3M Open Picks, Outrights, & Best Bets: Can Burns Return to Winner's Circle?

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Twin Cities for the 3M Open and it’s a top-heavy field with many of the world’s best opting out following last week’s Open Championship.

Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala, and Akshay Bhatia headline the betting favorites in the 3M Open odds, and our free golf picks have you covered for all the action in Blaine, Minnesota.

Best 3M Open picks

• Sam Burns to win outright (+1,800 at FanDuel)
• Keegan Bradley to win outright (+4,000 at BetRivers)
• Taylor Pendrith Top 30 (+110 at bet365)
• Rico Hoey Top 40 (+110 at bet365)
• Tony Finau Top 20 After Round 1 (+175 at bet365)

3M Open outright picks

Pick to win: Sam Burns (+1,800 at FanDuel)
A final-round 78 spiraled Sam Burns to a T31 finish at The Open, but there were a lot of positives to take away for the five-time PGA Tour winner. He gained true strokes everywhere but off the tee and his Saturday 65 tied for the lowest round of the tournament.

While he's having another solid season with six Top 10s, his last win is back in the now-defunct WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. So, given there’s a case he’s the best and most accomplished player in this field, a sixth win is definitely in play considering his well-rounded game. He's third in this field in true total strokes gained total, after all.

Additionally, I value Burns ranking seventh on Tour in total driving and his past success in this event. He’s played the weekend in both trips to TPC Twin Cities and topped out with a T7 showing during the 2019 edition while finishing first in true strokes gained off-the-tee and 11th in true strokes gained tee-to-green.

Sleeper pick to win: Keegan Bradley (+4,000 at BetRivers)
Not only is this an outlier high  +4,000 BetRivers price for Keegan Bradley, but the six-time Tour winner enters with an excellent statistical profile for this event. He’s 11th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fifth in true strokes gained putting in this field across his past 34 measured rounds.

Additionally, while I typically wouldn’t be thrilled about a missed cut in his most recent event, Bradley will benefit from only playing a pair of rounds at Royal Troon and being fully focused on the 3M Open and without much of a major championship hangover looming.

I also value him ranking 18th on Tour in total driving, and he ranked 11th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 14th in true strokes gained approach during his T39 showing at the 2021 3M Open. Ranking 67th in putting was Bradley’s undoing, but he’s been better with the short stick of late and ranks a respectable 34th in the metric during the highlighted 34-round stretch. He also gained true strokes on the greens in four consecutive events before last week.

Finally, the +115 bet365 odds for Bradley to finish Top 30 have my attention as a complementary bet to this outright ticket.

3M Open prop picks

Finishing position pick: Taylor Pendrith Top 30 (+110 at bet365)
There aren’t any concerning shortcomings in Taylor Pendrith’s game and he’s played the weekend in eight of his past nine events with a win, two more Top 10s, and another three Top-25 finishes. The Canadian has gained true strokes across the board during the run, including during last week’s opposite-field Barracuda Championship, where he carded a T5 result.

He ranks 12th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, seventh in true strokes gained putting, and fourth in true total strokes gained in this field during the nine-event stretch, and I also value his solid scoring metrics. He’s 27th in adjusted scoring average, 24th in Par-4 scoring average, and 41st in Par-5 scoring average on Tour this season. 

Finishing position pick: Rico Hoey Top 40 (+110 at bet365)
The promising Filipino has three Top-10 finishes and a T26 across his past four events, and his statistical profile fits the demands of TPC Twin Cities.

Rico Hoey ranks eighth on Tour in total driving, fifth on Tour in Par-5 scoring, and 26th in birdie-or-better percentage for the year. He's also 11th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 12th in true strokes gained putting in this field during the noted four-tournament heater.

3M Open first-round pick

Round 1 pick: Tony Finau After Round 1 (+175 at bet365)
I was surprised to see this long of a number for the betting favorite in a watered-down field to finish Top 20 in Round 1. Tony Finau was on the wrong side of the draw in The Open and he followed up his respectable opening-round 71 with an 81 and a quick exit.

Returning to TPC Twin Cities will be welcomed because the six-time PGA Tour winner has been a force in the 3M Open with his 2022 victory and another pair of Top 10s.

He leads the event in total strokes gained and enters pacing this year’s field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and true strokes gained on approach across his past 20 rounds. Add him ranking 19th in adjusted scoring average and 17th in Round 1 scoring average on Tour this season, and I’m anticipating a solid start from the bomber on Thursday.

3M Open Open odds

• Tony Finau: +1,000
• Sam Burns: +1,800
• Akshay Bhatia: +2,200
• Sahith Theegala: +2,200
• Luke Clanton: +2,800
• Keith Mitchell: +3,000
• Keegan Bradley: +3,000
• Tom Hoge: +3,300
• Billy Horschel: +3,500
• Taylor Pendrith: +3,500
• J.T. Poston: +3,500

Odds courtesy of FanDuel.

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