The storied Bay Hill Club and Lodge will host this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational as the PGA Tour’s Florida Swing picks up steam with the fourth signature event of the 2025 season.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and a dialed-in Rory McIlroy are atop the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds lists, but I’m looking further down the board with this week’s sleepers and longshot golf picks for the prestigious event.
Arnold Palmer Invitational sleeper picks
- Henley to win outright (+4500 at DraftKings)
- Conners to win outright (+7500 at bet365)
- Kirk to win outright (+20000 at bet365)
Picks were made on 3-4 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Arnold Palmer Invitational sleeper predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Russell Henley
+4500 at DraftKings
Russell Henley is as consistent as they come and has played the weekend in 18 consecutive events dating back to last April. He’s also impressively gained true strokes across the board while ranking 10th in true strokes gained on approach, 12th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, and 15th in true strokes gained putting during the stretch.
An important part of being successful at Bay Hill is navigating your way around the track, so while Henley lacks the distance of most of his peers, I value him ranking third in driving accuracy in this field during the 18-event stretch.
Henley finishing T4 here last year reinforces that his game fits the demands of Bay Hill.
Sleeper pick to win: Corey Conners
+7500 at bet365
While Corey Conners isn’t off to a roaring start this season, his track record at Bay Hill stands out ahead of his seventh trip to the event. His worst finish across his past four is a T21 in 2023, and the Canadian also finished solo third in the 2021 edition.
Even better, he’s gained true strokes on approach in each appearance, including finishing second in the metric last year and pacing the field in 2021.
We’re landing a long number because of the ho-hum current form, but returning to a track that fits his eye could pave the way to another Sunday in contention at the API.
Sleeper pick to win: Chris Kirk
+20000 at bet365
Considering Chris Kirk is a six-time PGA Tour winner and has five Top-15 finishes at this event — including four straight from 2018 through 2022 — these are long enough golf odds to slot him into flier territory.
The veteran’s current form is underwhelming, but he's gained true strokes on approach and on the greens in five of the past six trips to Bay Hill, and he's gained strokes around the greens in all six.
Simply put, he can golf his ball around this track. And while his T56 last week in the Cognizant Classic was nothing to write home about, he did finish 15th in true strokes gained approaches. He has a pair of out-of-nowhere wins the past two years, too.
