I am not going to make any friends with this post/comment,
but if there is one (maybe two or three) of you out there that has the capacity
to improve in this game, this will help you more than anything you ever read,
yes … ‘ever’… I will explain what I have seen that is guaranteeing your losing
results, and offer what I think is the perfect analogy that will open your eyes
once and for all (if that is possible for you individually).
This is sparked by some comments I got on Saturday and
others I have read/seen many times in the last few months (and I barely read
any Friday comments, these are just the comments that were on the last page as
I posted final numbers for Friday). “I
lost a lot of money today, but I seen you pull out of this in the past” MY
REPLY: How did
you lose? Monday thru Friday you were
still at plus money. NEXT, “Not
the day we were hoping for” MY REPLY: In what way did I
EVER elude to my ‘hoping’ for any daily result?. NEXT :
“Well today was a bad day, hopefully we’ll turn this around tomorrow” MY REPLY: there is NO
SUCH THING as a good, or bad day, unless you are a losing player and will
continue to be a losing player (until you change that thought process…explained
below). Wake up people, or stop donating
actually money in hopes that something will magically change without you
changing first.
0
Ok brothers,
I am not going to make any friends with this post/comment,
but if there is one (maybe two or three) of you out there that has the capacity
to improve in this game, this will help you more than anything you ever read,
yes … ‘ever’… I will explain what I have seen that is guaranteeing your losing
results, and offer what I think is the perfect analogy that will open your eyes
once and for all (if that is possible for you individually).
This is sparked by some comments I got on Saturday and
others I have read/seen many times in the last few months (and I barely read
any Friday comments, these are just the comments that were on the last page as
I posted final numbers for Friday). “I
lost a lot of money today, but I seen you pull out of this in the past” MY
REPLY: How did
you lose? Monday thru Friday you were
still at plus money. NEXT, “Not
the day we were hoping for” MY REPLY: In what way did I
EVER elude to my ‘hoping’ for any daily result?. NEXT :
“Well today was a bad day, hopefully we’ll turn this around tomorrow” MY REPLY: there is NO
SUCH THING as a good, or bad day, unless you are a losing player and will
continue to be a losing player (until you change that thought process…explained
below). Wake up people, or stop donating
actually money in hopes that something will magically change without you
changing first.
I have worked my brain trying to figure out how I can talk
every single day about a very simple concept that virtually (there are a
couple, literally only a couple) VERY people who seem to have the capacity to ‘get
it’. I will put modesty to the side, and
not worry about how I am being perceived for a moment in order to attempt to finally get through to a few of you that have the intellectual
and emotional capacity to grasp this concept.
I know that sounds bad, but I am simply being honest, I have written a
multiple paragraph ‘essay’ and posted it on Covers explaining this exact point,
speak about it every single day, and yet most people on my thread every day are
not one inch closer to understanding this.
This game is beaten by those whose actions and decisions are dictated by
logic, and for the other 99.9% (I used to say 90, then 95, then 98, and now I
am convinced that 99.9% ) of people in this game are controlled almost
exclusively by their most primal instincts in ‘gambling’ (i.e. ughh, must win
now, ugh … hungry…..ugh… must bet all, must bet all….ugh can’t lose, never
lose) That sounds so insulting, I know,
but someone needs to show 99.9% of you a mirror, or you will (and I PROMISE YOU
THAT MOST OF YOU ARE) leak money like a sieve.
I am perplexed as I watch most of you continually repeat the exact same
routine, the exact same dialog, the exact same actions/reaction over and over,
lose, and repeat exactly to perfection.
I just simply cannot understand it at all, not a bit. Anything I have ever wanted to excel at, I
would indulge, evaluate, make changes, evaluate, indulge, evaluate over and
over until I found the right formula, thought process, focus, actions that got
me the result that I desired. People in
this game follow a formula of indulge, repeat, indulge, repeat, ect. I think I have the exact analogy that may
help the extreme few that desire to improve, are willing to fight their
destructive nature, willing to change, and willing to work at it—those people
will be the extreme few that succeed. I
honestly don’t know if it is just I overestimated the cerebral capacity of the
average human being for most of my life, or if this game sparks a ‘nerve’ in
most human beings that triggers an uncontrollable (almost hypnotizing) response
in people that only a unique small portion of society are impervious to, I
really cannot say which it is, maybe it is a combinations of both.
