I think Illinois is prime fade material, at least for the 1st half of the season, until the books catch up and start putting out ridiculous spreads...by mid Oct...
I think Illinois is prime fade material, at least for the 1st half of the season, until the books catch up and start putting out ridiculous spreads...by mid Oct...
thanks for the future picks..
here are the lines I have right now:
thanks for the future picks..
here are the lines I have right now:
Just curious, what is BOL's max wager on that total??? What is the vig???
Just curious, what is BOL's max wager on that total??? What is the vig???
hammer and jdn - thanks for the perspectives. I will still call the 56-3, but I probably will not bet this game. I do believe that the final outcome of this game will be demonstrative of the season that texas will have. if texas wins 63 to 0 and holds nmm st under 100 yards of Offense, then look out...12-0 and a date with bama could be in the cards. if we play like we did against Wyoming last year, then 8-5 or 9-3 with a loss to OU will be in the cards...
right now, my top three
Alabama -18 (not locked in, has not opened on Heritage or Bookmaker, but I hope it will be that, will take them up to 21 for the game)
Oklahoma State -13 - I think Miss St will somewhat exceed expectations for the whole season and may be a bowl team, but this is a bad matchup for Miss St,. Plus, Gundy, the nut that he is, will want to make a statement in the Big XII v SEC grudge and since this game is on a neutral "fast" field Reliant in Houston, a returning QB (say what you want about his lack of NFL potential, he is a winner) 6 2 deep starters, strong LB to counter Miss St running game, plug and play at RB, and improved secondary, going against a Miss St O that lost Bumpus and 3 other receiver leaders along with two 1-2 day NFL draft picks in the secondary. I just don't think Miss St has the horses or the system to keep up.
Those two I feel good about in week 1 based on current spreads. Other games I like...
Florida State -10.5 over Pitt - I don't think this is a slam dunk. but, FSU D should be punped, with Pitt losses at the skill positions. I think the Pitt D is a bit overrated considering the O's they went against last year. Winston in his first game will be expected to be a game manager, hand it off to the fast FSU RB's and play a methodical O and shut down D.
Auburn -13 over Washington St. - High Risk with a new coach and all the problems AU had last year. But, AU has so much talent on that roster v. WSU which does not have much. I know Cam came in as a JC transfer and took AU to the NC, but I think he was a once in a generation player. This guy coming in will do a good job, but I am not completely sold on AU in week 1.
Maryland -14 over FIU - Edsall is on the hot seat, but also conservative. The terps lost playmakers on D and though they had lost a number of QB's, the O was bad, with Diggs the only O. As historically bad as FIU may be in Turner's first year, I am not sold yet. This could be a blowout for Maryland. The talent differential is huge. If the Terp QB looks good and the camp practices sound good, I could pull the trigger on the Terps.
UCLA -14 over Nevada - on paper a mismatch, UCLA should be motivated after the asskicking from Baylor in the bowl. They won't be able to replace Franklin's production at least not in week 1 with a rb by committee approach. hundley is legit, and I think they have a good LB coming back, but had some losses on D.
Fresno State -8 over Rutgers - on pure P Steele PS Talent, Rutgers has much more than Fresno. But, you can't cap just on that. FSU looked good, playing at home. I am on the fence here. Even though Rutgers lost a lot of D starters, I have to believe the new guys got some playing experience. Plus, FSU got blown out in the bowl by an average SMU team. Finally, FSU loses Rouse, who accouted for over 2K yards last year. Will FSU be able to replace such a consistent force in week 1? I have my doubts. I think FSU pulls this game out, but it could closer than the experts think...as Corso often says...
