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Posted: #601
Quote Originally Posted by Chi-TownCovers:

I read that suggestion but I'm not sure of that is the right way of doing things because one would assume that chase starts from A, not game D. Also if I have to accept it then so be it- just wondering if he'd help me out with that information.

My personal suggestion is to continue doing what you are doing with the 1.5 units and just cut your loss on that chase.  You will have plenty of plays coming up to more than make up for it.
 
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Posted: #602
I'm not trying to clog up his thread with this, it sucks but isn't the end of the world. If possible the information on knowing when to continue the chase would be great. And by no means did I NOT understand it, they just weren't a dog on my book. To eliminate any further confusion to all that follow I would wait until he posts his plays and play them exactly.
 
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Posted: #603
Quote Originally Posted by Chi-TownCovers:

I'm not trying to clog up his thread with this, it sucks but isn't the end of the world. If possible the information on knowing when to continue the chase would be great. And by no means did I NOT understand it, they just weren't a dog on my book. To eliminate any further confusion to all that follow I would wait until he posts his plays and play them exactly.

As far as going forward I would say since ALL plays are taken from 5 dimes lines if you dont have 5dimes and can't get that play from your book to not play it. Now to get your money recovered maybe add .5 unit to eac play? If you play the next MIA play it would still be a 6 game chase.
 
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Posted: #604

Jeff The Hat,

Can you send me a friend request please.

                                                                    Thanks

 
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Posted: #605
SD ended up around a -125 favorite in just about every book out there. What book do you use Chi-town?
 
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Posted: #606

Quote Originally Posted by bruin95:

SD ended up around a -125 favorite in just about every book out there. What book do you use Chi-town?

The book I use is local and the lines are usually the same as 5dimes or just slightly different.  The play we are discussing was extremely close and the best I saw was even $ and that was after I already wagered the ML.  I will continue to just add .5 units to each play unless Jeff wants to share what the D game "would have been" in the event the RL on game (C) lost also. 

Since Jeff stated the next Miami play would be a 6 game chase I am not going to start that game (A) at game (D) chase amount.  Way to much risk upfront. That is why I was wondering what WOULD"VE been game (D) and even (E) or (F) if necessary had the last game (C) RL play lost. This way I could continue my chase and try to recover the loss.  Jeff if you want to share that information with me great, if not I understand.

Go Brewers!

Thanks - CHI

 
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Posted: #607
Quote Originally Posted by Metsbaseball:

Jeff The Hat,

Can you send me a friend request please.

                                                                    Thanks


Sent 
 
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Posted: #608
BREW  crew get some tonite!
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #609
Quote Originally Posted by Chi-TownCovers:

The book I use is local and the lines are usually the same as 5dimes or just slightly different.  The play we are discussing was extremely close and the best I saw was even $ and that was after I already wagered the ML.  I will continue to just add .5 units to each play unless Jeff wants to share what the D game "would have been" in the event the RL on game (C) lost also. 

Since Jeff stated the next Miami play would be a 6 game chase I am not going to start that game (A) at game (D) chase amount.  Way to much risk upfront. That is why I was wondering what WOULD"VE been game (D) and even (E) or (F) if necessary had the last game (C) RL play lost. This way I could continue my chase and try to recover the loss.  Jeff if you want to share that information with me great, if not I understand.

Go Brewers!

Thanks - CHI


Not trying to beat a dead horse here, but your local wasn't using 5dimes lines for that game.  5dimes closed that game at SD -128.  SD was favored all day long.  3 hours before game time they were -120.  Like I said, pretty much every book out there had SD as the clear favorites.  Your guy was using stale lines, and it bit you in the butt.  I hope you can get it back quickly with a bunch of A game winners.  Good luck.
 
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Posted: #610
Congrats on SD...NICE WIN
 
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Posted: #611
Quote Originally Posted by Chi-TownCovers:

The book I use is local and the lines are usually the same as 5dimes or just slightly different.  The play we are discussing was extremely close and the best I saw was even $ and that was after I already wagered the ML.  I will continue to just add .5 units to each play unless Jeff wants to share what the D game "would have been" in the event the RL on game (C) lost also. 