0
I have worked my brain trying to figure out how I can talk
every single day about a very simple concept that virtually (there are a
couple, literally only a couple) VERY people who seem to have the capacity to ‘get
it’. I will put modesty to the side, and
not worry about how I am being perceived for a moment in order to attempt to finally get through to a few of you that have the intellectual
and emotional capacity to grasp this concept.
I know that sounds bad, but I am simply being honest, I have written a
multiple paragraph ‘essay’ and posted it on Covers explaining this exact point,
speak about it every single day, and yet most people on my thread every day are
not one inch closer to understanding this.
This game is beaten by those whose actions and decisions are dictated by
logic, and for the other 99.9% (I used to say 90, then 95, then 98, and now I
am convinced that 99.9% ) of people in this game are controlled almost
exclusively by their most primal instincts in ‘gambling’ (i.e. ughh, must win
now, ugh … hungry…..ugh… must bet all, must bet all….ugh can’t lose, never
lose) That sounds so insulting, I know,
but someone needs to show 99.9% of you a mirror, or you will (and I PROMISE YOU
THAT MOST OF YOU ARE) leak money like a sieve.
I am perplexed as I watch most of you continually repeat the exact same
routine, the exact same dialog, the exact same actions/reaction over and over,
lose, and repeat exactly to perfection.
I just simply cannot understand it at all, not a bit. Anything I have ever wanted to excel at, I
would indulge, evaluate, make changes, evaluate, indulge, evaluate over and
over until I found the right formula, thought process, focus, actions that got
me the result that I desired. People in
this game follow a formula of indulge, repeat, indulge, repeat, ect. I think I have the exact analogy that may
help the extreme few that desire to improve, are willing to fight their
destructive nature, willing to change, and willing to work at it—those people
will be the extreme few that succeed. I
honestly don’t know if it is just I overestimated the cerebral capacity of the
average human being for most of my life, or if this game sparks a ‘nerve’ in
most human beings that triggers an uncontrollable (almost hypnotizing) response
in people that only a unique small portion of society are impervious to, I
really cannot say which it is, maybe it is a combinations of both.
Imagine you are waiting at a huge thick steel door at 12:01
am Monday standing next to a man in a black suit who also waiting at this
door. The door’s auto lock releases, and
both of you enter through the door. You
walk in and see a big room completely empty with the exception of a very large
pile of money in the middle of the room, and in two opposite corners are
notebooks and writing utensils. You go
to one corner with a notebook and pen, and the man in the black suit does the
same in his opposite corner. On one wall
there is a clock, on the other there are numerous flat screen TVs. You write down plays you want to make on that
days games, and a runner will take your plays and walk them over to the man in
the black suit, he reads each one, and every time he does, he then looks at you
and nods in approval/acceptance. At the
end of Monday’s games, the runner will tally your wins / losses, and ask you
for an IOU if you were negative, or bring you cash in the amount you were
positive for that day. This process is
repeated every day until Sunday evening at 11:59 pm at which time you will
write a check to the man in the black suit for your losses, or the runner will
get you a suitcase to carry your winning in as you depart the room.
0
The analogy:
Imagine you are waiting at a huge thick steel door at 12:01
am Monday standing next to a man in a black suit who also waiting at this
door. The door’s auto lock releases, and
both of you enter through the door. You
walk in and see a big room completely empty with the exception of a very large
pile of money in the middle of the room, and in two opposite corners are
notebooks and writing utensils. You go
to one corner with a notebook and pen, and the man in the black suit does the
same in his opposite corner. On one wall
there is a clock, on the other there are numerous flat screen TVs. You write down plays you want to make on that
days games, and a runner will take your plays and walk them over to the man in
the black suit, he reads each one, and every time he does, he then looks at you
and nods in approval/acceptance. At the
end of Monday’s games, the runner will tally your wins / losses, and ask you
for an IOU if you were negative, or bring you cash in the amount you were
positive for that day. This process is
repeated every day until Sunday evening at 11:59 pm at which time you will
write a check to the man in the black suit for your losses, or the runner will
get you a suitcase to carry your winning in as you depart the room.
