yeah melossinglet i should have waited closer to game time to see that faried was playing. I liked the bet because i thought the line was big at 9 but you were deff right, it was a bad pick. No biggie though just took some notes on the game and will learn for next time. Looking real bad with GS right now prob gonna end at 4-2...
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yeah melossinglet i should have waited closer to game time to see that faried was playing. I liked the bet because i thought the line was big at 9 but you were deff right, it was a bad pick. No biggie though just took some notes on the game and will learn for next time. Looking real bad with GS right now prob gonna end at 4-2...
One thing that is very important to realize is that Mavin does run this thread. In other words when he tells me to stop doing something I take it for what it is. We want this to be like a community where everyone is able to give picks and more importantly elaborate on your picks to help others. It's not like everyone that posts their picks doesnt know what they are doing and even Mavin himself can learn, I mean we all can. With that being said the persons picks to follow are definitely mavins because he has the most solid past, record, experience and inside information. Don't praise someone when you use his picks and win, to just turn around and get mad when you lose or when he is busy. He is busy for the exact questions you want the answers to. Mavin is incredibly patient with everyone and I'm not trying to speak for him, rather just giving my take on how we should all work together, win together and be happy together. If someone fades me on a pick or if someone picks differently for me, I dont get mad, I get interested. Interested into what i missed with the pick and why he likes it. There is no need to be hostile and argumentative. We all get mad when we lose sometimes (i know I do lol) but if we can help each other out and be positive with each other, we can all figure out ways to get more money and stay happy. THATS WHY MAN U ALWAYS SAYS BOL TO EVERYONE....because it doesn't matter if your opinion is different then mine ....and everyone is here on this thread because your looking for picks and to become a better handicapper. Well, if we all stay patient I believe we all can become better, I know from Mavins help that I already have. BOL TO EVERYONE ON THEIR PICKS....
Thanks Melo for the kind words. it's truly well said. 4-1, 4-2, 4-3 still a good nite bro
the most important thing is a positive nite. U have done well melo!!
BOL to you and all for tomorrow
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Quote Originally Posted by melosjumper7:
One thing that is very important to realize is that Mavin does run this thread. In other words when he tells me to stop doing something I take it for what it is. We want this to be like a community where everyone is able to give picks and more importantly elaborate on your picks to help others. It's not like everyone that posts their picks doesnt know what they are doing and even Mavin himself can learn, I mean we all can. With that being said the persons picks to follow are definitely mavins because he has the most solid past, record, experience and inside information. Don't praise someone when you use his picks and win, to just turn around and get mad when you lose or when he is busy. He is busy for the exact questions you want the answers to. Mavin is incredibly patient with everyone and I'm not trying to speak for him, rather just giving my take on how we should all work together, win together and be happy together. If someone fades me on a pick or if someone picks differently for me, I dont get mad, I get interested. Interested into what i missed with the pick and why he likes it. There is no need to be hostile and argumentative. We all get mad when we lose sometimes (i know I do lol) but if we can help each other out and be positive with each other, we can all figure out ways to get more money and stay happy. THATS WHY MAN U ALWAYS SAYS BOL TO EVERYONE....because it doesn't matter if your opinion is different then mine ....and everyone is here on this thread because your looking for picks and to become a better handicapper. Well, if we all stay patient I believe we all can become better, I know from Mavins help that I already have. BOL TO EVERYONE ON THEIR PICKS....
Thanks Melo for the kind words. it's truly well said. 4-1, 4-2, 4-3 still a good nite bro
the most important thing is a positive nite. U have done well melo!!
I've lurked forever, but this is the best thread I've ever seen so I haven't posted. Hadn't started tailing yet, but really appreciate SportsMavin's insight into capping. Made my first ever NBA bet on Houston tonight. Thanks to all. And even more than that, the spirit of cooperation that he's been able to foster is great. That to me, is what this should be all about. Melosjumper7 love reading your thoughts on the game.
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I've lurked forever, but this is the best thread I've ever seen so I haven't posted. Hadn't started tailing yet, but really appreciate SportsMavin's insight into capping. Made my first ever NBA bet on Houston tonight. Thanks to all. And even more than that, the spirit of cooperation that he's been able to foster is great. That to me, is what this should be all about. Melosjumper7 love reading your thoughts on the game.
Melos don´t reply those kids, just ignore them. This thread has been amazing because all are participating. And if I remember well this seems the largest thread in covers for long time right?
