WNBA 2024

I'm starting the season handicapping four different plays, two for identifying Wrong Favs, two for totals.

Looking for spots to play On or Fade.

First up . . .

Wash/NY Un 164

Record: 0-1

Today, Atl -4'

Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-1
(Sides 1-0, Favs 1-0, Dogs 0-0; Totals 0-1; Ov 0-0, Un 0-1)

Review: Q1, 2, & 3 ALL ended with the score tied.
Q4? Atl 24-16.
Yay team.

I remember from watching him last year, LA coach Miller always had that "deer in the headlights" look. Saw it again last night.

Playing blind here, my methods require a database of scores from games played. I should wait a few weeks to gather some data but what the hell, it's small bucks for fun and action, hoping to find and get on a streak early, before regression sets in.

Today, a side and total meet parameters to qualify for one of my spots, NY and Un.
I'm taking NY and fading the Un.

The NY spot is the first to qualify this season, so 0-0 there.
The Un is 0-1, reason enough to Fade until it eventually wins one, but there's also a little trend history.
NY vs Ind LY (Last Year) saw totals land on 189, 184, 182, and 163; three of four high enough to surpass tonight's number, 168'.
And NY was 4-0 vs Ind last year, winning by 11, 18, 8, and 17; all enough to covers tonight's number -7'.

NY won their opener by 5 on the Rd vs Wash while Ind lost by 21 to Conn, surrendering 92 pts.
Looking for similar results from Indy tonight.

NY -7'
NY/Ind Ov 168'

Adding:

Stewart Ov 8' rebs -117

Recap: 2-1
Record: 3-2
(Sides 2-0, Favs 2-0, Dogs 0-0; Totals 0-2; Ov 0-1, Un 0-1; props 1-0)

(*correction: Ind was the WF spot last night, I faded it and played the Fav.)

Review:

NY wins by 36 pts layin' 7'

Stewie snags 10 rebounds, clearing the 8'

The Ov 168' lost by the hook. Opened 167', closings I saw 170. An earlier buy would have gotten the W at 167' or push at 168.
Two missed FT's in the final minute didn't help.
Worst part was Indy had the last possession, up by 36 NY would have probably allowed a clear path to the basket for a layup but the Fever player dribbled out the clock (bitch.)

One play qualifies tonight, Min as the WF. This spot is 0-1 so . . .

Sea -1'

Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-3
(Sides 2-1, Favs 2-1, Dogs 0-0; Totals 0-2; Ov 0-1, Un 0-1; props 1-0)

Missed with Seattle last time in, one of those frustrating games that makes you want to take a shotgun and "go Elvis" on your TV.

Got a situational spot today that has a 0-0 record in WNBA but was my highest W % in NBA, so . . .

Atl -5'

Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-4
(Sides 2-2, Favs 2-2, Dogs 0-0; Totals 0-2; Ov 0-1, Un 0-1; props 1-0)

Last night's L by the hook with Atl -5' was due to a bad buy.

It opened at -4' so I missed out on the best number.

I saw Atl -5' with a higher price on Atl and figured it might go up, so I bought it early in the day.

I figured wrong. It went back down to -5, which would have gotten me a Push.

It closed at 6/6'.

Tonight:

Ind +5'

Recap: 1-0

Record: 4-4

(Sides 3-2, Favs 2-2, Dogs 1-0; Totals 0-2; Ov 0-1, Un 0-1; props 1-0)

On my last play Ind failed to get their first win of the season but succeeded in getting me a win at +5', losing by 2. And that's all that really matters.

Tonight I'm using them again. They opened -5, which was too high and the market is correcting itself, now -4'/-4.

These teams are equally bad, all stats across the board - records, offense, defense - so the -4 is about 2 points more than I'm comfortable laying with Indy.

But I have a few things going for me:

LA is not just a terrible team but despite his past success elsewhere I swear their coach looks lost sometimes and makes questionable decisions. Always prefer having my money riding against them than on them.