You had no winnings or losses between Monday at 12:01 am and
Sunday at 11:59 pm; the money was not even real until you depart the room. Because it isn’t real, you stay logical and
unemotional, and make solid decisions and have clear vision. Your focus is to leave the room with as much
money as you can, so if you are up decently on Thursday or Friday, you’ll want
to loosen up your play to maximize your profits, you’ll want to jump on the
weekend series of games by handicapping 3 games forward, calculate your exact
possible win percentage on winning at least 1 of those games between the Padres
and the Mariners, and between the White Sox and the A’s. You are operating with possible Sunday night
profit, so you can make plays that actually have a better chance of losing as
opposed to winning that particular day knowing that you will (in most cases)
actually make more profit if it loses today, and wins tomorrow or Sunday. This is the concept of ‘embracing losses’. If you are down for the week on Friday, or
Saturday, you are not worried because you had already been handicapping the
latest Sunday games to the deepest possible levels… leaving virtually nothing
to chance so you can go big on those game knowing that you know every aspect of
those few games, and can expect to win 80+% of those late games. This also comes in handy when you go into
Sunday showing strong profits, because then you can take a large portion of
your profits (keeping a percentage back to guarantee a profit for when you
leave the room) to really put a hurt on the man in the black suit. The feeble minded call this a ‘chase’, when
in reality it is a calculated fail safe, or a calculated seizure of an opportunity. The mindless blind on here have seen me put a
couple K in action on Sunday nights and claim “you are playing with fake money”
because of it. Lol, think about it, look
at my results, and know the results you see are the worst of my season, and ask
yourself, “hmmm, I wonder if he has a few grand to put in play”?. Once more, the idiocy of the mind of the
gambler is beyond my comprehension.
0
You had no winnings or losses between Monday at 12:01 am and
Sunday at 11:59 pm; the money was not even real until you depart the room. Because it isn’t real, you stay logical and
unemotional, and make solid decisions and have clear vision. Your focus is to leave the room with as much
money as you can, so if you are up decently on Thursday or Friday, you’ll want
to loosen up your play to maximize your profits, you’ll want to jump on the
weekend series of games by handicapping 3 games forward, calculate your exact
possible win percentage on winning at least 1 of those games between the Padres
and the Mariners, and between the White Sox and the A’s. You are operating with possible Sunday night
profit, so you can make plays that actually have a better chance of losing as
opposed to winning that particular day knowing that you will (in most cases)
actually make more profit if it loses today, and wins tomorrow or Sunday. This is the concept of ‘embracing losses’. If you are down for the week on Friday, or
Saturday, you are not worried because you had already been handicapping the
latest Sunday games to the deepest possible levels… leaving virtually nothing
to chance so you can go big on those game knowing that you know every aspect of
those few games, and can expect to win 80+% of those late games. This also comes in handy when you go into
Sunday showing strong profits, because then you can take a large portion of
your profits (keeping a percentage back to guarantee a profit for when you
leave the room) to really put a hurt on the man in the black suit. The feeble minded call this a ‘chase’, when
in reality it is a calculated fail safe, or a calculated seizure of an opportunity. The mindless blind on here have seen me put a
couple K in action on Sunday nights and claim “you are playing with fake money”
because of it. Lol, think about it, look
at my results, and know the results you see are the worst of my season, and ask
yourself, “hmmm, I wonder if he has a few grand to put in play”?. Once more, the idiocy of the mind of the
gambler is beyond my comprehension.
The moral of the story is that it is not real daily, and if
it is, you are someone who bases your success and failure on a daily basis and
should contact Covers to follow their plays and make NO DECISIONS of your own. This will cause emotion that will suffocate
your logical potential, and the Bookmaker wants NOTHING more because then you’ll
make numerous mistakes, do utterly stupid things and then chase (the
uncalculated, not thought through rash, and desperate attempts to recover
losses fast).
