The PGA Tour leaves Hawaii for The American Express to kick-start the West Coast Swing, and a number of top players return to action, with Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, and Sungjae Im leading the way in the golf odds.
It’s a unique three-course, Pro-Am format this week, and the winner will need to card birdies in bunches to stay ahead of the field. Here are my top golf picks based on The American Express odds for the third PGA Tour event of the season.
Best American Express picks
- Thomas to win outright (+1600 at BetMGM)
- Burns to win outright (+2000 at Caesars)
- Hisatsune Top Japanese (+200 at DraftKings)
- Straka Top 40 (-105 at bet365)
- Burns Over 10.5 Round 1 pars (+110 at Caesars)
American Express outright picks
Pick: Justin Thomas
+1600 at BetMGM
Justin Thomas gained true strokes on the greens in each of his final three rounds at The Sentry to skyrocket up the leaderboard and finish T26 while ranking seventh in true strokes gained on approach. He finished T3 here last year while ranking sixth in true strokes tee-to-green and enters ranking first in this field in the metric across his past five events.
Additionally, despite a rough year on the greens, JT still finished 17th in adjusted scoring average and 32nd in birdie average on Tour last season. If the putts fall for him again this week, he’ll be in the mix for a second consecutive year.
Pick: Sam Burns
+2000 at Caesars
The five-time PGA Tour winner has a pair of T6s and two more Top 20s across his five trips to this event, and he’s also rattled off six consecutive Top 15s while ranking 15th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fourth in true strokes gained putting.
Sam Burns is a good fit for this birdie fest, too. He finished 18th in adjusted scoring average and fifth in birdie average on Tour last season, and he went 22-under across his final three rounds at The Sentry two weeks ago.
American Express prop picks
Nationality pick: Ryo Hisatsune Top Japanese
+200 at DraftKings
Ryo Hisatsune is the only Japanese golfer in the field to make the cut at last week's Sony Open and tee it up in this event in the past. He also fared well last season with a T11 at the Amex while carding another five Top 25s as a rookie.
Additionally, he ranked 26th in Par-4 scoring average, 34th in Par 4 birdie-or-better percentage, 41st in bogey avoidance, and 30th in total driving efficiency on Tour last season. He has a well-rounded game to continue his ascent in Year 2.
Still, this is ultimately a lean that Hisatsune’s full season of PGA Tour experience and familiarity with this unique three-course event pays off. At the same time, Takumi Kanaya, Rikuya Hoshino, and Kaito Onishi continue to struggle to find their respective footing for the second consecutive week.
Finishing position pick: Sepp Straka Top 40
-105 at bet365
Sepp Straka is a sneaky ball-striker who often flies under the radar despite being a two-time PGA Tour winner and sitting 36th in the Official World Golf Rankings. He’s also heading to this event in solid form with a T9-T15-T30 run across his past three events.
I’m most encouraged about him ranking second in driving accuracy, eighth in true strokes gained on approach, and 10th from tee to gree in this field across his past three events. Add gaining two strokes on the greens the past two weeks in the two Hawaii events, and Straka's positioned to play all four rounds and extend his mini heater.
It’s worth noting Straka hasn’t been uber consistent in this event with his T4 in 2020 standing out against a pair of missed cuts and a T49 in his last trip in 2022. However, a better track record would have him trading at far shorter odds.
American Express first-round pick
Prop pick: Sam Burns Over 10.5 Round 1 pars
+110 at Caesars
Returning to Burns, this is a sneaky market to target. He’s played four competitive rounds at La Quinta in this event and carded 12 pars three times, with the outlier coming in last year’s edition when he finished with 10.
Additionally, considering his Round 1 birdie total is set at 6.5 with -165 odds to the Under, I think we’re landing an incredibly fair price on the Over 10.5 pars.
La Quinta definitely qualifies as a short track as a 7,060-yard Par 72, but three of the four Par 3s are over 200 yards, and Burns isn’t going to turn every wedge shot into a tap-in birdie. I’m anticipating five or six circles, a square, and a lot of easy pars on the card at the conclusion of Thursday’s round.
American Express odds
- Sungjae Im: +1200
- Justin Thomas: +1400
- Sam Burns: +1600
- Patrick Cantlay: +1600
- Tony Finau: +2200
- Tom Kim: +2800
- Max Greyserman: +3000
- Kurt Kitayama: +3000
- Wyndham Clark: +3000
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
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