Porcelainfists preseason degenerate thread

Question

I decided to get down because i see an edge. I am eyeing a cool 55% and hopefully that starts tonight.

The Vikes are a good team, but they will be aided even moreso by no Roethlisberger, Bell, Brown. This game starts as Bridgewater v. Gradkowski.

I believe the over would be the play of the totals, but i am getting down $20 to win $18 on the Vikings -3. I love a lot of their defensive depth, Scott Crichton from Oregon St was a beast in college, i also love some players on their backend like Antone Exum from Virginia Tech and Anthony Harris from Virginia. I studied these guys coming out and third string Landry Jones is going to have a heck of a time scoring on them.

Good luck to all but my play is Vikes -3. Laying the points.

porcelainfist · Answer

I decided to get down because i see an edge. I am eyeing a cool 55% and hopefully that starts tonight.

The Vikes are a good team, but they will be aided even moreso by no Roethlisberger, Bell, Brown. This game starts as Bridgewater v. Gradkowski.

I believe the over would be the play of the totals, but i am getting down $20 to win $18 on the Vikings -3. I love a lot of their defensive depth, Scott Crichton from Oregon St was a beast in college, i also love some players on their backend like Antone Exum from Virginia Tech and Anthony Harris from Virginia. I studied these guys coming out and third string Landry Jones is going to have a heck of a time scoring on them.

Good luck to all but my play is Vikes -3. Laying the points.

stat13 · Answer

FYI - Gradkowski is injured and will not play.  Landry Jones will see majority of snaps for Pit.  Which is obviously even better news for your play if you like Vikes.

porcelainfist · Answer

Nooooiiice. My Steelers guy says Landry is gahbage! Seriously, Jones v Bridgewater and this line is only 3?

suuma · Answer

Would like to hear some of your observations after the game. BOL on the pick!

porcelainfist · Answer

Also, Suuma, I hope you&#x27;ve been able to keep up with the team Scrimmages so far. The Browns&#x27; and Jets&#x27; first team offenses are looking better than usual, which is not a great sign for my Under and am using this week&#x27;s preseason games for a real test. You can also go to DallasCowboys.com right now to watch their Blue/White scrimmage.

porcelainfist · Answer

Yep Yep Yep...Cashed out, Min -3 $20 for $181-0-0 PreseasonSo, Suuma, for what it&#x27;s worth what I saw was Trae Waynes getting beat non stop, super grabby. Bad technique. I simply do not see the #12 pick there.Good thing I saw Eric Kendricks just looking as good as advertised, good enough to be the starting Mike this year. The second that they put Danielle Hunter in the Vikings started getting their pass rush going, even though the crew was hyping Villanueva, Hunter was beating him regularly and was working well against the run. This kid was supposed to be so unpolished that&#x27;s why he fell to the third, well, lo and behold he is looking like the real deal. Every team missed on him at least twice. I really like the Vikings this year, Bridgewater looked incredible, but mostly I am worried about two things... Waynes... are they going to play him at RCB opening day? If so, even Kaepernick will put up points on him. The other thing.... WILL THEY PLAY KENDRICKS AND HUNTER? they look beastly. For now, I&#x27;m very happy with my return and will be looking forward to trying to keep 55% plays in the Preseason, warts and all.

suuma · Answer

Thanks. I am going to watch the game after work. I don&#x27;t stay awake for pre-season games. Watched two drives and Dre Archer showed some good quickness. Matt Kalil looked solid but he only played ten snaps.

porcelainfist · Answer

Khalil did look good. Archer is pretty dangerous, is going to be a difference maker in week 1 without Leveon Bell.

Moving forward, I like a couple more plays, namely the Chargers -3 and Under 38.

Watching Cowboys practice two things were very clear: 1. their defense is much improved, and 2. they are very top heavy at the QB position.

I think the Cowboys are a 2 win team without Romo right now. Their best shot at winning would be rookie Jameill Showers, and that's not a great omen.