To the logical, calculating mind, this is a chess game
between you and the Bookmaker. For most
of you, it is like a chess master (book maker) vs. a 10 year old child who just
learned how the pieces move because they have planned out each step, and
logically evaluate results and make changes every day, while you pace in front
of the TV, praying for God to give you this one game this one time and you’ll
go to church from that point forward, lol, it is just so unnecessary. People are so stupid you can go on Covers,
post your plays, people follow you, you win them money for months, and you have
a day that most of your plays lose and these people freak out and say you are
cold, and talk about the money they lost, lol… I am fascinated by the mind of
the gambler and have learned more from you than you did from me, just fascinating.
0
The moral of the story is that it is not real daily, and if
it is, you are someone who bases your success and failure on a daily basis and
should contact Covers to follow their plays and make NO DECISIONS of your own. This will cause emotion that will suffocate
your logical potential, and the Bookmaker wants NOTHING more because then you’ll
make numerous mistakes, do utterly stupid things and then chase (the
uncalculated, not thought through rash, and desperate attempts to recover
losses fast).
To the logical, calculating mind, this is a chess game
between you and the Bookmaker. For most
of you, it is like a chess master (book maker) vs. a 10 year old child who just
learned how the pieces move because they have planned out each step, and
logically evaluate results and make changes every day, while you pace in front
of the TV, praying for God to give you this one game this one time and you’ll
go to church from that point forward, lol, it is just so unnecessary. People are so stupid you can go on Covers,
post your plays, people follow you, you win them money for months, and you have
a day that most of your plays lose and these people freak out and say you are
cold, and talk about the money they lost, lol… I am fascinated by the mind of
the gambler and have learned more from you than you did from me, just fascinating.
I see people post hate for teams, for managers, or players,
and it is simple to figure, that these morons don’t have the possibility to
stretch the length of their expectation and vision to a point beyond this day,
or even this game because they were not smart enough to learn that chasing a
fast buck never works for anyone. They
play for the big hit with a big percentage of their available cash not
realizing that even if they win that one, they will do it again and again until
they lose, re-fund their accounts, and repeat, over and over again, never
changing a thing but still expecting a different result.
I had one person (You know who you are, no offense brother,
but you make a perfect example) consistently asking, should I increase my
plays? Over and over, that is all he can
think of because, though he does not know it, he can see no farther than today’s
results. He is up and happy if he won,
and discouraged if he didn’t. He needs
not gamble, or not make decisions in gambling.
I honestly cannot remember a single game I got the slightest bit excited
over because of action I had on it. I
look at yesterday, the biggest game we were on was KC, winning through 8.5
innings by 2, Baltimore scored 10 in the bottom of the 8th with 2
grand slams and I was amazingly entertained, it was an impressive display of
MLB offense and I am glad I actually seen it.
Ok, I’ll close now.
This is all about stretching your time frame of deciding if you had
success, or failure from one day, to 7, and NOT worry in the least about a
single game, or day, and actually embracing losing days. Look back at my results, some of my biggest 5
days profits are immediately following a day the I went negative $650 or more,
I not only tolerate them, I embrace them.
0
I see people post hate for teams, for managers, or players,
and it is simple to figure, that these morons don’t have the possibility to
stretch the length of their expectation and vision to a point beyond this day,
or even this game because they were not smart enough to learn that chasing a
fast buck never works for anyone. They
play for the big hit with a big percentage of their available cash not
realizing that even if they win that one, they will do it again and again until
they lose, re-fund their accounts, and repeat, over and over again, never
changing a thing but still expecting a different result.
I had one person (You know who you are, no offense brother,
but you make a perfect example) consistently asking, should I increase my
plays? Over and over, that is all he can
think of because, though he does not know it, he can see no farther than today’s
results. He is up and happy if he won,
and discouraged if he didn’t. He needs
not gamble, or not make decisions in gambling.
I honestly cannot remember a single game I got the slightest bit excited
over because of action I had on it. I
look at yesterday, the biggest game we were on was KC, winning through 8.5
innings by 2, Baltimore scored 10 in the bottom of the 8th with 2
grand slams and I was amazingly entertained, it was an impressive display of
MLB offense and I am glad I actually seen it.
Ok, I’ll close now.
This is all about stretching your time frame of deciding if you had
success, or failure from one day, to 7, and NOT worry in the least about a
single game, or day, and actually embracing losing days. Look back at my results, some of my biggest 5
days profits are immediately following a day the I went negative $650 or more,
I not only tolerate them, I embrace them.