Since Jeff stated the next Miami play would be a 6 game chase I am not going to start that game (A) at game (D) chase amount.  Way to much risk upfront. That is why I was wondering what WOULD"VE been game (D) and even (E) or (F) if necessary had the last game (C) RL play lost. This way I could continue my chase and try to recover the loss.  Jeff if you want to share that information with me great, if not I understand.

Go Brewers!

Thanks - CHI


CHI, systems are usually designed to win once per series. MIA won. Series is over. No point in finding out what Game 4, 5 or 6 would be as it does not guarantee a win. Don't go looking for another win in those games. 

My advise is to assume a partial loss and move on. You will miss plays completely, pick the wrong spread or even pick the wrong team. This happens to everybody. 

 
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Posted: #612
i had miami at even $  so i was a "smart guy" trying to beat he juice on r.l.  -    $ ......   
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #613
Would appreciate a friend request.  BOL
 
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Posted: #614
good win!!   send me a friend request too Hat
 
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Posted: #615
bingo...
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #616
here hat, i dug this up..

Total for the system 3689-0 this is a 6 game chase. This an average of 738 units a season!

2013 - 765-0       2012 - 757-0      2011 - 692-0     2010 - 758-0    

A) 461                A) 442                A) 431               A) 432
B) 187                B) 197                B) 169               B) 196
C) 85                  C) 64                 C) 64                 C) 82
D) 23                  D) 39                 D) 19                 D) 33
E) 8                    E) 12                  E) 7                  E) 8
F) 1                    F) 3                    F) 2                   F) 7

2009 - 717-0
A) 435
B) 159
C) 73
D) 39
E) 9 
F) 2

This in an average of 84.3% hit on A&B games combined
A) 59.7%
B) 24.6%
C) 10%
D) 4.1%
E) 1.1%
F) .4 %

Now if I'm not mistaken at a -150 average a 4 game loss is 30.20 units so if you wanted to make this a 4 game chase you would still make 381 units a season on average. Remember this chase only plays 5/6th's of the season to.

That's 76 units a month that way not bad. 
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #617
Poo, if you read over Jeff's thread in the systems section, I did a breakdown of possible chase scanerios. 4 game (A to D) followed by a 2 game (E & F) chase is one of the most profitable ones.
 
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Posted: #618
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

Poo, if you read over Jeff's thread in the systems section, I did a breakdown of possible chase scanerios. 4 game (A to D) followed by a 2 game (E & F) chase is one of the most profitable ones.

sounds interesting, please elaborate on a scenario if u get time. thank you bart.
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #619
Play a martingale chase for the first 4 games. If it loses, start a new 2 game chase for the last 2 games.
 
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Posted: #620
Jeff what's going on bud see u still going strong love the systems a lot money made... keep up great work I was wandering do u have any systems for football also
 
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Posted: #621
Yesterday hit with MIL (A)

Season record 12-0

A) 6
B) 0
C) 6

No plays til Thursday
 
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Posted: #622
hey hat, i know last year you showed 1st month record had like 100+ units won. Is it looking to be about the same this year? Just asking because if it is.....im thinking there's about to be 8-10 chases going a day for a week 
 
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Posted: #623
Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

Yesterday hit with MIL (A)

Season record 12-0

A) 6
B) 0
C) 6

No plays til Thursday


At this rate you have to average 5.6 wins per day to hit 700 wins on the season....without sharing the chase parameters I believe you have inflated your numbers times 10
 
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Posted: #624
Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:



At this rate you have to average 5.6 wins per day to hit 700 wins on the season....without sharing the chase parameters I believe you have inflated your numbers times 10

 Nope not at all.
 
 
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Posted: #625
Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

Yesterday hit with MIL (A)

Season record 12-0

A) 6
B) 0
C) 6

No plays til Thursday



Shouldn't be:

A) 7
B) 0
C) 5
?????????
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