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Aussie's WNBA Thread

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Posted: #1
Hey all,

Time has come for another WNBA season... Some big player movements during the off-season and plenty of rookies as well coming through.

I went through all the regular season games from last season and here is what I found. Also please note that the lines I used were opening lines from SBR website.

Indiana Fever
7-10 ATS as favourites
8-9 ATS as dogs
15-19 ATS all together
Over/Under 13-21

San Antonio SilverStars
4-4 ATS as favorites
12-14 ATS as dogs
16-18 ATS altogether
Over/Under 13-22

New York Liberty
2-4 ATS as fav
13-14-1 ATS as dogs
15-18-1 ATS altogether
Over/Under 15-19

Tulsa Shock
5-5 ATS as fav's
13-11 ATS as dogs
18-16 ATS altogher
Over/Under 15-19

Atlanta Dream
11-13-1 ATS as favs
5-4 ATS as dogs
16-17-1 ATS altogether
Over/Under 18-16

Seattle Storm
4-5 ATS as favs
15-11 ATS as dogs
19-15 ATS altogether
Over/Under 13-21 

LA Sparks
16-13-1 ATS as favs
0-4 ATS as dogs
16-17-1 ATS altogether
Over/Under 14-20

Phoenix Mercury
7-14-1 ATS as favs
5-7 ATS as dogs
12-21-1 ATS altogether
Over/Under 15-19

Conneticut Sun
4-5 ATS as favs
9-14-2 ATS as dogs
13-19-2 ATS altogether
Over/Under 17-17

Minnesota Lynx
23-8 ATS as favs
0-2-1 ATS as dogs
23-10-1 ATS altogether
Over/Under 15-19

Washington Mystics
7-4 ATS as favs
13-8-2 ATS as dogs
20-12-2 ATS altogether
Over/Under 15-20

Total season Over/Unders: 115-90 

Big player movements (only noting above average players)
TIna Charles: Sun - Liberty
Swin Cash: Sky - Dream
Mistie Bass: Sun - Phoenix
Candice Wiggins: Shock - Sparks
Katie Douglas: Fever - Sun
Kara Lawson: Sun - Mystics
Matee Avajon: Mystics - Dream
Alex Bentley: Dream - Sun

There are a few more and they can be found at https://www.wnba.com/news/player-movement-central-2014.html

So the Lynx, Dream, Sky and Storm and Sparks have not really changed their rosters too much from last season. The biggest team changes are the Conneticut Sun. 

BOL this season everyone, looking forward to it 

 
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Posted: #2
good stuff Oz, I don't see how we don't take every under to start the season
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Posted: #3
Hmm. I think the Sun will suck even more this season. Lost their only good player and added a couple of nobody's.
 
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Posted: #4
  GL        Nice info 
 
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Posted: #5
Why so quiet of late in the rugby forum ADU? 

Good luck in the WNBA season 
 
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Posted: #6
Nice
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:

Why so quiet of late in the rugby forum ADU? 

Good luck in the WNBA season 

Hey Rod, Cheers buddy, mate having a little lay-off on the rugby because the league was just very inconsistent but will be back at it this weekend with a few plays.


 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by miami2006:

What's up Aussie nice to see you in the WNBA forum.  Barely starting betting WNBA last year and was cashing out on the Lynx all the way into their championship.  Good luck this year.  Who do you like opening day? 

Hey Miami,

WNBA is great, lines aren't as sharp and the girls actually shoot better %'s than the NBA fellas.

For tomorrow, I lean Liberty +2.5 and Dream -9.

Lynx have 3 main players out tomorrow but I have a rule, never go against the Lynx any day of the week.I won't go against them at all this season unless for some reason the line looks too good. 

Liberty have taken Tina Charles from Sun and I think she will work well with Pondexter. Sun have 11 new players in their roster and out of those 11 new players, they have a combined total of 4 years experience.