Brandon Weeden stares down every receiver. He is a baseball player through and through. He doesn't understand the game or the route concepts.

Dustin Vaughan has zero mobility, concrete shoes, stares down his receivers, has very little accuracy.

I also like the Jets +3. The Jets are pretty deep at QB, and Bowles is a defensive minded coach that preaches discipline. For this to be a real play I am going to be researching the Lions more this week, so stay tuned.

PRman_Hawaii · Answer

Charger and under is a strong lean

porcelainfist · Answer

Once Bovada releases their lines im set for thursday action with Jets/Lions u36 because Orlovsky is a dumpster fire and Geno is obviously not playing which bumps Bryce Petty up to second string. Contrary to what some say here, even some guys whom i respect, Petty is a ling project. Without the Baylor system he is going to look very pedestrian. He win't be Orlovsky bad, but he'll be close. I like the Lions' secondary depth as well and will be watching my boy Alex Carter from Stanford closely.

Under $20 to win $18

Next im going to take the play i posted here before anyone else SD -3.5 and under 38.

$20 to win $18 SD
$20 to win $18 under 38.

Still working on Friday's plays, but my first is Cincinnati -3. Bol guys.

Skware · Answer

SD &amp; UN

porcelainfist · Answer

2-0 so far this preseason, &#x2B;$36 this preseason with the Under by the Jets/Lions. Now I need the Charger -4 and Under 37

suuma · Answer

Keep them coming, Fist.

Can you post a few notes on the Chargers game? I am on a vacation and I've got limited access.

Jameer Abdullah looked good, Jets didn't really. How did Jimmy Garoppolo do?

porcelainfist · Answer

Ameer Abdullah! I loved him coming out of Nebraska, reminded me of Emmitt Smith size wise, but watching him he was much quicker. Really a wiggly guy who runs with a lot of power. Garoppolo did just as poorly as I anticipated, but it's largely due to Quinten Rollins looking really really good. Better than expected imo.

The Chargers game: the Cowboys' defense this year is going to be for real. Seriously, the pass rush is crazy and the manic pace the defense is setting is making it tough on the Chargers. Their only score was set up off of a failed snap by Brandon Weeden.

Gus Johnson is going to make the Cowboys' team, bank it. The guy runs like an NFL starter, the Cowboys really lucked out on him... Just cliff notes, I'll expound later. Enjoy vacay!

porcelainfist · Answer

4-0 baby. Nice. San Diego -4 , U37 .In a moment of weakness I actually parlayed these two picks and made them one play, $40 to win $77... However, in sticking with the spirit of this thread, I will only count the cash I published...Vikings -3.5 win $20 to win $18Jets/Lions U 35 $20 to win $18SD - 4 $20 to win $18SD/Dal U37 $20 to win $18Total &#x2B; $72Record 4-0Tomorrows plays posted in an hour.

porcelainfist · Answer

*should read that I parlayed $30 to win $77, I forgot the amount.

porcelainfist · Answer

The first play I can actually endorse is the Bengals are going to get all over the Giants, and it’s not even funny.

The Giants have a ton of issues on the offensive line, and the Bengals are stacked to the bottom of the defensive depth chart.

The Giants missed too many times in the 2010-2011 drafts and have ended up with a team that is very thin at most positions.

They are forced to start Landon Collins who has been struggling in camp, and I doubt that he will come out at all because they are so thin at safety. Besides that, they are playing Collins as a FS when he is a “in the box” SS.

They are going to get burnt all day by one of the brightest backup QBs in the game, AJ McCarron. And when McCarron isn’t playing, Josh Johnson is no slouch, and I really liked Keith Wenning coming out of Ball State last year.

Did I mention they go two deep at elite level talent at the LT position?

Their defense in the second half is going to be a coming out party for the best pure Will Linebacker I’ve seen in years, Paul Dawson out of TCU who is going to be a STAR in the NFL, whether he was a combine star or not.

At corner, even in the twilight of the game, they will be playing a guy at Corner in Josh Shaw from USC that I believe is going to play incredibly well against 3rd stringers.