That is it, if you don’t ‘get it’ by now, you never
will. And you know if you ‘get it’ or
not by whether or not you are the slightest bit emotional (excited, sad, happy,
exuberant, angry) over any game you are on.
Me? I am a bit ‘over it’ at this point, I am
going to turn in the week I promised and I think I am going to be taking a sabbatical
from Covers in the near future, too many morons for me to tolerate to be honest. It’s just too
much like banging my head against a wall for literally no reason at all.
Honestly most of you lack the intellectual and emotional
capacity to ever, I repeat, EVER win in this game….
I am done
0
That is it, if you don’t ‘get it’ by now, you never
will. And you know if you ‘get it’ or
not by whether or not you are the slightest bit emotional (excited, sad, happy,
exuberant, angry) over any game you are on.
Me? I am a bit ‘over it’ at this point, I am
going to turn in the week I promised and I think I am going to be taking a sabbatical
from Covers in the near future, too many morons for me to tolerate to be honest. It’s just too
much like banging my head against a wall for literally no reason at all.
Honestly most of you lack the intellectual and emotional
capacity to ever, I repeat, EVER win in this game….
That is it, if you don’t ‘get it’ by now, you never
will. And you know if you ‘get it’ or
not by whether or not you are the slightest bit emotional (excited, sad, happy,
exuberant, angry) over any game you are on.
Me? I am a bit ‘over it’ at this point, I am
going to turn in the week I promised and I think I am going to be taking a sabbatical
from Covers in the near future, too many morons for me to tolerate to be honest. It’s just too
much like banging my head against a wall for literally no reason at all.
Honestly most of you lack the intellectual and emotional
capacity to ever, I repeat, EVER win in this game….
I am done
Bye?
0
Quote Originally Posted by jstaley12:
That is it, if you don’t ‘get it’ by now, you never
will. And you know if you ‘get it’ or
not by whether or not you are the slightest bit emotional (excited, sad, happy,
exuberant, angry) over any game you are on.
Me? I am a bit ‘over it’ at this point, I am
going to turn in the week I promised and I think I am going to be taking a sabbatical
from Covers in the near future, too many morons for me to tolerate to be honest. It’s just too
much like banging my head against a wall for literally no reason at all.
Honestly most of you lack the intellectual and emotional
capacity to ever, I repeat, EVER win in this game….
Idk what all the bitching is about. Im with u jstaley. And i fallowed all day and am looking like i will b breaking even for the week. (Since i was dumb and bet a bunch of my own stuff and lost. Lol) but i hope u dont stop posting because im on board and would love to fallow a WHOLE week and reep the benifits.
0
Idk what all the bitching is about. Im with u jstaley. And i fallowed all day and am looking like i will b breaking even for the week. (Since i was dumb and bet a bunch of my own stuff and lost. Lol) but i hope u dont stop posting because im on board and would love to fallow a WHOLE week and reep the benifits.
Can't blame the guy for leaving one bit. The dude breaks down his betting
strategy to the simplist terms, then follows through and delivers on a
consistent basis (so long as you follow his style)... addresses most questions thrown his way with thought
out, deliberate answers and still recieves garbage. Yes, he comes across as
arogant but who cares? He's earned the right to be that way.. Dude's a
winner with lots of knowledge. If you're following his betting style week to week and scaling
down his bets to an approximate scale relative to your bankroll, than you're way up, even with that bad week last week. I really don't get all the hate... at all.
0
Can't blame the guy for leaving one bit. The dude breaks down his betting
strategy to the simplist terms, then follows through and delivers on a
consistent basis (so long as you follow his style)... addresses most questions thrown his way with thought
out, deliberate answers and still recieves garbage. Yes, he comes across as
arogant but who cares? He's earned the right to be that way.. Dude's a
winner with lots of knowledge. If you're following his betting style week to week and scaling
down his bets to an approximate scale relative to your bankroll, than you're way up, even with that bad week last week. I really don't get all the hate... at all.