The Fever are winless at home, sooner or later they'll treat their loyal fans (who have been coming out in droves to watch Clark) with a win, and with LA in town tonight's as good a chance as any.

But mostly my reason for the play is I have a situational play that gives LA a 67% chance of losing in this game.

Ind -4

Recap: 0-1

Record: 4-5

(Sides 3-3, Favs 2-3, Dogs 1-0; Totals 0-2; Ov 0-1, Un 0-1; props 1-0)

Tonight I'm on CC three pt'ers over 2' -147

I don't usually lay juice like this but I think she'll play with a chip on her shoulder over the next couple games. She's already averaging 8.7 three's per game and took 13 of them in Friday's game, the day after the Olympic roster story broke (no politics here, I'm not commenting on it either way, just noting the stat.)

Connecticut is the top PPG defense in the league and Indiana will no doubt be behind in the 4th quarter, which means Caitlin should be chucking up a good amount of threes. 2' is a bad number in this spot, just my op.

Forgot to add, she was 4 of 11 from three point range in the first meeting with Connecticut this year. 

And 3 of 7 in their second meeting.

1- 1 tonight, mid Q1.

BLOWOUT  CONN 10-1

Yeah, bad spot for anyone after Conn lost their undefeated record to New York Saturday. Definitely came out fired up tonight.

Clark was 2 of 4 at halftime. Based on averages she'll take at least 4-5 shots in the second half, I only need one.

Looking good, right?

No.

"Coach" Sides pulls her out of the game with just over 4 minutes played in the third quarter. I figured it's just a short rest, she'll be back in before the end of the 3rd for sure.

No.

Sides sits her top scorer for the rest of the third quarter. At the commercial break I figure Clark will be in to start the 4th.

No.

Sides sits Clark for more than half of the third and the entire fourth quarter and I have zero chance.

You pull your starters in the 4th in a blowout, not a few minutes into the third. I don't follow this s*** too closely but I've heard rumblings that Sides is a closet Caitlin hater. I don't know about that, but I'm pretty sure she hates me, screwed me tonight (not the good kind.)

A packed house in Connecticut was cheering Clark on even though she's on the other team. People paid to see her and didn't get much of a chance to thanks to Sides.

Clark averages 33.5 minutes per game.

She got 22 tonight. 

Record: 4-6, (-297 based on $110/100 wager)

Last time in (June 10, wow, didn't realize it's been that long since I shared one of my picks here) Clark got benched for most of the second half (Coach Sides is terrible and I'll wager she's gone before next season.) With limited minutes, Clark finished with 2 three pointers, I needed 2', cost me a buck forty-seven.

Posting this a day ahead of time, I'm on the over 154 when second place Connecticut visits third place Minnesota tomorrow.

Earlier this season they met and the game needed OT to surpass the number in this one. Reg time finished at 144, 10 points fewer than I need here. But the Lynx shot just 19% from three point land, 4-21 and that number can only go up, especially at home.

A defensive struggle is expected between the #1 (Con) and #2 (Min) defenses in the league but I'm going the other way.

The Sun avg 153 PPG and Min avg's 157, so yeah, the number is tight.

Historical standpoint, two of three went over this number when they met in the playoffs last year, and three of four reg season went over. Recent play, five of Min's last ten went over this number, six of ten for Con.

Six of Con's nine road games this season surpassed 154, six of Min's ten home games surpassed 154.

Like I said, the number is tight. But I'm on it.

Con/Min over 154

@VeritasAlways

 I lost second half over on that game, got a bit of luck yesterday, under 163 in LA, who hit a 3 as clock expired to land on 162. totals getting tuff as season goes.

Jeg53,

Congrats on the under with LA.

Yeah, agree, totals are getting tougher to hit as the numbers become sharper, and even more difficult to win when you buy as poorly as I did yesterday. Don't know what I was thinking buying it early, mentioned in my post that it was expected to be a defensive struggle. That means most bettors would likely look at the under. Cost myself 3' points as the numbers 150' this morning.

Good luck with your plays today.