Their third string pass rush will feature Will Clarke from WVU who was really thought of highly in the 2014 draft, but just needed a little bit of seasoning to learn some NFL moves, moves that he likely has already learned…

I couldn’t possibly be confident on a total here, but I do not believe that the Giants stand a chance, so I’ll be playing Cincinnati -3.

Cincinnati -3 $20 to win $18

porcelainfist · Answer

Second play and only plays of the night are the St Louis Rams to beat up on the Oakland Raiders.

Sean Mannion is the reason, and I will stand by that vehemently. Mannion has the best touch of any QB out of the 2015 draft class and only got a bad rap this year because he was a part of a decaying Oregon Beavers squad that was garbage on the offensive line and missing Brandin Cooks.

Mannion knows how to sit his receivers down against zone and also how to lead with a lob against tight man to give his man a chance to make a grab. Almost always, this throw is within the acceptable leverage for a high completion percentage.

While Mannion is my main reason for the play, and it seems silly, as he is the FOURTH string Quarterback, but I also have great faith in Austin Davis, and Case Keenum. I basically think that the Rams have assembled four very likable Quarterbacks, but I also believe that Mannion is the belle of the bunch, and he will be facing fourth string talent in the fourth quarter.

I hope that he won't have to lead a comeback, but if any 4th stringer can, it will be Mannion. My rating of him was so insanely high (most had him in the fifth) that I contested I would take him in a heartbeat higher than Jameis Winston. However, of course, I wouldn't be a fool, I realize I like him way more than the average evaluator, I would wait until the third and I would dance the dance of the "steal".

Well, there he went in the third.

Gurley won't start, but Tre Mason will, and sticking with my theme of unsung zeroes who become preseason difference makers, Malcom Brown the RB from Texas will be the RB that Mannion is handing the ball to.

I also like that the Rams are probably going to keep their young interior line in as long as they can to try to get them the experience they will need into the season.

I like the Raiders, I do, and I could say a lot about them... but the biggest thing you have to notice is that they are VERY thin at DB. I like who they have at the top, but not in a WOW kind of way... The Top three are good, but at the bottom of their secondary roster the only player that even gets a somewhat flattering eval from me is Chimdi Chekwa.

Raiders Defensive End Mario Williams Jr will be a player that will be infinitely worth watching. Does he look fat? if so he is going to have a bad year. Weight and work ethic have always been his ONLY factors as far as negating his elite talent.

In the end, I have more positive things to say about the Rams than the Raiders, and in this likely exciting, high scoring game I would take the Rams -1 $20 to win $18.

GotPhoTai · Answer

Very nice, thanks for all of the info.

Bidasaint · Answer

Great stuff so far, keep up that

HatOnBed · Answer

Keep dropping knowledge.

Sportsnut1123 · Answer

Great write-up fist. You have been on fire and I hope you keep it going tonight. I liked the Bengals from the start and you just confirmed my thoughts. I hadn&#x27;t looked at the Rams much but after your insight I will ride them with you. GL tonight.

Vinhny · Answer

Cincin thanks....one more to go

porcelainfist · Answer

I believe in Sean Mannion, but McGloin really cramping my style... not to mention missed FGs..The dream is over! The perfect season is in jeopardy

porcelainfist · Answer

Just a very bad cap there, I have always felt like Jeff Fisher isn't hungry enough, and wow, this team should have won. Haven't even seen Mannion yet with 9 minutes left in the game, which is very disappointing. The Rams' WR corps and OL are very very weak, and I'm going to have to man up and take this one on the chin. I'm not a great, graceful loser, so I don't know what I'm going to play tomorrow yet, I'm going to take some time and regroup try to make sure my head is right before I jump back in the saddle.

Tonight: 1-1

Cincinnati -3 WIN $20 to win $18

St Louis - 1 LOSS $20 to lose $18

Preseason: 5-1 + $72

Porcelainfists preseason degenerate thread

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