Can't blame the guy for leaving one bit. The dude breaks down his betting
strategy to the simplist terms, then follows through and delivers on a
consistent basis (so long as you follow his style)... addresses most questions thrown his way with thought
out, deliberate answers and still recieves garbage. Yes, he comes across as
arogant but who cares? He's earned the right to be that way.. Dude's a
winner with lots of knowledge. If you're following his betting style week to week and scaling
down his bets to an approximate scale relative to your bankroll, than you're way up, even with that bad week last week. I really don't get all the hate... at all.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Rio501:
Can't blame the guy for leaving one bit. The dude breaks down his betting
strategy to the simplist terms, then follows through and delivers on a
consistent basis (so long as you follow his style)... addresses most questions thrown his way with thought
out, deliberate answers and still recieves garbage. Yes, he comes across as
arogant but who cares? He's earned the right to be that way.. Dude's a
winner with lots of knowledge. If you're following his betting style week to week and scaling
down his bets to an approximate scale relative to your bankroll, than you're way up, even with that bad week last week. I really don't get all the hate... at all.
JT, my ol' sport, I just read it all, completely and you're right in all of the aspects.
Speaking for myself, I think it ain't fair that for one or two moron, the rest of us (who is gambling and over all, having fun with this sport) will be affected in a negative way, I mean: not being able to bet your picks. But I undestand you and you're in your right to retire for the time you consider.
I've been tailing you just for a few weeks but I'm conscious some days there are wins and others, losses. It's perfectly normal in this world I'm just starting to know about, and I like it.
Thank you for your knowledge and your picks, my friend.
BOL to you and to all of those persons who enjoy this activity, which, by the way, you do it for free to all of us who want to tail you, pal.
God bless you.
P.D.: I'm not american, so please sorry if there were any mistake in the grammar of my words.
Again, BOL to everyone
0
JT, my ol' sport, I just read it all, completely and you're right in all of the aspects.
Speaking for myself, I think it ain't fair that for one or two moron, the rest of us (who is gambling and over all, having fun with this sport) will be affected in a negative way, I mean: not being able to bet your picks. But I undestand you and you're in your right to retire for the time you consider.
I've been tailing you just for a few weeks but I'm conscious some days there are wins and others, losses. It's perfectly normal in this world I'm just starting to know about, and I like it.
Thank you for your knowledge and your picks, my friend.
BOL to you and to all of those persons who enjoy this activity, which, by the way, you do it for free to all of us who want to tail you, pal.
God bless you.
P.D.: I'm not american, so please sorry if there were any mistake in the grammar of my words.
Ok, first post so take it for what it's worth. sorry it's a bit long. the gist is, the work is appreciated, don't let the trolls win, stay the course
I've been lurking these threads for a while now, so I'm familiar with the goings on.
First, thanks for doing the leg work, posting plays and engaging in conversation and trying to help educate people. It's interesting to read.
I get what you're saying about banging your head against a wall. You gotta be exhausted doing what you do, grinding it out. Then sharing it here only to get flamed, called a liar and degen. Having people counting on your plays like it's buying diapers and formula for sweet baby Jesus. Having others just pop in to ridicule you on minutiae and typos. It's lame and I don't know why you do it. However, it can't be new or unexpected on internet forums, it just comes with the territory.
With all your guarantees this week I'm really interested in seeing how
it plays out, mostly for my own education going forward while making
some money with you along the way. Been trying to follow this week to
scale as best I can. Missed some plays due to timing and work or just
not really understanding the value. Missed some wins, missed some
losses. (Missed Seattle play tonight, bummed on that, had to close up
at work and just missed the play with no live betting on it at my
book). Mostly looking good and consistent much like you did last week
even with the losses and rise in scale.
In the past I've been that emotional gambler you're talking about. My
mood following the wins and losses, not even day by day, but play by
play.
Slowly I started learning you gotta play the long game if
you want to win. Crazy plays, stupid mistakes and other uncontrollable
factors are going to get in the way of your plays every day but staying
the course knowing your expected value is how you win. It was an
expensive lesson, and I learned it the hard way (still learning).
I
agree with the
poster earlier who said "cap your own games." If I had more time I
certainly would. However, if others have more time, knowledge,
statistics, are doing the work and you can track their plays and results
to know if they are legit or not, I think following with calculated
risk is fine and a lot of fun/profitable.