GL Gentlemen! If you have a minute, I would appreciate your takes on the games I have rationalized above. Hook em!
hammer and jdn - thanks for the perspectives. I will still call the 56-3, but I probably will not bet this game. I do believe that the final outcome of this game will be demonstrative of the season that texas will have. if texas wins 63 to 0 and holds nmm st under 100 yards of Offense, then look out...12-0 and a date with bama could be in the cards. if we play like we did against Wyoming last year, then 8-5 or 9-3 with a loss to OU will be in the cards...
right now, my top three
Alabama -18 (not locked in, has not opened on Heritage or Bookmaker, but I hope it will be that, will take them up to 21 for the game)
Oklahoma State -13 - I think Miss St will somewhat exceed expectations for the whole season and may be a bowl team, but this is a bad matchup for Miss St,. Plus, Gundy, the nut that he is, will want to make a statement in the Big XII v SEC grudge and since this game is on a neutral "fast" field Reliant in Houston, a returning QB (say what you want about his lack of NFL potential, he is a winner) 6 2 deep starters, strong LB to counter Miss St running game, plug and play at RB, and improved secondary, going against a Miss St O that lost Bumpus and 3 other receiver leaders along with two 1-2 day NFL draft picks in the secondary. I just don't think Miss St has the horses or the system to keep up.
Those two I feel good about in week 1 based on current spreads. Other games I like...
Florida State -10.5 over Pitt - I don't think this is a slam dunk. but, FSU D should be punped, with Pitt losses at the skill positions. I think the Pitt D is a bit overrated considering the O's they went against last year. Winston in his first game will be expected to be a game manager, hand it off to the fast FSU RB's and play a methodical O and shut down D.
Auburn -13 over Washington St. - High Risk with a new coach and all the problems AU had last year. But, AU has so much talent on that roster v. WSU which does not have much. I know Cam came in as a JC transfer and took AU to the NC, but I think he was a once in a generation player. This guy coming in will do a good job, but I am not completely sold on AU in week 1.
Maryland -14 over FIU - Edsall is on the hot seat, but also conservative. The terps lost playmakers on D and though they had lost a number of QB's, the O was bad, with Diggs the only O. As historically bad as FIU may be in Turner's first year, I am not sold yet. This could be a blowout for Maryland. The talent differential is huge. If the Terp QB looks good and the camp practices sound good, I could pull the trigger on the Terps.
UCLA -14 over Nevada - on paper a mismatch, UCLA should be motivated after the asskicking from Baylor in the bowl. They won't be able to replace Franklin's production at least not in week 1 with a rb by committee approach. hundley is legit, and I think they have a good LB coming back, but had some losses on D.
Fresno State -8 over Rutgers - on pure P Steele PS Talent, Rutgers has much more than Fresno. But, you can't cap just on that. FSU looked good, playing at home. I am on the fence here. Even though Rutgers lost a lot of D starters, I have to believe the new guys got some playing experience. Plus, FSU got blown out in the bowl by an average SMU team. Finally, FSU loses Rouse, who accouted for over 2K yards last year. Will FSU be able to replace such a consistent force in week 1? I have my doubts. I think FSU pulls this game out, but it could closer than the experts think...as Corso often says...
GL Gentlemen! If you have a minute, I would appreciate your takes on the games I have rationalized above. Hook em!
Right on hammer...I think I will make a rule and not bet on my Longhorns so I can really enjoy an asskicking and hope that they can win them all instead of being pissed that they allow a meaningless backdoor cover because they lack the "killer instinct" to kick a bad team's behind and cover and make me money. Probably a good rule of thumb. GL to your Sooners with the exception of the 2nd Sat in October. I think by midseason, they could be a ATS force if they get those guys in the secondary , the DL comes together and if Bell can effectively pass the ball.
Right on hammer...I think I will make a rule and not bet on my Longhorns so I can really enjoy an asskicking and hope that they can win them all instead of being pissed that they allow a meaningless backdoor cover because they lack the "killer instinct" to kick a bad team's behind and cover and make me money. Probably a good rule of thumb. GL to your Sooners with the exception of the 2nd Sat in October. I think by midseason, they could be a ATS force if they get those guys in the secondary , the DL comes together and if Bell can effectively pass the ball.
$500 is respectable. -110 is good too.
$500 is respectable. -110 is good too.
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