corrections. We need to account for those corrections in the right spots.
A classic starting point is looking at a teams record the prior year against the spread. If a team performed at an exceptional clip ATS, look for Vegas to attempt to make a correction the follow year. This year the Colts, Seahawks, Rams, and Skins were 11-5 ATS. One of things I will do going into next football season is to believe Vegas is going to try and correct this. This just one piece, but I will use that to pick spots against those 4 teams. I am not saying to fade all 4 for 16 games. I am saying I will use this as a piece of information when picks are involving those squads. (Obviously there are teams that were awful ATS as well and I will find spots the following year they can be plays.)
Again it's only one small part, but figured I would throw it out there. I am not sure if Mavin uses this or thinks like this, but it is something that has helped me. I will try and post some other "think opposite" strategy points when I have time.
None of these by themselves make a play, but are all little pieces that I use to try and beat the books.
Good luck this evening fine gents.
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gonna wait for your picks on tommorow's games 
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