I get that not all
plays are going to hit and you need to take it all with a grain of salt
confident that you're making the plays for the right reasons. With you specifically I don't
fully comprehend making plays you think will probably lose now for more
profit later, but that could just be me not having all the info. (why
not just skip those plays and cash the bigger plays later? are they positive
EV in the long run?)
The haters and trolls and people jumping on and off are not seeing the bigger picture or they get off on being the first to call out somebody crashing and burning. (not that that is happening they just want to call it before it does) Some might really think you are going against what you've preached in the past. Some concern is legit and others are emotional wrecks with the rest just hungry trolls looking for the next meal. I don't know why people don't just stay out of threads or keep their mouth shut without anything constructive to say but it's just the reality of this time and place
Anyway, not really looking for a lesson or explanation and not trying to hijack the thread or get in the middle or talk you out of anything. Just wanted to chime in and say some of us are listening, some of us get it and appreciate it.
But, I do think if you leave or take a break or whatever, then you're being just as susceptible to the emotional highs and lows only instead of the plays you make you're letting other people's reactions to your plays get to you. That's something you definitely can't control.
In the end, if you leave, very few will remember and fewer will care. You'll be just another meal for the trolls.
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Ok, first post so take it for what it's worth. sorry it's a bit long. the gist is, the work is appreciated, don't let the trolls win, stay the course
I've been lurking these threads for a while now, so I'm familiar with the goings on.
First, thanks for doing the leg work, posting plays and engaging in conversation and trying to help educate people. It's interesting to read.
I get what you're saying about banging your head against a wall. You gotta be exhausted doing what you do, grinding it out. Then sharing it here only to get flamed, called a liar and degen. Having people counting on your plays like it's buying diapers and formula for sweet baby Jesus. Having others just pop in to ridicule you on minutiae and typos. It's lame and I don't know why you do it. However, it can't be new or unexpected on internet forums, it just comes with the territory.
With all your guarantees this week I'm really interested in seeing how
it plays out, mostly for my own education going forward while making
some money with you along the way. Been trying to follow this week to
scale as best I can. Missed some plays due to timing and work or just
not really understanding the value. Missed some wins, missed some
losses. (Missed Seattle play tonight, bummed on that, had to close up
at work and just missed the play with no live betting on it at my
book). Mostly looking good and consistent much like you did last week
even with the losses and rise in scale.
In the past I've been that emotional gambler you're talking about. My
mood following the wins and losses, not even day by day, but play by
play.
Slowly I started learning you gotta play the long game if
you want to win. Crazy plays, stupid mistakes and other uncontrollable
factors are going to get in the way of your plays every day but staying
the course knowing your expected value is how you win. It was an
expensive lesson, and I learned it the hard way (still learning).
I
agree with the
poster earlier who said "cap your own games." If I had more time I
certainly would. However, if others have more time, knowledge,
statistics, are doing the work and you can track their plays and results
to know if they are legit or not, I think following with calculated
risk is fine and a lot of fun/profitable.
I get that not all
plays are going to hit and you need to take it all with a grain of salt
confident that you're making the plays for the right reasons. With you specifically I don't
fully comprehend making plays you think will probably lose now for more
profit later, but that could just be me not having all the info. (why
not just skip those plays and cash the bigger plays later? are they positive
EV in the long run?)
The haters and trolls and people jumping on and off are not seeing the bigger picture or they get off on being the first to call out somebody crashing and burning. (not that that is happening they just want to call it before it does) Some might really think you are going against what you've preached in the past. Some concern is legit and others are emotional wrecks with the rest just hungry trolls looking for the next meal. I don't know why people don't just stay out of threads or keep their mouth shut without anything constructive to say but it's just the reality of this time and place
Anyway, not really looking for a lesson or explanation and not trying to hijack the thread or get in the middle or talk you out of anything. Just wanted to chime in and say some of us are listening, some of us get it and appreciate it.
But, I do think if you leave or take a break or whatever, then you're being just as susceptible to the emotional highs and lows only instead of the plays you make you're letting other people's reactions to your plays get to you. That's something you definitely can't control.
In the end, if you leave, very few will remember and fewer will care. You'll be just another meal for the trolls.
