Quant - Picks Thread

Record to Date: 28-14 (66.67%)

June 30

Glad to see this week starting off better already. I have Dallas at 51.18%, Phoenix at 50.63%, and Las Vegas at 93.39%.

Picks for Today: Money Line

Whoever the underdog is for Chicago vs Dallas

Whoever the Underdog is for Minnesota vs Phoenix

Any line for Las Vegas

Notes: Read my post from June 27th for the reasoning on the underdog, even if one team is the underdog when the lines open and change, pick whoever the underdog is at the time you see it. For Vegas, I personally don't like betting games with lines this big assuming my % and the odds makers are similar, ill be surprised if a money line is even posted. Risk to reward isn't worth it.

Record: 29-16

July 1

I have Connecticut at 78.40%.

Pick for Today:

Connecticut max odds of -363

Record to Date: 30-16

July 2

I have Dallas at 58.23%, Las Vegas at 91.63% and Seattle at 71.08%.

Picks for Today: Money Line

Dallas max odds of -130

Las Vegas max odds of ANY

Seattle max odds of -250 

Another quick question, Conn was never anywhere close to -363, same as Seattle today (and many others before this).  So are these just hypothetical situations? If you're showing Conn -363 and Seattle -250, you would be getting massive EV taking the dog. Or this just looks like you take ML favorite every day regardless of the line, and the when it is 50% +/- 5%, take the dog?

Also, if you are getting these massive ML favorites 900 cents shorter than the actual odds, please direct me to that book!