Starting a thread for all my picks.
Record to date: 1-1
June 9
I have Seattle at 80.91% and Chicago at 53.61% to straight up win. Any ML at -425 or below is +EV for Seattle. Historically, my data shows to always bet on the underdog if a game is between 50-55%, so taking Indiana is the +EV bet.
Record to Date: 3-1
June 10
I have Washington at 54.35% winning. This has the works to be a close game, so I'm curious to see what ends up happening. Anything below ML -120 is +EV. I'm curious to see what happens with the 50-55% category, for the NBA season +EV was always betting the underdog within that % but that could be different for the WNBA. Will adjust accordingly as more data comes in.
GL tonight
Record to Date: 4-1
June 11
I have Seattle at 83.25% and Phoenix at 54.73%. Anything below ML -497 for Seattle is +EV and anything below ML -121 for Phoenix is +EV. Still curious to see how the range of 50-55% plays out... So far in that category I'm 2-0 which doesn't mean a whole lot in statistic terms but is nice to see from a betting perspective.
My thoughts so far: This is my first season with the WNBA and I think it's extremely interesting compared to the NBA, I find that there are more opportunities and am optimistic in the the fact that it can be more profitable than the NBA. Not a big fan of the scheduling, there's a lot more back-to-back matchups which is unfavorable from a statistics standpoint.
@ImagineGreatnes
Sorry for not being clear, let me explain. I calculate my own odds through a series of data analysis which I believe to be accurate from my NBA record this past season which was 185-102, 185 winning bets and 102 losing bets (64% win rate). I use the same method for WNBA.
I post my own odds of the teams playing everyday, so today I calculated Seattle having an 83.25% chance of winning and Phoenix at a 54.73% chance of winning. Every bet I look at is only the money line. My calculated % (not Vegas) of 83.25% equals the American odds of -497. I'm recommending any money line bet for Seattle under -497 (so -490 or -300 for example), which I believe to be a long term profitable bet. For Phoenix, I have them at a 54.73% chance of winning which equals American odds of -121. Any money line bet under -121 (so -110 or +120 for example) is a long term profitable bet.
If you just want to bet on todays game then use my advice as a guide! However some bets aren't considered profitable, like I can only find Phoenix around -140, so Im not betting them because I'm saying only bet them at -121 or better.
This is what my data shows for each individual game. I'm not playing spreads, O/U's, or Parlays, only the money line. Thank you for asking. Ill be sure to be more concise in my future posts!
Record to Date: 5-2
June 12
I have Chicago at 56.97% and Minnesota at 58.52%. Both teams have been getting better as the season has progressed and also Indiana and LA havn't been playing well at all.
Todays Picks
Money Line - Chicago
Money Line - Minnesota
Normally I post the odds I think a bet should be under but today that isn't necessary
@Casey163
In general, yes, you are correct. I do something a tad different that I wont go in depth with but it has to deal with the amount of wins/losses in a certain % range. Even though Fever is +EV in theory (meaning their implied probability is higher than the Vegas odds), it doesn't necessarily mean its the right bet based on other factors I look at.
Hope that helps!
Record to Date: 7-2
June 13
Lots of games today! I have Seattle: 57.89%, Atlanta: 58.20%, Las Vegas: 73.68%, and Phoenix: 58.76%.
For the odds, max means don't bet above. So if its at -137 don't bet -150, -170, etc.. only bet that or under.
Todays Picks
Money Line: Seattle, max odds of -137
Money Line: Atlanta, max odds of -140
Money Line: Las Vegas, max odds of -280
Money Line: Phoenix, max odds of -142
Notes: I like Atlanta the most as they are the consensus underdogs.
Record to Date: 10-3
June 15
I have Seattle at 96.11%, Minnesota at 58.74%, and Las Vegas at 94.00%.
Todays Picks: Money Line
Seattle max odds of -2470
Minnesota max odds of -355
Las Vegas max odds of -1567
Notes: I know Minnesota’s odds don’t equal the implied probability. Most won’t match up from here on out but the 90s are the same as I we haven’t seen that yet this season.
Record to Date: 12-5
June 17
I have Seattle at 54.09%, Washington at 62.07%, Chicago at 73.63%, Minnesota at 59.60%, and Las Vegas at 94.15%.
Picks for today: Money Line
Seattle max odds of -150
Washington max odds of -164
Chicago max odds of -280
Minnesota max odds of -200
Las Vegas max odds of ANY
Record to Date: 24-13
June 27
I have Chicago at 74.76%, Las Vegas at 52.21%, and Phoenix at 55.24%.
Picks for Today:
Chicago max odds of -300
Pick the underdog for LV vs Seattle
Phoenix max odds of -170
Notes: The reason why I say the underdog for LV vs Seattle is because of what I've found in my data. That game is in the 50-55% range; so far, there have been 11 games within this range, 5 wins and 6 losses. I thought this was going to happen because that's exactly what happened with NBA when I did this. The win/lose record should remain around .500 overtime. Im still going to keep track of the favorite for my record purposes but AM recommending the underdog as the pick (whoever that is). So if LV loses ill gain another lose in the records.
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