So I have no problem letting the Forum know that I am that person. However, you are a little off in your explanation of what I am doing, and It's NOT looking at everything on a daily basis. However, yes, I do enjoy winning daily and get excited and emotional when I do. I have seen you do the same with your little dancing figures when you recap your daily winners. I buy into your "As long as we end up positive at the end of the week" strategy, and have said is much numerous times in your Threads here.
I had one person (You know who you are, no offense brother, but you make a perfect example) consistently asking, should I increase my plays? Over and over, that is all he can think of because, though he does not know it, he can see no farther than today’s results. He is up and happy if he won, and discouraged if he didn’t. He needs not gamble, or not make decisions in gambling
I am not "consistently asking, should I increase my Plays". I am simply using your analogy that when Capping 3 games out with an 80% win probability of one game. Why wouldn't I ask if it was wise to increase the amount Played on the 3rd game, if the team in question has lost the first two, if you calculate an 80% win probability of one game, as described below- as you yourself said?
leaving virtually nothing to chance so you can go big on those game knowing that you know every aspect of those few games, and can expect to win 80+% of those late games.
I know you Capping ability is much better than most on here, or perhaps I shouldn't speak for anyone but myself. I have started tailing you and trying to learn something, whoever I have seen your overall attitude towards us that are not at your level change recently. You started out here being very friendly, helpful and understanding to those of us not at your level of expertise, however it seems you've become a little more condescending recently, and not near as humble as you originally came across. I understand your frustration with the "Trolls", but you have to realize that many of us are on your side, and have consistently had your back, even through your bad days.
I REALLY DO APPRECIATE ALL YOU'VE DONE TO HELP ME, but I just feel that I had to point out the way I'm feeling, especially since you singled me out tonight. ( I know, not by name. But I'm not embarrassed to admit it was me you were referring to).
Believe me, I have nothing but respect for you and what you've done. I'm just a little disappointed to see the humble attitude you started with turn more to one of "better than everyone else", which you are, but we all see it with out you having to point it out and challenge other good humble Cappers on this site.
Just my humble opinion. Take it for what it's worth my friend!!
0
So I have no problem letting the Forum know that I am that person. However, you are a little off in your explanation of what I am doing, and It's NOT looking at everything on a daily basis. However, yes, I do enjoy winning daily and get excited and emotional when I do. I have seen you do the same with your little dancing figures when you recap your daily winners. I buy into your "As long as we end up positive at the end of the week" strategy, and have said is much numerous times in your Threads here.
I had one person (You know who you are, no offense brother, but you make a perfect example) consistently asking, should I increase my plays? Over and over, that is all he can think of because, though he does not know it, he can see no farther than today’s results. He is up and happy if he won, and discouraged if he didn’t. He needs not gamble, or not make decisions in gambling
I am not "consistently asking, should I increase my Plays". I am simply using your analogy that when Capping 3 games out with an 80% win probability of one game. Why wouldn't I ask if it was wise to increase the amount Played on the 3rd game, if the team in question has lost the first two, if you calculate an 80% win probability of one game, as described below- as you yourself said?
leaving virtually nothing to chance so you can go big on those game knowing that you know every aspect of those few games, and can expect to win 80+% of those late games.
I know you Capping ability is much better than most on here, or perhaps I shouldn't speak for anyone but myself. I have started tailing you and trying to learn something, whoever I have seen your overall attitude towards us that are not at your level change recently. You started out here being very friendly, helpful and understanding to those of us not at your level of expertise, however it seems you've become a little more condescending recently, and not near as humble as you originally came across. I understand your frustration with the "Trolls", but you have to realize that many of us are on your side, and have consistently had your back, even through your bad days.
I REALLY DO APPRECIATE ALL YOU'VE DONE TO HELP ME, but I just feel that I had to point out the way I'm feeling, especially since you singled me out tonight. ( I know, not by name. But I'm not embarrassed to admit it was me you were referring to).
Believe me, I have nothing but respect for you and what you've done. I'm just a little disappointed to see the humble attitude you started with turn more to one of "better than everyone else", which you are, but we all see it with out you having to point it out and challenge other good humble Cappers on this site.
Just my humble opinion. Take it for what it's worth my friend!!
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