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Melos don´t reply those kids, just ignore them. This thread has been amazing because all are participating. And if I remember well this seems the largest thread in covers for long time right?
Old-Jax, great call on New Orleans. I totally misread it. Didnt play the game but thought Dallas would start geling with Dirk. I did play your Denver pick and all of Mavins. Thanks to you both!
Yeah golden state looking horrible but what can u do? That's the great and frustrating thing about sports is anything can happen. I really thought GS would keep the game close at least. Oh well with football I ended the day 6-1, certainly not complaining here!
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Quote Originally Posted by oreooreo1:
Old-Jax, great call on New Orleans. I totally misread it. Didnt play the game but thought Dallas would start geling with Dirk. I did play your Denver pick and all of Mavins. Thanks to you both!
Yeah golden state looking horrible but what can u do? That's the great and frustrating thing about sports is anything can happen. I really thought GS would keep the game close at least. Oh well with football I ended the day 6-1, certainly not complaining here!
mmm,in denver im quickly learning theres no such thing as a BIG line melos...normally depends on the mood theyre in whether they cover or not,no matter wat the line.....by no means wud i consider them elite(neither wud u i presume),but theres just sumthin about that atmosphere and altitude that lets them play with great confidence.one of the best home-court edges in sports.
i usually pass on denver home games cos bookies know this and try 2 get away with all kinds of spreads
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mmm,in denver im quickly learning theres no such thing as a BIG line melos...normally depends on the mood theyre in whether they cover or not,no matter wat the line.....by no means wud i consider them elite(neither wud u i presume),but theres just sumthin about that atmosphere and altitude that lets them play with great confidence.one of the best home-court edges in sports.
i usually pass on denver home games cos bookies know this and try 2 get away with all kinds of spreads
end night 4-2...kinda disappointing last 2 games but no matter...as Mavin always says consistency is the goal here. Still 27-13 with 3 big upset straight up picks that uppped my units.....
Once Again Mavin Thanks For Everything
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end night 4-2...kinda disappointing last 2 games but no matter...as Mavin always says consistency is the goal here. Still 27-13 with 3 big upset straight up picks that uppped my units.....
guys i had to sign up to this to show my appriciation to you two!! loving this form and the picks and the help you guys give all of us!! have much respect for you guys!! coz of you both my next holiday (end of the month) is almost free :o)
cheers again guys!!! ill try be active and give my props to you both when im on!
peace from the aussie down under !!
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ay melo and marvin!!
guys i had to sign up to this to show my appriciation to you two!! loving this form and the picks and the help you guys give all of us!! have much respect for you guys!! coz of you both my next holiday (end of the month) is almost free :o)
cheers again guys!!! ill try be active and give my props to you both when im on!
raptors game looks interesting..line opened at 7.5 and with 80%+ of the public pounding okc, the line has moved to 6.5.
raps have won 3 of last 4 at home SU against okc
okc are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games.
raps look like the play, but have reservations in pulling the trigger here. interested in your take, mavin
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raptors game looks interesting..line opened at 7.5 and with 80%+ of the public pounding okc, the line has moved to 6.5.
raps have won 3 of last 4 at home SU against okc
okc are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games.
raps look like the play, but have reservations in pulling the trigger here. interested in your take, mavin
Been watching this thread from the beginning and have been really enjoying and appreciating your time and efforts in outlining everything you do and also the rest of the posters here, Melos et al who have been adding their well thought out observations.
So to note I live in Oz and have been thinking about taking some time off to look after the kids before the last one heads off for school and instead of working a couple of days here and there I thought I would road test myself to see if I could have any success capping the NBA. A couple of years ago I was in a tipping contest with the NBA and was hitting 60% ATS for between 150-200 bets (I didn't realize at the time 60% was gold) but was only betting real money on about a tenth of those games and the ones I was putting money on was only hitting 50% at best and ended up getting frustrated with the whole thing and gave it away. Afterall NBA is a grind, reading reviews of 13 game card and then previews for a 12 game card becomes a little tiring after awhile specially when you have limited time to devote to it and it is every day, the flip side of that is with the amount of games and scheduling it gives some nice spots to bet in.