Dream I think will open a can of whoop #$%@ on the Stars tomorrow. Will wait for line movement on that.

Sparks should be too strong for the Storm but the line is  a little big for my liking.

Sky are missing 2 massive players, Prince and Fowles. Fever might be the play in that. I loved the Sky until I saw that these 2 players are out. Big loss.

BOL this year Miami
 
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Posted: #9
Lets get this season rolling

Season: 0-0

Liberty @ Sun: Liberty +3

The addition of Tina Charles is a big improvement for the Liberty side along with a fit Pondexter, Pierson, Carson and Braxton. They have lost Kamiko Williams for the season with a knee injury which is disappointing but they have enough players on their roster to cover that position. Using last season stats and player efficiency stats, the Liberty are one of the leading teams in this department. Lets hope their new 198 centimetre Tina Charles gets off to a great new start with her new team against her old team.

The Sun actually have the lowest player efficiency rankings using last year's stats. (Please note im using individual efficiency stats, not team efficiency stats). Tina Charles gave this team their only hope last season and I think the Sun will miss her badly. They have brought in Katie Douglas from the Fever but I think that the wrong team is favored here and I will take the points just in case because it is a road game for the Liberty.

BOL everyone

 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by AussieDownUnder:

Lets get this season rolling

Season: 0-0

Liberty @ Sun: Liberty +3

The addition of Tina Charles is a big improvement for the Liberty side along with a fit Pondexter, Pierson, Carson and Braxton. They have lost Kamiko Williams for the season with a knee injury which is disappointing but they have enough players on their roster to cover that position. Using last season stats and player efficiency stats, the Liberty are one of the leading teams in this department. Lets hope their new 198 centimetre Tina Charles gets off to a great new start with her new team against her old team.

The Sun actually have the lowest player efficiency rankings using last year's stats. (Please note im using individual efficiency stats, not team efficiency stats). Tina Charles gave this team their only hope last season and I think the Sun will miss her badly. They have brought in Katie Douglas from the Fever but I think that the wrong team is favored here and I will take the points just in case because it is a road game for the Liberty.

BOL everyone


I'm with you AussieDownUnder!!! Let's get this started!! 
 
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Posted: #11
morning, WNBA is back GL everyone...if you ain't following the $ in the early season games you are missing the boat. I don't think there's any way I can "cap" an opening game b/c there is no history so I'll let the change in lines and totals from the openers tell me what to bet. Historically in 1st week of season if you follow the money you will be all right.

NY @ Conn opened Conn -1.5 and 147.5 now Conn -4 in some spots and 145.5, if I play it's Conn as 60% on NY and line keeps going Conn's way

Minn @ Wash opened Minn -2.5 and 154.4 now sits at Minn -5 and 157, if I play it'll be Minn and the over

SA @ Atl opened Atl -11 and 153.5 now sits at Atl -9 and 156, if I play it would be SA +9 and over

Ind @ Chi opened Chi -10.5 and 146.5 now swung to Ind -2 and 143, if I play it's Ind and under

LA @ Sea opened LA -5 and 152.5 now adjusted to LA -4 and 149, if I play it's Sea and under

follow the money, there isn't a ton of money coming in on WNBA let's face it so be smart
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Posted: #12
Good stats, Wagers. Totally agree with you that it is almost impossible to cap early on. Not sure about the smart money theory so we will see.

I will probably not play much today, if at all. Might have to deal with Euroleague losses first. One team I like is Washington: great coach and that young team has more experience now, I think I might like WSH 1H and/or FG. Maybe also Sparks: who knows what Magic did to that team and Parker had a great regular season in Europe breaking a few records there.


 
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Posted: #13
my plays at a measley 1 unit to start the year

Conn -4
under 145.5
San Antonio +9
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Posted: #14
What do you know, I hit all three Euroleague plays I posted last night in the NBA thread. The line moved in the opposite direction to my leans by the way, but it did not matter. Real blew Barca by 30+points with a line set at -3.5 and moved to -3-2.5 by the game time. CSKA had an expected but epic meltdown. Check this out:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjGKd8kTMxk

So I am flying high, also hit a small totals parlay, and a couple of small World Hockey plays. I think I will probably play my initial WNBA leans then.