Just for the record, I'm not delusional, I know this is a hard, hard road to walk and you just don't wake up one day to be a Pro-Capper and it's not a license to print money but a lot of studying and hard work is involved. I set myself a three step program, make my picks everyday for two months and track how I go, if this is successful, go in with small money for say $10 bets until the end of the season, if this also successful then step in with some real dollars for next season.
Started well, thought how easy is this was pushing above 65% for first week, although knew it couldn't continue but have really been spinning my wheels hard for the last three or so weeks, only had a couple of bad losing days but lots of little losing days and 50/50 splits so it's becoming clear I need to move towards more selective betting. I believe I've got a feel for my really good bets, for instance I love good solid home squads who don't have a great overall record and are playing against teams with a good overall record but who don't necessarily have a great overall record. Eg - yesterday Boston at home to Indiana, Detroit home to Atlanta (Although I flipped and went Atlanta late due to a line movement but liked Detroit originally..oops) however also liked Phoenix at home to Utah and Bucks home to Rockets but in general I feel that is a really good spot especially after the good solid home squad has had a poor road trip. But theres note enough plays in these spots to keep me going so have to add a few more weapons to my arsenal.
So with great interest I have been reading all your posts to learn and also really appreciative of others jumping in with their stuff as well. I really enjoyed the detailed analysis of spreads and line movements and before reading this I was aware of reverse line movements and the sharp/public money but had never been aware that their were false line movements started by the books to sucker you in and now having read it, it makes perfect sense why they would do this.
Anyways have been paying attention to totals (have never bothered before) , line movements and consensus on covers. Both Houstons and Denver last 2 games have seen either an over or under heavily favored (or a fifty split) and for a big reverse line move (4 points) with the four games going in favor of the line move. Seems too good to be true....
I appreciate any more info you have too give on this subject with a couple of random questions floating through my head such as:
In general do the sharps mostly all recognize the same games to hit (I'm thinking more or less yes) and in general I'm assuming bet against the public money and therefore would they step in early knowing that other sharps will step in early and drive the line out or will they wait to see what happens with the public money and try and get a couple of points going their way.
Some times you'll see lines trending downwards, maybe not a lot but a little and then a little half point jump the other way. In general where does the late money come from, sharps or public or a whole lot of mixture of both.
At what point do we think the value would be gone, a 4 point line move is steep, I'm thinking long term if you wait for a line to move 4 points it is going to cut out a lot of the advantage of following the sharp money.
Apologies if these are infantile questions, just trying to get a handle on what I'm seeing.
Apologies also for long, long post, hopefully with it being out of NBA business hours it won't clog up the thread.
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Hi Mavin,
Been watching this thread from the beginning and have been really enjoying and appreciating your time and efforts in outlining everything you do and also the rest of the posters here, Melos et al who have been adding their well thought out observations.
So to note I live in Oz and have been thinking about taking some time off to look after the kids before the last one heads off for school and instead of working a couple of days here and there I thought I would road test myself to see if I could have any success capping the NBA. A couple of years ago I was in a tipping contest with the NBA and was hitting 60% ATS for between 150-200 bets (I didn't realize at the time 60% was gold) but was only betting real money on about a tenth of those games and the ones I was putting money on was only hitting 50% at best and ended up getting frustrated with the whole thing and gave it away. Afterall NBA is a grind, reading reviews of 13 game card and then previews for a 12 game card becomes a little tiring after awhile specially when you have limited time to devote to it and it is every day, the flip side of that is with the amount of games and scheduling it gives some nice spots to bet in.
Just for the record, I'm not delusional, I know this is a hard, hard road to walk and you just don't wake up one day to be a Pro-Capper and it's not a license to print money but a lot of studying and hard work is involved. I set myself a three step program, make my picks everyday for two months and track how I go, if this is successful, go in with small money for say $10 bets until the end of the season, if this also successful then step in with some real dollars for next season.
Started well, thought how easy is this was pushing above 65% for first week, although knew it couldn't continue but have really been spinning my wheels hard for the last three or so weeks, only had a couple of bad losing days but lots of little losing days and 50/50 splits so it's becoming clear I need to move towards more selective betting. I believe I've got a feel for my really good bets, for instance I love good solid home squads who don't have a great overall record and are playing against teams with a good overall record but who don't necessarily have a great overall record. Eg - yesterday Boston at home to Indiana, Detroit home to Atlanta (Although I flipped and went Atlanta late due to a line movement but liked Detroit originally..oops) however also liked Phoenix at home to Utah and Bucks home to Rockets but in general I feel that is a really good spot especially after the good solid home squad has had a poor road trip. But theres note enough plays in these spots to keep me going so have to add a few more weapons to my arsenal.
So with great interest I have been reading all your posts to learn and also really appreciative of others jumping in with their stuff as well. I really enjoyed the detailed analysis of spreads and line movements and before reading this I was aware of reverse line movements and the sharp/public money but had never been aware that their were false line movements started by the books to sucker you in and now having read it, it makes perfect sense why they would do this.
Anyways have been paying attention to totals (have never bothered before) , line movements and consensus on covers. Both Houstons and Denver last 2 games have seen either an over or under heavily favored (or a fifty split) and for a big reverse line move (4 points) with the four games going in favor of the line move. Seems too good to be true....
I appreciate any more info you have too give on this subject with a couple of random questions floating through my head such as:
In general do the sharps mostly all recognize the same games to hit (I'm thinking more or less yes) and in general I'm assuming bet against the public money and therefore would they step in early knowing that other sharps will step in early and drive the line out or will they wait to see what happens with the public money and try and get a couple of points going their way.
Some times you'll see lines trending downwards, maybe not a lot but a little and then a little half point jump the other way. In general where does the late money come from, sharps or public or a whole lot of mixture of both.
At what point do we think the value would be gone, a 4 point line move is steep, I'm thinking long term if you wait for a line to move 4 points it is going to cut out a lot of the advantage of following the sharp money.
Apologies if these are infantile questions, just trying to get a handle on what I'm seeing.
Apologies also for long, long post, hopefully with it being out of NBA business hours it won't clog up the thread.
Had a good day today. Had my bet on hou and ny both +7. I had to call it 7 hours before the game since thats how its done with my bookie. Luckily, had the same call as melo and mavin. Guess i am starting to learn. Thanks guys! Ended the week for me up!
To try to see if i have learned a little:
OKC@TOR+6.5
It was discussed by gcee that the line moved from 7 to 6.5, opposite the public's choice. The way i see it is that the bookies are trying to lure the public to bet on okc thinking its a steal. So maybe they are on the side of TOR
The last 10 games of TOR resulted into a 8-2 record. Pretty good. Note though that one of their loss came from a winning team, spurs, where they lost by 20. The other loss came from SAC behind big game by cousins. The 8 wins came from average teams to below ave. mostly below ave.
OKC has won an average of 13pts on 8 away wins while 5.5 on 4 losses.
Following this, i am tempted to go against the books and join in the public. The only thing stopping me is the schedule of OKC. 5away games in a span of 9 days starting with TOR. They have one home game in the middle. They way i see it, okc might pace it. They will win but they might not cover.
I have a really slight lean towards okc but honestly i believe that my research and conclusions need refining. I posted this mostly to show Mavin that I am trying to learn. I hope you can shed some more light.
Thanks!
Sadly, my bookie closes 7hours before 7am games so i cant really tail and i have to do reads on my own. Unless sometimes Mavin or Melo posts early.
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Had a good day today. Had my bet on hou and ny both +7. I had to call it 7 hours before the game since thats how its done with my bookie. Luckily, had the same call as melo and mavin. Guess i am starting to learn. Thanks guys! Ended the week for me up!
To try to see if i have learned a little:
OKC@TOR+6.5
It was discussed by gcee that the line moved from 7 to 6.5, opposite the public's choice. The way i see it is that the bookies are trying to lure the public to bet on okc thinking its a steal. So maybe they are on the side of TOR
The last 10 games of TOR resulted into a 8-2 record. Pretty good. Note though that one of their loss came from a winning team, spurs, where they lost by 20. The other loss came from SAC behind big game by cousins. The 8 wins came from average teams to below ave. mostly below ave.
OKC has won an average of 13pts on 8 away wins while 5.5 on 4 losses.
Following this, i am tempted to go against the books and join in the public. The only thing stopping me is the schedule of OKC. 5away games in a span of 9 days starting with TOR. They have one home game in the middle. They way i see it, okc might pace it. They will win but they might not cover.
I have a really slight lean towards okc but honestly i believe that my research and conclusions need refining. I posted this mostly to show Mavin that I am trying to learn. I hope you can shed some more light.
Thanks!
Sadly, my bookie closes 7hours before 7am games so i cant really tail and i have to do reads on my own. Unless sometimes Mavin or Melo posts early.