 
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Actually, getting my lazy arse off the couch and after doing some research, I like Lynx 1H/FG. The Mystics have lost a lot of experience from last year and I think they will be struggling early in the season. Still liking the Sparks though.
 
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I really do not understand why the Liberty is a dog in this spot. Is there something going behind the closed doors or is that because of the #1 draft pick the Sun got ? NYL ML looks interesting.
 
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Hey Ax, great work buddy on Euro. The Sun beat the Liberty 3-0 in pre season games but Pondexter, Charles and Pierson did not play in those games. I think that's maybe why the Sun are favs and because of H/C. Be careful of Lynx today, they are missing Brunson, Peters and Wright
 
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Hey Aussie. Thanks for the heads up. Yeah, I knew that Brunson would be missing. Still, I think the Mystics lost a lot of core players from last year and as long as Whalen, Moore and Augustus are playing I think the Lynx have a good chance to dominate from the start.
 
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Posted: #19
Wild swings in Washington. Lynx open a 15-pt lead late in the 1Q only to allow WSH to tie it up with a minute left, but somehow the Lynx won the 1H by 4 points and covered. And of course with no live betting options I cannot hedge after a run. Woo-hoo I won my first WNBA play of this season ! The question is do I dare to take 2H Lynx ?
 
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Yeah nice hit Ax. I thought that 2Q was going to stuff your play up. Massive day for you so far with Euro and WNBA.

I'm leaning Sparks -4 @ Storm. I just think they have too many attacking options. Maybe the over is a better play because the Storm have picked up Nicole Powell (Shock), Langhorne (Mystics) and Tina Thompson retired last season. They played a very slow Grizzlies kind of pace last year the Storm but the Sparks love to run and gun and have some great players who shot at high %'s. Will look deeper into this play.
 
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Yeah, Aussie we are leaning the same way on Sparks and NYL. Let's see if NYL can hold on in the 2H. I also fancy the Lynx to keep on keeping on in the 2H and cover -3 and probably under. Go Sparks, but not b/c of Magic Johnson.

By the way, Ibaka is out for the rest of the playoffs. The OKC series price jumped form +135 to +170. Time to hedge my Spurs WC futures bet. I still do not like how close that series is likely going to be.
 
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Wow, thanks for the heads up with Ibaka.. Thats a big loss. How about Parker? Is he good to go 1st game?

As for the Sparks, the game total my book has right now is 149.

Out of 17 road games last season for the Sparks, 10 went over this amount.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by AussieDownUnder:

Wow, thanks for the heads up with Ibaka.. Thats a big loss. How about Parker? Is he good to go 1st game?

As for the Sparks, the game total my book has right now is 149.

Out of 17 road games last season for the Sparks, 10 went over this amount.

Also the first 5 road games last season for the Sparks flew over, with 161, 178, 176, 152 & 164. Flew over apart from the 152. Heavy lean on the over.
 
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Yeah, but the Storm is notorious for slow ball. I am not touching the totals until I get a feel for the season. I am going small anyway in the beginning, about half of the unit size I use for NBA and most of my other plays. NYL ML is looking good, my 2H parlay with MIN -3 + u78.5 looks doomed.

Ibaka's injury is obviously a big blow for OKC, but I still think they can make the life miserable for Spurs. It is gonna be a close series. Parker is also not going to be 100%.
 
 
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Oh, Parker says he will play. His strain is less serious than it was in last year's finals. But the problem is that he can probably aggravate it at any time, given his age and the way he plays. I do no not think he will able to get open J's against Westbrook so that means he'll have to take it to the hole which should result in a lot contact. We'll see. Maybe Mills can carry them in some games.
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