Also, okc has the fewest road games i think? SAS has won more away games than away games played by okc. Not sure how this reflects anything but wantsed to throw it out there.
Also, i took out the bloated win of okc over hou and they still averaged 10pts on away wins.
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Also, okc has the fewest road games i think? SAS has won more away games than away games played by okc. Not sure how this reflects anything but wantsed to throw it out there.
Also, i took out the bloated win of okc over hou and they still averaged 10pts on away wins.
oreooreo thats killer man,wolves MUST b cursed!!!its a shame cos they cud b a real upstart team in the west,cud surprise a few folks wen healthy.also one of my favorite teams.
regarding toronto,at 1st sight seems to me value is on raptors but i hav the same reservations expressed by chups.they been real impressive in sharing the ball and locking teams down in this stretch,but wat teams???pretty powder-puff schedule they hav been through and i feel like sitting this one out cud b the best option personally to get a feel on how thunder attacks their road trip and raptors fare against top drawer opposition.
will watch the line but my view is any value to b had is raptors.......people will b scared 2 back them due to "big-name" syndrome..thunder hav plenty and raptors hav none
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oreooreo thats killer man,wolves MUST b cursed!!!its a shame cos they cud b a real upstart team in the west,cud surprise a few folks wen healthy.also one of my favorite teams.
regarding toronto,at 1st sight seems to me value is on raptors but i hav the same reservations expressed by chups.they been real impressive in sharing the ball and locking teams down in this stretch,but wat teams???pretty powder-puff schedule they hav been through and i feel like sitting this one out cud b the best option personally to get a feel on how thunder attacks their road trip and raptors fare against top drawer opposition.
will watch the line but my view is any value to b had is raptors.......people will b scared 2 back them due to "big-name" syndrome..thunder hav plenty and raptors hav none
Doubt Mavin will go for this line it's not his style nor mine. The Thunder could cover the spread if they tried, but most top teams motivation is always a question mark except under certain circumstances, thus making this one too predictable.
Personally, nothing looks good to me tomorrow yet. Will see if others have different opinions
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To try to see if i have learned a little:
OKC@TOR+6.5
[/Quote]
Doubt Mavin will go for this line it's not his style nor mine. The Thunder could cover the spread if they tried, but most top teams motivation is always a question mark except under certain circumstances, thus making this one too predictable.
Personally, nothing looks good to me tomorrow yet. Will see if others have different opinions
Same as stocktrader, nothing seems good as of the moment.
Though line for detroit might seem a little too bloated. Yes they have a small winning streak but their wins seem to be close games for me. Aside from wins over depleted was.
Maybe reason for the line is how CHA are really bad away. They tend to lose bad...
Melossinglet
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Same as stocktrader, nothing seems good as of the moment.
Though line for detroit might seem a little too bloated. Yes they have a small winning streak but their wins seem to be close games for me. Aside from wins over depleted was.
Maybe reason for the line is how CHA are really bad away. They tend to lose bad...
yep chups its a pretty ugly card allrite,i dont see much i like...sumthing of interest is the notion that detroit really beats up on bad teams usually(probably realising it is their only opportunity to get wins)and is 5-0 in their last 5 vs bobcats with an ave.winning margin of 14.4.....nothing 2 gloat about but appears bobcats may b sumwat of a b@#!h for them.....still dont trust them however
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yep chups its a pretty ugly card allrite,i dont see much i like...sumthing of interest is the notion that detroit really beats up on bad teams usually(probably realising it is their only opportunity to get wins)and is 5-0 in their last 5 vs bobcats with an ave.winning margin of 14.4.....nothing 2 gloat about but appears bobcats may b sumwat of a b@#!h for them.....still dont trust them however
Since we already increased the bankroll from 2000$ to 3135$ - our units are becoming 150$. Each time - as I said - we'll increase the bankroll by 1000$ - it will result in increasing the size of our unit by 50$. (of course who's units were whatever - will increase it in the same proportion)
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Since we already increased the bankroll from 2000$ to 3135$ - our units are becoming 150$. Each time - as I said - we'll increase the bankroll by 1000$ - it will result in increasing the size of our unit by 50$. (of course who's units were whatever - will increase it in the same proportion)
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my bookie closes in 6.5 hours. I a feeling though they wont play spreads tonight.
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